Week 15 continued our winning ways and was a Jonathan Taylor injury away from 6-1. Our hit rate remains over a wildly unsustainable — but nicely profitable — 67 percent. It’s even better in the unofficial leans section, which haven’t been as hot lately but are still cashing at an 80 percent clip.
Week 16 provides a few more opportunities and a caveat. We’ve seen teams fall flat on their faces late this season. Now several of those same squads are working through a holiday weekend. The capacity for Christmas shenanigans is high, even after a shenanigan-filled weekend (thanks, Colts and Patriots!).
Here’s who I like to leave some presents in our betting accounts in the season’s antepenultimate week. Official plays are in bold.
Geno Smith OVER 15.5 rushing yards. Smith has hit this total in six of his last seven games and the the Chiefs rank sixth-to-last in rushing yards given up to opposing QBs. Factor in Tyler Lockett’s absence and the likelihood Seattle will be trailing early on a cold day and you’ve got a recipe for a handful of Smith scrambles.
Travis Kelce OVER 74.5 receiving yards. The Seahawks give up more receiving yards to tight ends than all but two other teams in 2022 and more than 14.5 yards per TE catch. Pair this up with Kelce’s longest reception OVER 21.5 yards.
Darius Slayton OVER 47.5 receiving yards. We’re back on Slayton after two underwhelming weeks thanks to a promising matchup against the Vikings’ 27th-ranked pass defense and the likelihood the Giants, who have a playoff spot on the line, will be playing from behind for much of the afternoon.
Gus Edwards OVER 36.5 rushing yards. He’s averaged better than six yards per carry over his last two games and now gets the league’s 26th-ranked rush defense. JK Dobbins’ number is a little higher at 56.5, but we cashed on these two before halftime last week. Might as well stack them up again: JK Dobbins OVER 56.5 rushing yards.
Jauan Jennings OVER 28.5 receiving yards. He’s hit this total in four of his last five games and now gets to operate against a top-heavy Commanders secondary. He played a season-high 54 snaps last week in Deebo Samuel’s absence and should improve on the five targets he had vs. the Seahawks.
Last week: 5-2 (.714)
Season to date: 69-33 (.676)
My official leans (not plays) for Week 16
- George Kittle UNDER 44.5 receiving yards. Kittle has gotten five targets in each of Brock Purdy’s starts. Without Deebo Samuel in the lineup last week he broke out for 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The All-Pro is mercurial, but he faces the league’s stingiest defense against tight ends in Week 16. The Commanders have only allowed 30 yards per game to opposing TEs.
- Geno Smith OVER 259.5 passing yards. The Seahawks are spiraling, which means they’re also throwing the ball more in losses. Smith has hit this total in four of his last five games — though the only miss was in last week’s defeat against the 49ers. San Francisco’s pass defense ranks fifth in DVOA. Kansas City? 25th.Buuuuut it’s also going to be a cold, windy day in Missouri and Tyler Lockett is out. So, into the leans this bet goes.
- Jamaal Williams OVER 41.5 rushing yards. It’s a modest total, but Williams hasn’t hit it in any of the last three weeks and is averaging just 2.6 yards per carry in that span. But the rushing defenses he faced ranged from average (the Vikings) to good (Jets) and now he gets the Panthers’ 22nd-ranked unit. He’s ripe for something like 15 carries and 52 yards.
Last week: 2-1 (.667)
Season to date: 38-10 (.792)
