We were so close last week. We were one Nico Collins groin injury — and eight receiving yards — away from a 7-0 record. Instead, we settled for 6-1 thanks to big rushing performances from Brian Robinson, Dameon Pierce and a pre-injury Breece Hall (aw…).
That leaves us with an undeniably unsustainable .660 batting average on this year’s prop bets, considerably better than last year’s 57 percent mark and a massive candidate for regression. We’re due to fall back to earth soon, but we’re also on a heater thanks to a 12-3 record the last two weeks.
So which is gonna win out? The law of averages or the gambler’s law of thermodynamics? Let’s put that to the test with Week 8’s prop bets. Here’s what I’ve got for Sunday’s games.
Trevor Lawrence UNDER 214.5 passing yards. The Broncos have a top three defense that’s especially dominant against the pass thanks in large part to Patrick Surtain’s emergence as a true lockdown cornerback. Denver has only allowed more than 200 passing yards once this season — against Justin Herbert in Week 6.
Kenny Pickett OVER 218.5 passing yards. The Eagles’ passing defense is even better than the Broncos’, but Pickett is likely to be playing from behind throughout this game — a scenario that led to 327 yards against the Bills and their top-ranked defense in Week 5.
Melvin Gordon UNDER 39.5 rushing yards. The Jets’ 14th-ranked rushing defense held him to 11 carries and 33 yards last week. Now he gets the Jaguars’ 15th-ranked unit.
Chase Claypool OVER 39.5 receiving yards.
George Pickens OVER 37.5 receiving yards. It really feels like the Steelers are going to be throwing the ball a lot for a game in which they’ll likely be trailing for three quarters. Claypool has 24 targets in his last three games. Pickens has 28 in his last four. These two young wideouts could brute force their way over their Week 8 totals. The Eagles have a great secondary, but it’s hard accounting for all the viable playmakers in the Pittsburgh receiving game.
DeVonta Smith OVER 54.5 receiving yards. The Steelers have given up just under 210 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts. Non-WR1s like Nelson Agholor, Corey Davis, Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir and Jaylen Waddle have all gone for 70-plus yards against them this fall.
DJ Moore OVER 58.5 receiving yards. Moore had 10 targets last week against the Buccaneers with PJ Walker at quarterback. Now he draws the league’s worst passing defense on a week where star cornerback AJ Terrell is nursing an injury.
Last week: 6-1 (.857)
Season to date: 35-18 (.660)
My official leans (not plays) for Week 8
We nearly had a perfect game in this section as well, until my Cade Otton doubt proved to be the bloop single into left field that ruined everything. Still, my unofficial plays have proven more unsustainably hot than the real thing. Here’s what’s coming for Week 8.
- Najee Harris UNDER 47.5 rushing yards. The Eagles’ rush defense ranks 22nd in rushing DVOA compared to second against the pass. I want a reason to believe in Harris while also acknowledging he’s been mostly untrustable this year. His yards after contact have fallen from 2.2 to 1.3 in 2022 and the Eagles have the beef to clog up his running lanes up front. I’ve waffled back and forth on this one, so into the unofficial pile it goes.
- Raheem Mostert UNDER 66.5 rushing yards. I love Mostert, from the way he runs to the fact he toiled on several different practice squads for YEARS before finally breaking through. Unfortunately, we’ve reached the stage of the season where he typically suffers some kind of injury. That risk — and Mike McDaniel’s potential usage of his veteran back — puts his unders into play for the rest of the season.
- Dameon Pierce UNDER 70.5 rushing yards. Pierce has been racking up carries, but only (understandably) while games are close. He had only three handoffs in the fourth quarter of last week’s showdown with the Raiders when Vegas turned a 20-17 deficit into a 38-20 win. The Titans have been stingy against opposing runners — 148 total rushing yards allowed their last three games, including two against the rush-heavy Colts — and have the chops to cool off the rookie’s hot streak.
- Jakobi Meyers OVER 48.5 receiving yards. Meyers gets a tough assignment in Sauce Gardner, but he’s traditionally shown up in a big way vs. the Jets (67 receiving yards per game, though that’s heavily skewed by one big 169-yard performance in 2020) and has gone for 50-plus yards in four of five games this season.
Last week: 5-1 (.833)
Season to date: 21-3 (.875)
