The Baltimore Ravens have separated themselves from the pack heading into the final week of the 2023 NFL regular season. Behind them is a flawed peloton of erstwhile contenders and legitimate threats.
Parity remains alive in well in a league that’s been the backdrop to a handful of stunning upsets in the midst of a playoff race. The Philadelphia Eagles relinquished their hold on the NFC East in Week 17 by losing to the Arizona Cardinals. The Pittsburgh Steelers have ridden Mason Rudolph to two straight wins, another non-losing season for head coach Mike Tomlin and devastating blows to the postseason hopes of the Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks. The AFC and NFC Souths have emerged as the divisions no one quite wants to win thanks to frustrating losses and waves of mediocrity.
That makes this week’s power rankings a tricky enterprise. The AFC and NFC have each crowned their regular season winners. The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have each locked up home field advantage through the playoffs. After that? Well, it’s tough to have confidence in teams like the Eagles (spiraling to their doom), Kansas City Chiefs (host to a suddenly pedestrian offense), Dallas Cowboys (can’t win big games on the road) or Miami Dolphins (can’t win big games unless they’re against the Cowboys).
That leaves a ranking system with a lush second tier of untrustable teams. Here’s how they shook out after 2023’s penultimate week.
32
Carolina Panthers
Last week’s rank: 32
A bit different of a mood from him after the game https://t.co/DP68vKx1U5 pic.twitter.com/llOqHXS4yI
— Med (@Kahuna_Med) December 31, 2023
31
Washington Commanders
Last week’s rank: 30
The conspiracy theorist in me wants to think Washington’s higher-ups took a look at the Commanders’ draft position and told Jacoby Brissett he’s too injured to play in Week 17. It worked, as Sam Howell’s rapid disassembling continued and the franchise pushed into what’s currently a top two draft slot.
30
New England Patriots
Last week’s rank: 28
Bailey Zappe vacated whatever modest momentum he’d gained just in time to ensure a loss to the Buffalo Bills and a top three draft pick. With a loss to the New York Jets in Week 18, a top two selection — and a shot at either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye — comes into play.
29
Tennessee Titans
Last week’s rank: 27
Whether it’s Will Levis or Ryan Tannehill behind center, the Tennessee offense is a mess. Derrick Henry’s rushing yards over expected (RYOE) have fallen from 87 in 2022 to just three this fall, showcasing how he’s gone from game-changer to merely average in his eighth year as a pro. The Titans need to change up their approach, and that may mean swapping out Mike Vrabel at head coach.
28
Arizona Cardinals
Last week’s rank: 31
After a slow start in his comeback from an ACL tear, Kyler Murray is beginning to look like a franchise quarterback again. In his last two games he’s thrown five touchdowns against a single interception (albeit while averaging a meager 6.7 yards per attempt) and averaged 5.4 yards per carry. Just think how good he’ll look next year with Marvin Harrison Jr. in the lineup.
27
Los Angeles Chargers
Last week’s rank: 29
The Chargers have nothing to play for and it shows. Quentin Johnston was elevated to WR1 status amidst a depleted offense and had just three catches for 29 yards against the Denver Broncos, taking a backseat to Alex Erickson in the process. Los Angeles plays football like someone wrote a bunch of players on notecards, dropped them, then picked them up in random order before deciding “sure, that’ll work.”
26
New York Giants
Last week’s rank: 26
New York went from being one of the least competitive teams, in terms of point differential, in NFL history to merely “not good” over its last six games. Brian Daboll has done another solid job course correcting over the course of an injury-riddled season, and while it’s not as impressive as last year’s playoff run it’s still evidence he can turn things around long term for the Giants.
25
New York Jets
Last week’s rank: 24
A once proud defense just got lit up by Joe Flacco on a night where he didn’t have his top wide receiver. That’s troubling for 2024, even with a healthy Aaron Rodgers (who, let’s remember, will be 40 years old and one year removed from his last season, which was also his worst as a full time starter). Well, at least Breece Hall looks like the truth.
24
Las Vegas Raiders
Last week’s rank: 20
Antonio Pierce kept the Raiders’ playoff hopes alive into Week 17 with Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. Las Vegas still has a lot of problems to fix, but head coach may not be one of them.
23
Minnesota Vikings
Last week’s rank: 19
The Jaren Hall experiment didn’t pan out, but it was worth a shot after diminishing returns from Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens. Brian Flores’ defense, held together with duct tape and naked aggression, finally fell apart as well. Still, the Vikings overachieved for a team that lost its starting quarterback midway through the season — especially after underachieving to start the year 1-4.
22
Atlanta Falcons
Last week’s rank: 23
Arthur Smith was supposed to create the kind of offense capable of covering up the deficiencies in Atlanta’s defense. Instead, the only reason he’s gotten to seven wins this season is thanks to that over-performing defense. The Falcons have three former top 10 picks languishing in a scheme whose true crime is making this spilled jar of superballs of a team boring.
21
Chicago Bears
Last week’s rank: 25
Since Week 10, the Bears have the league’s top-ranked defense. Their offense over that stretch only ranks 18th, but that’s a drastic improvement fro the start of the season. Now Chicago has decisions to make about the dueling futures of head coach Matt Eberflus and quarterback Justin Fields.
20
Cincinnati Bengals
Last week’s rank: 15
Jake Browning did a passable impression for a while, but his biggest service to the Bengals is bringing appreciation to Joe Burrow’s smooth scrambling capabilities. In Week 17, Browning’s SUV-style handling left him vulnerable to the Kansas City Chiefs’ pass rush — and ultimately knocked Cincinnati out of playoff consideration.
19
Denver Broncos
Last week’s rank: 16
Jarrett Stidham’s emergence as a viable backup and spot starter is a nice story. The Broncos’ willingness to absorb more than $80 million in dead salary cap space just to be rid of Russell Wilson is not. It’s gonna take a while for Sean Payton to dig his way out of this mess.
18
Seattle Seahawks
Last week’s rank: 12
Seattle may have flushed its playoff hopes away by losing to, sigh, Mason Rudolph. The defense that was supposed to emulate the Legion of Boom instead got carved up by George Pickens and Najee Harris. Since Week 10, no team in the league has been worse at stopping opponents.
17
Green Bay Packers
Last week’s rank: 21
Jordan Love remains impossible to pin down on a weekly basis, but it’s clear that he’s got the potential to be a consistent force for good in Green Bay. After -9.6 expected points added (EPA) in his first start against the Vikings (at home, too) he showed out with a 15.5 EPA in Week 17’s de facto playoff game in the Twin Cities.
16
New Orleans Saints
Last week’s rank: 22
The Saints are 8-8 and haven’t beaten anyone better than … the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? The Indianapolis Colts? Either way, this team is difficult to take seriously, even with the prospect of a home playoff game still in the realm of possibility.
15
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week’s rank: 18
Here’s the full list of losing seasons Mike Tomlin has had in 17 years as head coach:
…
Now here’s the list of quarterbacks he’s started the last five years: late-stage Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph, Duck Hodges, Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett. That’s remarkable.
14
Indianapolis Colts
Last week’s rank: 17
The Colts are 5-3 on the road this season, which would be enough to concern potential Wild Card opponents if not for the fact the only quality win in that bunch is a Week 3 overtime victory in Baltimore. Still, Indianapolis looks like a playoff team despite a below average defense thanks in large part to Gardner Minshew’s steady play behind center. They’ve got the juice to ruin someone else’s plans this postseason.
13
Houston Texans
Last week’s rank: 14
CJ Stroud came back and righted the ship, but let’s be honest, he didn’t have to do much to beat the rudderless Titans. He’s an immensely valuable piece of the Texans’ puzzle and the reason they’re in playoff contention to begin with, but he’s taken a backseat recently to Houston’s *other* top three draft pick. Will Anderson has come alive with four sacks and nine quarterback hits his last three games.
12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week’s rank: 11
The Buccaneers have punched above their weight class all season, creating the space for Week 17’s letdown loss to the Saints. Baker Mayfield’s 309-yard performance featured some empty calories after falling behind 20-0, and it’s fair to be concerned after a rib injury knocked him out of the game late. But if he can reclaim his early December form, Tampa should have no problem claiming the NFC South crown.
11
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week’s rank: 13
Jacksonville is completely untrustable, but at least they’re good enough to make Panthers owner David Tepper lose his mind. It’s difficult to glean much useful information when you’re playing Carolina and CJ Beathard is your starting quarterback, but hey, Travis Etienne looked good!
10
Los Angeles Rams
Last week’s rank: 10
Los Angeles only brought back two players who’d started at least 10 games on defense in 2022, but that unit’s been good enough (though still below average) to hold things together just long enough for Matthew Stafford to take over. Since returning from injury in Week 11, Stafford is 6-1 with 16 touchdown passes and four interceptions. His 0.213 expected points added (EPA) per dropback makes him a top five quarterback — and a real problem for the rest of the NFC in the playoffs.
9
Miami Dolphins
Last week’s rank: 4
Miami has one win over a team with a winning record this season. It was at home against the Dallas Cowboys, a team that can’t beat anyone good outside the state of Texas. Trust the Dolphins in the playoffs at your own peril.
8
Cleveland Browns
Last week’s rank: 9
The Browns’ 2023 can be summed up thusly. They traded three first round picks and devoted a boatload of salary cap space — $235 million fully guaranteed! — to a quarterback who’d been accused of more than 20 counts of sexual misconduct and what the league itself described as “predatory behavior.” And he was significantly worse than a 38-year-old Joe Flacco, who Cleveland signed off the street in October. Now they’re a playoff team again because Flacco is willing to launch bombs downfield and the defense behind him is great-slash-incredible.
7
Philadelphia Eagles
Last week’s rank: 6
Philly is 1-4 in its last five games and the lone victory nearly saw the team give up a fourth quarter comeback to Tyrod Taylor and the New York Giants. This is not the behavior of a top 10 team, yet here the Eagles land because everyone in the NFL is kinda/sorta bad in 2023.
6
Kansas City Chiefs
They handled a decent Cincinnati team, but the Chiefs’ offensive struggles continued to boil to the surface. Patrick Mahomes’ wideouts dropped several passes, Travis Kelce was limited to just 16 receiving yards and Kansas City didn’t score a touchdown in the final three quarters. Ah well, at least Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice have come alive at just the right time.
5
Buffalo Bills
Last week’s rank: 5
Josh Allen’s ability to create chunk plays is waning, as 2023 has been his worst year for deep balls since his pre-2020 breakthrough. That’s notably manifested in shorter targets for Stefon Diggs (average catch distance is down to 6.4 yards from 8.4 the season prior) and a less explosive offense. That wouldn’t be a problem, except an aging, injury depleted defense isn’t as good as it once was, leaving Buffalo vulnerable as the postseason looms.
4
Dallas Cowboys
Last week’s rank: 5
Credit where it’s due; Dak Prescott led his third game-winning drive and second fourth quarter comeback to handle the Detroit Lions at home. Dallas is not above reproach, but the Eagles’ Week 17 loss creates a reality where Prescott and company avoid the road woes that have plagued the team all season before a potential NFC title game showdown in San Francisco. It’s been 28 years since they’ve advanced that far in the postseason; can Mike McCarthy serve as this team’s savior?
3
Detroit Lions
Last week’s rank: 3
Detroit isn’t getting penalized in these rankings just because the refs botched a call. The Lions, in our hearts but not the scoreboard, won on Saturday night. But Jared Goff badly needed that last-ditch drive to salvage what had been a frustrating performance. He’s vacillated between big games and disappearing acts, which calls this team’s playoff seaworthiness into question.
2
San Francisco 49ers
Last week’s rank: 2
San Francisco let the Commanders linger for a bit, then turned up the heat in the second half in a comfortable win. That leaves the latitude to rest the team’s starters in Week 18 — and Christian McCaffrey’s gonna take his time and rest a calf injury until the Divisional Round of the postseason.
1
Baltimore Ravens
Last week’s rank: 1
That’s six straight wins for the Ravens, all but one of which came against teams with .500 records or better. The last two were demolition jobs against the 49ers and Dolphins that saw each opponent yank their starting quarterback out of the lineup late. No team in the league is hotter than Baltimore, which can beat opponents soundly on both sides of the ball.
