Full disclosure: I doubted Joe Mixon last week. If you want to close this tab here and dismiss me as an idiot, I understand.
Mixon hit his rushing yards over in roughly 20 minutes of game time en route to five touchdowns and the honor of single-handedly outscoring the Carolina Panthers in Week 9. I’m still not exactly sold on the idea he’s back to prime form — his 1.4 yards after contact still ranks 40th among 46 qualified tailbacks in 2022 — but he’s done enough to teach me a lesson about fading him.
Instead, we’ll look for value elsewhere and try to keep our recent winning streak alive. This year’s props are hitting at a 65 percent success rate, which is great but almost certainly unsustainable. Finding bad lines gets tougher and tougher as the season wears on and we get more and more data from which to work.
That left me with slim pickings for Week 10. Here are the Sunday bets I like the most.
Kenny Pickett UNDER 222.5 passing yards. The Saints haven’t given up more than 200 yards through the air in any of their last three games and rank 12th in passing defense DVOA. Pickett dropped back 44 times in his last game (vs. the Eagles and their admittedly much better passing D) and threw for only 191 yards.
Justin Fields OVER 56.5 rushing yards. Fields has sprung for 60-plus in each of his last four games. Now he gets a Lions defense that ranks 26th in rushing defense and has given up more rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (28.2) than any other team in the NFL but the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots — two teams the second-year QB already roasted.
Sam Ehlinger UNDER 33.5 rushing yards. This is a big number for a quarterback who just hit 39 rushing yards in Week 9, but against the aforementioned, eminently gashable (by quarterbacks) Patriots defense. Washington has only given up 13.8 rushing yards to opposing QBs per game in 2022.
Darnell Mooney OVER 42.5 receiving yards. Mooney topped this number by the skin of his teeth last week. Rather than learn from that, we’re jumping on another low yardage total against a deficient passing defense. Is this merely my man-crush on the former Tulane workhorse shining through? MAYBE.
Donovan Peoples-Jones OVER 41.5 receiving yards. He’s easily eclipsed this total in each of his last five games and now gets the league’s 31st-ranked passing defense, per DVOA.
Last week: 4-3 (.571)
Season to date: 44-24 (.647)
My official leans (not plays) for Week 10
This section continued to outpace my official bets last week, though Tee Higgins’ light second half workload dinged my overall average a bit (thanks again, Joe Mixon!). Without too many interesting lines in Week 10, there’s not much I like. And in that case, the best play is not to play.
- Mike Gesicki OVER 24.5 receiving yards. Gesicki’s always tough to gamble on, but until last week he’d hit this total four straight games.
- Cole Kmet OVER 25.5 receiving yards. The Lions give up 62.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends. Betting on Kmet is always dicey, but he’ll have an opportunity to shine in Week 10.
Last week: 2-1 (.667)
Season to date: 27-4 (.871)
