Jordan Love has the Green Bay Packers exactly where Aaron Rodgers left them: in need of a Week 18 win, at home against a surging divisional rival, to make the playoffs.
In 2023, that manifested in a 16-20 loss to the Detroit Lions in which Rodgers threw for only 205 yards with as many touchdowns (one) as interceptions. That’s the standard Love has to beat against a similarly ascendant team that had previously been the division’s doormat. The Chicago Bears enter the final week of the regular season with a 5-2 record in their last seven games. In that stretch, they’ve fielded the league’s toughest defense.
That’s going to make this January matchup much different than the last time these squads faced each other in September. It’s going to put an inconsistent, high-ceiling young quarterback to the test.
Love has been occasionally great and briefly awful in his first season as a full-time starter, sometimes within the same half of football. As 2023 wore on, he tightened up his downfield throws to truly take advantage of the openings head coach Matt LaFleur and a deep young receiving corps created. This led to a comeback from a 3-6 start to a spot controlling the team’s playoff destiny in the final week of the season.
That emergence is reflected in this week’s quarterback rankings, where Love sits a hair outside the top 10. He hasn’t been *quite* that good when you crunch his game tape, but there’s no denying his talent on any given play — or his ability to brain fart his way into trouble on others. So if he’s not a top 10 quarterback, who is? Fortunately, we’ve got advanced stats to help us sort that out.
Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.
The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 32 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 272 snaps in 17 weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:
Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers visually into tiers and you get an imperfect seven-layer system that looks like this:
These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.
1
It's still Brock Purdy at the top, even if he isn't MVP
1. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.204 EPA+CPOE composite
Purdy remains absurdly efficient, delivering the ball to open receivers in space for a team that leads the NFL in yards after catch (6.6 per reception). The 49ers are 2-4 when he throws an interception and 10-0 when he does not.
2
Very good playoff bound quarterbacks (or maybe not, if you're Josh Allen)
2. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.152 EPA+CPOE composite
3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.143
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.142
5. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: 0.134
6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.133
Allen’s Bills got off to a rough enough start (6-6) that he still needs a win in Week 18 over Tagovailoa’s Dolphins to clinch a playoff spot. Since Buffalo already beat Miami this fall (by 28 points) and the Dolphins have struggled mightily against quality opponents, he’s got solid odds of getting there.
3
Jordan Love, nearly great
7. Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.121 EPA+CPOE composite
8. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.119
9. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.115
10. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.105
11. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.103
12. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.103
Browning’s debut pegs him as a top 10 quarterback even though his efforts have resulted in defeat each of the last two weeks and dropped Cincinnati out of the playoff race. He’s not this good and he scrambles with the dexterity of someone trying to run in a dream, but at the very least Browning has proven his worth as a viable backup and spot starter.
4
A mix of ascendant and replaceable
13. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: 0.095 EPA+CPOE composite
14. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.091
15. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.086
16. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.081
17. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.080
Wilson’s locked in here and will be a commodity once the Broncos release him before the 2024 league year hits its fifth day — the date his 2025 salary would become fully guaranteed. He’s flawed in his second act as an NFL quarterback, but still efficient enough to provide value in his diminished state. Lawrence has slid down the rankings after playing injured for a while and then sitting out Week 17. Hopefully that gave him enough time to reclaim his mid-season form.
5
We expected better
18. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.073 EPA+CPOE composite
19. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.073
20. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.069
Two injured quarterbacks and the veteran free agent signing who’s turned every Saints game into a coin flip. Herbert and Burrow should be better in 2024. Carr? It doesn’t seem likely.
6
A few risers making their case for 2024 (or playing their way out of contention)
21. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 0.053 EPA+CPOE composite
22. Gardner Minshew II, Indianapolis Colts: 0.044
23. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: 0.040
24. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.038
25. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: 0.032
26. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons: 0.025
Minshew has pushed the Colts into the playoff picture and has entered the Teddy Bridgewater/Tyrod Taylor/Nick Foles zone where he’s worthy of a significant contract even if he’s not entirely trustable as a franchise quarterback. Fields is making the Bears’ decisions with the top overall pick in next year’s draft and head coach Matt Eberflus’ employment status difficult by playing solid enough football to win games against the backdrop of the league’s top defense. Howell and Ridder have each fallen on hard times and are unlikely to enter their third seasons in the NFL as projected starters.
7
Bad (starting) quarterbacks
27. Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals/Minnesota Vikings: 0.020 EPA+CPOE composite
28. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.019
29. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.018
30. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 0.011
31. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: 0.008
32. Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.001
Of this group, Young has the most potential. That’s an obvious statement since he’s 2023’s top overall draft pick but also a sad one since he’s sandwiched between Kenny Pickett and Mac Jones in these rankings. O’Connell is a bit of a mess, but he’s had enough moments to at least enter 2024 as the team’s top quarterback over Jimmy Garoppolo, who isn’t quite uncuttable next offseason but who would incur roughly $15 million in dead salary cap space if let go.
