And so, the playoffs begin.
This weekend, roughly 40 percent of the NFL will begin a hopefully extended postseason journey during Wild Card Weekend. At the same time, the other approximately 60 percent of the league is already well into the 2023 offseason, hoping to lay the bricks of a foundation to play well into mid-January and soon.
In five weeks’ time, we’ll have a new Super Bowl champion crowned in Arizona. And when everyone’s done celebrating — the precise moment they’re done celebrating, and we are not exaggerating this — we’ll already have our eyes on what’s next or who’s next in this oh so silly league. That’s just the way this dramatic cookie crumbles.
As the playoffs start for one side of the NFL and a vital offseason kicks off for the other, here are For The Win’s Power Rankings for 2023 Wild Card Weekend.
32
Indianapolis Colts
Last week’s rank: 31
The Colts fired Frank Reich to hire Jeff Saturday to lose games. That’s … more or less exactly what he did. Between blowing a historic lead to the Vikings or letting the rival Texans win a barnstorming matchup of pride at the last second, it’s evident Saturday — and all his high-school coaching experience — was never cut out for the job. Knowing Jim Irsay’s propensity for recklessness, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Saturday and his half-baked motivational speeches return to coach in 2023. If he does, Indianapolis can at least take solace in what will likely be a clear front-office mission to tank. That’d be more clear direction than the Colts have shown in a long time.
31
Houston Texans
Last week’s rank: 32
This is an unserious team that cycles through single-use head coaches in an effort to maximize losses and sink to the top of the NFL Draft order. That strategy has failed each of the past two seasons when both David Culley and Lovie Smith won slightly too many games. The next man up will take over a team with a few nice young pieces — Jalen Pitre, Derek Stingley, Dameon Pierce — and little else.
30
Chicago Bears
Last week’s rank: 30
No one took more lumps under the guise of looking ahead into the crystal ball than the Bears in 2022. Chicago lost 10 consecutive games to close the year and let Justin Fields take brutal punishment in expense. Fortunately, he still showed flashes of considerable promise in an impossible situation. But the Bears’ unofficial/absolutely official tanking might be worth it for the 2023 NFL offseason’s kingmaker that now owns the No. 1 overall pick and the most salary cap space of any team by far. That the Bears already have a field-tilting quarterback to build around could make them a legitimate contender overnight if they play their cards right in the coming months.
29
Denver Broncos
Last week’s rank: 29
Russell Wilson played slightly better at the end of the season than he did at the start. He also threw at least one interception in each of his last four games, and the Broncos went 1-3 during that stretch. Denver now enters a coaching search where the first question each candidate has to answer will be, “how are you gonna fix the quarterback we just gave a $245 million contract extension?”
28
Arizona Cardinals
Last week’s rank: 28
Kliff Kingsbury is out of a job. So is Steve Keim. Meanwhile, after Kyler Murray tore his ACL very late in the regular season, we probably won’t hear from him in live game action until sometime well into 2023. Only two years ago, it seemed like the Cardinals had one of the NFL’s brighter futures with a genuinely gifted signal-caller pushing full steam ahead. Now it’s hard to imagine Arizona resembles anything more than an actual desert for a little while.
27
Los Angeles Rams
Last week’s rank: 27
Matthew Stafford played through an injury for a stretch, didn’t look great, shut it down, and will be 35 years old in 2023. Sean McVay may not return. The offensive line is still a bit of a mess, and the Rams only have two picks in the first five rounds of this spring’s draft to pair with an estimated -$5.9 million in effective salary cap space. But hey, they won a Super Bowl last year, so no complaints here.
26
Cleveland Browns
Last week’s rank: 25
The Browns should’ve regretted selling their soul to trade for Deshaun Watson — after more than 20 credible accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL would later describe as “predatory behavior” — the moment they even thought of the idea. They probably regret it more (if only for the entirely wrong reasons) after he finished 2022 as one of the league’s worst, least-efficient starting quarterbacks. Next year, Watson may improve. But, for now, the Browns should consider whether they acquired the supposed franchise player they wanted in return for a sham appearance of morals.
25
Atlanta Falcons
Last week’s rank: 26
Tyler Allgeier had 55 rushing yards through Week 3. He finished with 1,035. He, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts make for an intriguing trio of skill players for whichever quarterback arrives in Georgia via draft or free agency. The Falcons probably won’t be very good in 2023, but with the right man behind center, they could be a lot of fun.
24
New Orleans Saints
Last week’s rank: 23
New Orleans enters the 2023 offseason with no franchise quarterback, no first-round pick (one that otherwise would’ve been in the top 10), and minimal cap space. But other than that, Mr. (Dennis) Allen, how do you feel about the future?
23
Carolina Panthers
Last week’s rank: 24
The wheels finally came off for Sam Darnold. However, the Panthers were still able to win their season finale on a day where their starting quarterback threw two interceptions, led his offense to zero points, had 31 net passing yards, and recorded a passer rating of 2.8. The NFC South is a strange and desolate space. And, somehow, Carolina may be the best equipped to handle it in 2023.
22
Las Vegas Raiders
Last week’s rank: 21
Despite a campaign where the Raiders pushed in all their chips for Super Bowl contention and subsequently took a parachute-less nosedive off a cliff, Josh McDaniels will likely continue to roam the Las Vegas sideline next fall. Why? Well, when you take a big-picture look at the Raiders, it’s probably really easy to convince Mark Davis a quick turnaround is just around the corner. If Davis is gullible enough to keep McDaniels after what should be an unforgivable glut of mistakes for over four months, the man’s incredible naivety cannot be questioned.
21
New York Jets
Last week’s rank: 20
The Jets closed out 2022 with six straight losses, but Robert Saleh’s job is safe because the world understands the impossible situation his quarterbacks left him to deal with. New York’s 2023 priority will be finding someone capable of harnessing an explosive young offense and giving a high-potential defense enough time to breathe. This team is just an average — not good, merely average — starting QB away from breaking a 12-year playoff drought.
20
Tennessee Titans
Last week’s rank: 19
When Tennessee fired former GM Jon Robinson, speculation ran wild. Why would Tennessee make a significant front-office change in the middle of a playoff push after all the recent success it’s enjoyed? As it turns out, with the Titans bottoming out on a season-ending seven-game losing streak, it’s pretty clear that Robinson’s operation was quite hollow. Mike Vrabel is already in the process of cleaning the house with assistant coaches. But all this turmoil will leave him as the last domino standing. If the Titans don’t rebound next year, he’s the next piece to fall over.
19
Washington Commanders
Last week’s rank: 18
Washington traded multiple Day 2 draft picks for Carson Wentz, who proved to be its third-best quarterback in 2022. Fortunately for the Commanders, there should be a healthy marketplace for veteran quarterback help this offseason. Unfortunately for them, the franchise is still run by a ghoul who can’t get anything right. Dan Snyder may sell at least part of the team this offseason. Or he could simply be messing with the fanbase he’s spent two decades antagonizing. Tough to tell, really.
18
Tampa Bay Buccaneeers
Last week’s rank: 22
Tampa Bay might be a sub-.500 division champion that’s shown no signs of actually being a sleeping giant. But, in Year 23, we would still be foolish to count out Touchdown Tom — especially with the Cowboys’ trademark playoff gag reflex on deck.
17
Green Bay Packers
Last week’s rank: 14
The Lions’ win at Lambeau prevented the world from watching San Francisco run for 400 yards in a 31-9 Wild Card win this weekend. Instead, we get an extra week of deliberating over whether Aaron Rodgers will retire, return to Green Bay or create another rift with the only franchise for which he’s ever played. Well, whatever he decides, we’re sure it will be done quietly and without lingering drama.
16
New England Patriots
Last week’s rank: 16
There’s no need to beat around the bush: 2022 was a massive disappointment for Bill Belichick. In most facets, especially with an offense coordinated by Matt Patricia for some reason, the Patriots regressed. Hard. The most concerning aspect of their continued descent into NFL No Man’s Land is the decline of Mac Jones. Not only did Jones’ play fall off considerably after a promising rookie season, he acted like a petulant child rather than a leader of grown men. It’s fair to wonder whether the coming offseason and 2023 might be the last real moments we see of Jones as the Patriots’ future behind center.
15
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week’s rank: 17
Mike Tomlin took a 2-6 team, starting a quarterback from the worst class of rookie passers in the past two decades, and got it to 9-8, falling just shy of a playoff spot. That’s remarkable, even if that late-season schedule wasn’t exactly imposing. The Steelers’ coach hasn’t suffered a losing season in 16 years at the helm and remains the league’s most underrated play caller.
14
Baltimore Ravens
Last week’s rank: 11
After missing out on last year’s playoff festivities, John Harbaugh has brought his team back to meaningful January football. The rub, and it’s a pretty important one, is whether Lamar Jackson will play. Jackson hasn’t practiced in roughly five weeks, and the Ravens have been increasingly mum on his status as their road playoff game against the Bengals looms. If Jackson plays, Baltimore has a legitimate shot of an upset. If he doesn’t, the Ravens likely fall, and a potentially tense offseason — ironically centered around Jackson’s pending UFA status — looms.
13
Detroit Lions
Last week’s rank: 12
Detroit couldn’t make the playoffs heading into Sunday night, but it could ruin the Packers’ season in front of a raucous crowd at Lambeau Field. So that’s what the Lions did, bracketing the Green Bay offense and exploiting its biggest weakness by bludgeoning the Pack with power runs up the middle. This sets up high expectations for 2023 and the belief that Jared Goff, despite his flaws, may once again be a franchise quarterback.
12
Seattle Seahawks
Last week’s rank: 15
With the dust settled and the Broncos starting the process of trying to convince some poor dreamer they have to “fix” Russell Wilson because he got a quarter-billion dollars, Geno Smith went out and broke Seattle’s single-season passing yards record on Sunday. In the process, Smith helped the Seahawks overcome a feisty Rams team pulling out all the stops to keep a rival from the playoffs. A year ahead of schedule in a retool, Seattle probably doesn’t stand much of a chance against the juggernaut 49ers. But regardless of what happens in the postseason, 2022 was an unmitigated successful first step in a new Seattle era for Pete Carroll.
11
Miami Dolphins
Last week’s rank: 13
Tua Tagovailoa remains in the league’s concussion protocol. If he’s not cleared — and please, after the season he’s had, do not rush him — the Dolphins don’t stand a chance in their Wild Card matchup in Buffalo. If Tagovailoa can play, Dolphins-Bills may be the most intriguing matchup of Wild Card weekend. These two teams split their series in a pair of games decided by four points or fewer. While Miami’s been trending downward, a third showdown with their division rival may be just the kickstart it needs.
10
New York Giants
Last week’s rank: 8
Brian Daboll, take a bow. Not only did he lead the limited Giants stitched together with glue and rubber bands to the NFC’s sixth seed, the luck of New York’s draw means they’ll play the somewhat similarly “fraudulent” Vikings in the first round of the playoffs. Whether the NFL’s worst big-play passing offense can take advantage of a vulnerable Minnesota on the road is a different story. But the Giants might not need much more than a steady dose of Saquon Barkley to advance.
9
Minnesota Vikings
Last week’s rank: 9
13-4 with a -3 point differential. It’s fair to think this Minnesota team is flawed. Whether or not it’s fraudulent will be unveiled this postseason. Kirk Cousins is going to have to level up his game to help paper over a defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed this season.
8
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week’s rank: 10
Trevor Lawrence’s Jaguars haven’t lost a game since early December on the road in Detroit. They stormed a path all the way to the AFC South title, culminating with what should be an electric atmosphere in Duval County in Saturday’s AFC Wild Card Game. Jacksonville is not a perfect team and probably won’t make a Super Bowl 57 run. But with Lawrence blossoming and an athletic promising defense starting to close games, this is a squad assuredly no one in the AFC playoff field wants to see this month.
7
Dallas Cowboys
Last week’s rank: 6
What are the Cowboys capable of? Are they the team that put the Vikings in a coffin on the road in Week 11? Or are they the team that disappeared in Week 1 and again in Week 18 in a game they kinda/sorta cared about vs. the Commanders? Dak Prescott’s play is the defining line between the two. Dallas can survive even if he struggles this postseason thanks to an opportunistic defense; the Cowboys haven’t lost a game in regulation when they force at least two turnovers (7-2, but the two losses came in overtime).
6
Los Angeles Chargers
Last week’s rank: 7
Are the Chargers ready for the big time in Justin Herbert’s playoff debut? Let’s ask Brandon Staley, who inexplicably left some of his critical cogs in a meaningless Week 18 game with L.A.’s postseason seeding all but locked up. Herbert might be one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. But it’s hard not to see how Staley isn’t a rusty anchor that drags down his young talisman’s prospects and, by extension, the Chargers with him. This postseason could be a slog, albeit a quick one, in Charger-dom.
5
San Francisco 49ers
Last week’s rank: 5
Brock Purdy keeps churning along. While beating a checked-out Cardinals team isn’t exactly resume stuff, his 178-yard, three-touchdown performance on just 20 pass attempts was wonderfully efficient and endemic of what the 49ers offense can bring to a young quarterback. Purdy has to prove he can keep his stunning start rolling now that the playoffs are upon him.
4
Cincinnati Bengals
Last week’s rank: 2
Cincinnati felt jilted by drawing the short straw in the NFL’s playoff proposal and went out and smacked around the Ravens — the team that would’ve benefitted from said short straw. The Bengals might be the AFC’s most complete team on paper. Unfortunately, if they advance past the Wild Card Round, the defending AFC Champs will likely have to beat both the Bills and Chiefs on the road in succession to have a chance at finishing the job this time. Not ideal.
3
Philadelphia Eagles
Last week’s rank: 4
Jalen Hurts returned to the lineup, and all was right with the world. Or, at least, it was enough to beat the Davis Webb-led Giants without much drama. That locked down the NFC’s top seed and gave Hurts another week to recuperate his sprained throwing shoulder. Philadelphia needs him at 100 percent to keep the city’s Super Bowl hopes alive.
2
Kansas City Chiefs
Last week’s rank: 3
After the NFL’s AFC playoff contingency plan locked itself in, the Chiefs ended up with the AFC’s top seed anyway. They may not have a guaranteed home-field AFC title game in the event they play the rival Bills, but don’t discount the importance of a bye week for a team that has already played on four straight Championship Sundays. Patrick Mahomes and Friends with some rest before the real show? Talk about a nightmare for the rest of the conference.
1
Buffalo Bills
Last week’s rank: 1
Questions swirled over how Buffalo would react to Damar Hamlin’s terrifying on-field collapse and the subsequent cancellation of its Week 17 game. Then Nyheim Hines took two kickoffs to the house, and a flawed offense eventually found its rhythm behind kindly mutant Josh Allen and his ability to flick a football 65 yards into a bucket without setting his feet. The Bills don’t have home-field advantage, but it’s not hard to see them as the favorite in the AFC.
