Welp, we’re back on track.
After a losing Week 11, I took Thanksgiving as a chance to step back and use the excuse of the holiday to break up any chance of a cold streak. And, despite there being no logic behind it, this worked out.
Last week’s iffy strategy of backing the New York Giants paid off, even if they didn’t win. Overtime helped Daniel Jones hit his overs and, somehow, kept Saquon Barkley at his rushing yard under. That capped an 11-1 day only upended by a fourth quarter Diontae Johnson reception (and boosted, unfortunately, by Jimmy Garoppolo’s broken foot).
I’m back to hitting more that two-thirds of my official recommendations and a still-ludicrous 80-plus percent of the bets I like but ultimately talk myself out of. This is, again, where I warn you none of this is sustainable. Lines have tightened up across the league thanks to the proliferation of data accrued over the season. Bad weeks are coming.
But we’ll go digging for truffles anyway, because we’ve only got nine more weeks of prop bets before the season’s over. 10 if you’re betting the Pro Bowl skills events which, hey, no judgment here (OK, some judgment). Here are this week’s official plays in bold.
Dalvin Cook OVER 74.5 rushing yards. The Lions have the league’s 25th-ranked run defense. Cook knows and loves this fact, because he’s averaged a hair under 105 rushing yards per game against Detroit in his career on better than six yards per carry.
Saquon Barkley UNDER 71.5 rushing yards. We hit this by the skin of our teeth last Sunday and, since I’ve learned nothing, return to it in Week 14. The Eagles don’t have a great run defense, but it’s much improved in recent weeks. The two teams behind that unit in the DVOA rankings, Seattle and Detroit, allowed Barkley to rush for 75 total yards in two games this fall.
Joe Burrow UNDER 16.5 rushing yards. No team in the NFL gives up fewer rushing yards to quarterbacks than the Browns. Lamar Jackson put up 59 against them in Week 7. The other 11 passers they’ve faced have combined for 43 — and that includes guys like Marcus Mariota (three yards) and Josh Allen (seven).
Darius Slayton OVER 48.5 receiving yards. Slayton’s betting totals remain low despite his status as Daniel Jones’ huckleberry. He’s had at least six targets in five of his last six games and has averaged 76.3 receiving yards per contest over that stretch.
Garrett Wilson OVER 61.5 receiving yards. Wilson has 23 targets in two games since Mike White took over at quarterback. He had 15 last week as the Jets attempted to come back from an early deficit against the Vikings. Sunday’s game in Buffalo could follow the same script.
Last week: 7-1 (.875)
Season to date: 59-29 (.670)
My official leans (not plays) for Week 14
- Jared Goff UNDER 265.5 passing yards. The Vikings don’t have many horses in the secondary, but this is a big number for a quarterback who has only gone over 240 yards once in his last five games.
- Russell Wilson OVER 209.5 passing yards. I don’t like betting on Russ either, but the Chiefs are an opportunity. He’s going to likely be playing from behind and throwing often against the league’s 26th-ranked passing defense. He also stinks at throwing on the run and now faces a unit that ranks seventh in pressure rate (24.4 percent), so into the “leans” pile this goes.
- Mike White longest completion UNDER 34.5 yards. White’s offense is loaded with playmakers, but the Bills don’t give up many big plays. In their last five games they’ve only given up two receptions for more than 30 yards — one to Justin Jefferson (understandable) and one to Patriots’ cornerback Marcus Jones (weird, but cool). I want to believe in Mike White and Garrett Wilson, but this time I think they fall short.
- TJ Hockenson UNDER 48.5 receiving yards. It’s a high total for a player who has averaged fewer than 37 yards per game in his last three outings. Hockenson hasn’t hit this total since his Vikings debut. But he also gets to face his old team and, coincidentally, the Lions rank 22nd when it comes to yards given up to tight ends this fall (54 per game), which creates room for a breakthrough.
Last week: 4-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 34-7 (.829)
