I was ready to write off last week’s picks. A short work week and the unpredictability of Christmas Eve/Christmas Day football left my props feeling a bit rushed. I had excuses ready to roll when they inevitably tanked.
But then we landed one Jauan Jennings catch short of an 8-0 week, so … I’m not really sure what the lesson is there. Except, of course, that an unsustainable heater rolls on. These official plays are now a staggering 76-34 on the year — a 69 percent win rate that would have returned $4,109.09 in winnings if you’d slapped $100 down on each one.
This is, of course, unsustainable. Early in the season we took advantage of prop lines that were slow to adjust to the action on the field. Last week, with tighter totals and less value to be found, that 7-1 record was a little bit of skill (the Travis Kelce yardage-longest catch parlay, betting up the Ravens’ running backs with Lamar Jackson out) and a bunch of luck (Geno Smith hitting his rushing over in garbage time).
So, let’s try to be lucky AND good again in the first week of 2023 and the penultimate week of the 2022 season. Official plays are in bold.
Mike White longest completion OVER 34.5 yards. White has Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore against a fading Seattle pass defense. The only team he’s failed to complete a 30-plus yard pass against was the Bills and their smothering unit.
Justin Fields OVER 76.5 rushing yards. Chase Claypool is expected to play, but Fields’ receiving corps remains grim. Fortunately, he’s got a showdown against the defense that gives up more rushing yards to quarterbacks than anyone else in the NFL — a number padded by the 136 yards Fields rolled up the last time these teams played.
Trevor Lawrence OVER 13.5 rushing yards. He’s running the ball more often lately — 4.3 carries, 27.8 rushing yards per game in his last four — and gets a favorable matchup against Houston. He’s run for 20-plus yards in each of his last two matchups with the Texans.
Gus Edwards OVER 39.5 rushing yards. Edwards’ totals keep slowly creeping higher, but haven’t yet caught up to his production (10.3 carries, 73.3 yards per game over his last three matchups). The Steelers have a solid run defense, but 10 handoffs in a game that promises to be some Big Ten cosplay should be more than enough to hit this number.
Latavius Murray over 9.5 receiving yards. Murray had -1 yard through the air the last time he saw the Chiefs — but he also had five targets. Kansas City’s 723 receiving yards allowed to running backs is the fourth-worst total in the NFL.
Garrett Wilson OVER 65.5 receiving yards. 95, 162 and 78. Those are Wilson’s receiving yard totals in three games with Mike White at QB — the least of which came on a Sunday where White’s ribs were compacted into a tiny cube by Matt Milano.
Jahan Dotson OVER 40.5 receiving yards. It’s clear Washington wants its rookie to play a big role in the passing offense; Dotson has 24 targets his last three games and is averaging nearly 16 yards per catch. The question is whether Carson Wentz can make this work like Taylor Heinicke before him. Wentz and Dotson combined for two targets in two drives last week, which is fine. It’s also less than Curtis Samuel had in that confined sample size. Well hey, speaking of:
Curtis Samuel OVER 30.5 receiving yards. In two drives with Carson Wentz at quarterback last week, Dirty Curty had three targets, three catches, 35 yards and a touchdown. Granted, that was in garbage time against a disinterested 49ers team, but Wentz and Samuel had a connection early in the season that the veteran QB seems eager to rekindle.
AJ Dillon OVER 13.5 receiving yards. Dillon’s had at least 16 receiving yards in each of his last four games against the Vikings, including 46 on six targets the last time these teams played. Minnesota ranks 27th in receptions and yards allowed through the air to opposing running backs.
Aaron Jones, with an 18.5 receiving yard total, also has a modest hill to climb if you’re not sold on Quadzilla. He has at least five targets in four of his last five games against the Vikings.
Last week: 7-1 (.875)
Season to date: 76-34 (.691)
And hey, since the holiday robbed us of a formal game picks column this week, could I interest you in some Scumbag Locks ™?
my picks:
Panthers +3.5 vs. Bucs
Jets (even) vs. Seahawks
Commanders -1 vs. the cremains of the Browns 2022 season— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 30, 2022
My official leans (not plays) for Week 17
Here are the bets I liked, then talked myself out of. This section is coming off its worst week of 2022. Whether or not that actually means something remains to be seen:
- Justin Fields UNDER 177.5 passing yards. Fields has a favorable matchup against the Lions’ 28th-ranked passing defense. He’s also thrown for more than 170 yards once in his last seven games, which includes 167 the last time he saw the Lions in Week 10 (a game in which he still had Darnell Mooney, too).
- Trevor Lawrence OVER 241.5 passing yards. He’s thrown for 300-plus in three of his last five games, making this total look temptingly low for one of the game’s hottest QBs. He’s also playing the Houston Texans, which is generally when the Jaguars begin staring directly at the sun before running blindly into traffic (nine straight losses). And since this game doesn’t have any bearing on the Jags’ playoff hopes — their season comes down to Week 18’s game vs. the Titans either way — it’s tough to be ultra confident here.
- Tyler Huntley UNDER 170.5 passing yards. He hasn’t hit it in any of his starts to date. But the Steelers are tougher against the run than they are vs. the pass, which could create the opportunity for Huntley to get the volume to hit this modest total.
- Gardner Minshew OVER 11.5 rushing yards. The Saints give up 25.1 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs. Minshew has run for at least a dozen yards 16 times in 23 career starts … but never in his three starts as an Eagle, so into the leans this pick goes.
- Jamaal Williams UNDER 50.5 rushing yards. A matchup against the NFL’s 32nd-ranked defense has bumped his total up, but he hasn’t topped 40 rushing yards in any of the last four weeks. He’s averaged 2.5 yards per carry and 29 rushing yards per game in that stretch, which includes games against the not-great run defenses of Minnesota and Carolina.
Last week: 0-3 (.000)
Season to date: 38-13 (.745)
