It would be patronizing to open this ranking with a warning about small sample sizes, right? You all know that just because Jimmy Garoppolo was a top five quarterback in Week 1 doesn’t mean he’ll stay that way — or that advanced metrics like completion percentage over expected (CPOE) or expected points added (EPA) aren’t meaningful.
Right, because that’s where we are. 60 minutes of game play per team — though Josh Allen got slightly more — have dropped the first batch of quarterback data into our hands for analysis. And while there are several ways to measure passers, these rankings use advanced stats in hopes of parsing out a player’s overall impact and accounting for the defenses they’ve played. But with limited numbers to draw from, we get some figures that don’t quite pass the smell test.
This is a problem that corrects itself over time as more data points are established and outliers become apparent. But after Week 1 I can tell you, well, no quarterback in the league was more valuable than Jordan Love. Three slots behind him was the man who engineered all of 17 points against the Denver Broncos, Garoppolo.
Phew, OK. Let’s talk about these stats. EPA is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength, considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.
The other piece of the puzzle is CPOE, which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 32 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 16 snaps in Week 1 — you get a chart that looks like this:
Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get a big ol’ jumble that looks like this:
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers. That makes it tough to separate this year’s quarterbacks into tiers at such an early date. Instead, we’ll kick off the season by ranking each QB by adjusted EPA/play alone and wait for CPOE numbers to stabilize a bit. So how do these 32 quarterbacks shake out in an entirely-too-small-to-be-meaningful sample size?
1
Elite, at least briefly
1. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.546 adjusted EPA/play
2. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.525
3. Matthew Stafford: 0.514
4. Jimmy Garoppolo: 0.476
Love didn’t fit the ball into many tight windows but didn’t have to; the Bears’ coverage frequently got lost on third down, allowing him to thrive. Tagovailoa resumed the upward trajectory from his injury-shortened 2022 to upset the Chargers. Stafford turned Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell into 100-yard receivers, incredibly. Garoppolo’s average pass traveled fewer than seven yards beyond the line of scrimmage by he completed 20 out of 26 of them, riding Jakobi Meyers to a spot on the top line.
2
Guys who coasted in a rout
5. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.345 adjusted EPA/play
6. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.339
Prescott didn’t have to do much but looked good doing so — with the exception of some frustrating drops from his tight ends. Purdy went a long way proving 2022 was no fluke thanks to his ability to escape pressure and retain accuracy downfield.
3
Guys who've burned us before
7. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: 0.198 adjusted EPA/play
7. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.198
9. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.141
10. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.125
Wilson played better in his first game under Sean Payton and the outcome was extremely familiar: not enough points in a close loss. Carr looked somewhat revitalized in New Orleans. Goff led a comeback victory in Arrowhead Stadium, which furthers the hypothesis that he’s back. Herbert fell victim to a very Chargers finish and we’re gonna need proof of concept that Kellen Moore has revitalized his deep passing game (only three completions that traveled 13-plus yards downfield Sunday).
4
No way, Patrick Mahomes, really?
11. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.054 adjusted EPA/play
12. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.039
13. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: 0.019
Mayfield was 2022’s worst quarterback by a significant margin but he appeared recharged en route to a road win in Minnesota. Cousins put up big stats and messed around in the red zone to help hand Mayfield that win. Mahomes didn’t have Travis Kelce and was let down by his wideouts repeatedly in a frustrating loss. He won’t be down here for long.
5
Shaking off the rust (we hope)
14. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: -0.023 adjusted EPA/play
15. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: -0.029
16. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: -0.033
17. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: -0.04
18. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: -0.041
19. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: -0.063
20. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: -0.091
21. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: -0.094
22. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: -0.113
Almost two-thirds of the league’s quarterbacks performed below the established average standard in Week 1, reinforcing what we already knew: this season started off gross. In this case, it means Zach Wilson is more efficient on a per-play basis than Trevor Lawrence or Lamar Jackson. Again, I implore you to take this with a grain of salt and remember that small sample sizes don’t reflect a player’s actual worth.
6
The young guys (and also Ryan Tannehill for some reason)
23. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: -0.155 adjusted EPA/play
24. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: -0.161
25. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: -0.187
26. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons: -0.198
27. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: -0.217
28. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans: -0.243
29. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: -0.315
Hurts had some struggles against a potent Patriots defense but also wasn’t asked to do too much after taking an early 16-0 lead. Ridder handed the ball off significantly more than he threw it (and only three of those throws went more than 10 yards downfield). Both their teams won, so complaints are limited. The rest of this group can be chalked up to early season growing pains except for Tannehill, whose backslide continues in 2023.
7
Oh my god, Joe Burrow
30. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: -0.423 adjusted EPA per play
31. Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals: -0.425
32. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: -0.476
The man who claimed the “Grossest Quarterback” crown in Week 1 was, unsurprisingly, the worst passer to take the field on opening weekend. The Browns just mess with him, somehow. Jones regressed badly, albeit in a rainstorm and with an offense forced out of its comfort zone by a big early deficit. Dobbs performed roughly to expectations, which is a good thing for an Arizona team who’d like to lock in the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
