Travis Kelce would like you to believe that no one believed in his Kansas City Chiefs in 2022. This was patently false but, hey, it worked. And if it’s stupid and it works, then it’s not that stupid.
Kelce won’t find any doubt in our entirely-too-early 2023 power rankings. The Chiefs have proven they can overcome the loss of an All-Pro like Tyreek Hill and still play championship football. With Kelce, Chris Jones, head coach Andy Reid and regular season/Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes in tow, Kansas City remains a juggernaut and the safest bet to escape the AFC en route to Super Bowls 58 and beyond.
But they are tenuous rulers in a kingdom of treachery. The Eagles, one late holding call away from crowning Jalen Hurts, remain the clearer obstacle in their path. The Bills, Bengals, Chargers and, yeah sure, Jaguars continue to amass power waiting for their chance to overthrow Mahomes. In a league rife with parity, more contenders are certain to rise from the primordial ooze of 2022 disappointment to make a run at glory.
How does that pecking order shape up right now? Well, considering how each team finished their season, their upcoming draft stock and where they stand as free agency approaches, we’ve got a general idea of who’ll be dominant again in 2023. It looks something like this.
32
Indianapolis Colts
Jim Irsay is laughing about us doubting his role in the Colts’ coaching search. He’s right. How could we possibly be skeptical about an organization that hasn’t found a QB since Andrew Luck and which could be seriously considering Jeff Saturday as its future leader? The Colts might need a complete rebuild, and it’s possible they won’t even have the right person to lead them through the muck.
31
Houston Texans
Year three of the post-Bill O’Brien rebuild will get underway with an actual top prospect at head coach in former defensive rookie of the year and 49ers coordinator DeMeco Ryans. He inherits a roster devoid of talent, though a few useful young players like Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr. should have the chance to develop into All-Pros under his watch. 2023’s top priority will be finding a franchise quarterback — but even with an impact passer behind center, this team is still at least one more year away from contention.
30
Arizona Cardinals
Kliff Kingsbury is gone, but the Cardinals’ problems haven’t evaporated with him. Kyler Murray is in the midst of rehabbing a torn ACL, and it’s hard to envision him being ready for the start of the 2023 season. Meanwhile, the league’s 24th-ranked defense by DVOA is in dire need of some real franchise pieces. New GM Monti Ossenfort has his work cut out in the desert.
29
Denver Broncos
The Broncos couldn’t fire Russell Wilson — the $242 million extension he signed before the season ties him to the club through at least 2025. Instead, they jettisoned Nathaniel Hackett after less than a season as head coach. That was the right decision, even if the former Seahawk looked irreparably broken in his first season with Denver. This team still has the blueprints of a playoff franchise on the roster, but its contractor is woefully ill-equipped to see those plans through.
28
New Orleans Saints
The Saints recouped assets from Sean Payton’s return to the NFL, but New Orleans still needs to lay down a foundation. Who’s the franchise QB? Are they in the market for a veteran or a young player? Will there be any legitimate complement to Chris Olave? How does it keep a borderline top-10 defense in the upper echelon while core pieces like Cam Jordan and Tyrann Mathieu age? These are not small issues to remedy.
27
Las Vegas Raiders
Who’ll be Las Vegas’s quarterback in 2023 — and will it really matter? Derek Carr was quietly competent throughout his Raiders career, and it led to zero playoff wins in nine seasons. Whoever replaces him will have to deal with Josh McDaniels, a battleship captain of a head coach whose ability to botch even the biggest leads proves he’s unable to make in-game adjustments and turn away from his opponents’ momentum. The defense stinks too. Despite Maxx Crosby’s best efforts, Vegas ranked 31st in overall DVOA last season.
26
Atlanta Falcons
Free from the constraints of Marcus Mariota, the Falcons could have something special cooking in 2023. With weapons like Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta possesses one of the more underrated skill groups in pro football. The question is whether 2022 third-round pick Desmond Ridder can take advantage of such supporting talent or if the Falcons will even let him once the offseason settles.
25
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson, in his first action following an 11-game suspension for more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as “predatory behavior,” was not the savior Cleveland had hoped for when it traded three first-round picks for him, then handed him an unprecedented $240 million fully guaranteed contract extension. The Browns badly need him to be their on-field superhero after yet another disappointing season in northeastern Ohio.
24
Tennessee Titans
The ground fell out from underneath the Titans in 2022, as they lost their last seven games and a stranglehold of the AFC South. Prospects for the future don’t look much better as Ryan Tannehill ages and Tennessee tries to finally build an offense that isn’t “give Derrick Henry the ball and close your eyes.” Mike Vrabel might have survived the Titans’ most recent organizational purge. He wouldn’t successfully slide under the door in another one.
23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have a handful of impact starters and no quarterback — which is a rough scene when Tom Brady, while throwing more passes than ever in his career, couldn’t drag them above .500. Who’ll be throwing passes in 2023? Can a full offseason help Todd Bowles turn things around? And could the running game possibly get any worse? With a middling draft position and the league’s second-worst salary cap situation, it’s tough to find silver linings for Tampa Bay.
22
Chicago Bears
The Bears have one of the NFL’s most exciting players in Justin Fields. But, for now, they have little else around him. Given the demands of the salary cap floor, a previously thrifty Chicago is virtually guaranteed to be a big spender during next month’s free agency period. How it spends will likely determine the success it enjoys (or doesn’t?) with Fields in the coming years.
21
Carolina Panthers
Frank Reich was too competent for the Colts. The only problem is he’ll face the same problem that ultimately chained him to pretty-goodness in Indianapolis; Carolina needs a quarterback. The ninth overall pick could bring some relief but after settling for bargain veterans each of the last three years only to get burned, the Panthers may be convinced to trade up and select a more hyped prospect. Whomever it is, he’ll get to play with DJ Moore, who is quietly one of the league’s top wideouts despite the cavalcade of armless mannequins tasked with throwing him the ball the last two years.
20
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams still have a talented core at their heart. It’s tough to beat Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp, and yes, even an older (if injured) Matthew Stafford. The question is whether L.A. could use a retool before trying to contend again. Unfortunately, after going all-in for Super Bowl 56, GM Les Snead and Co. have few options to fill in the gaps. But hey, at least Sean McVay is back!
For now.
19
Pittsburgh Steelers
Everything hinges on Kenny Pickett’s development — which hinges on improvements across the offensive line. Mike Tomlin planned around an overwhelmed rookie last season and still guided this team to nine wins.
Modest improvements up front, a renewed running game, and some big plays from Pickett — the kind the Steelers have lacked ever since Ben Roethlisberger’s arm strength started to go — would make Pittsburgh a renewed threat in the AFC North. Regardless of the outcome, it’s gonna be fun watching George Pickens become the latest mid-draft selection the Steelers turn into a star.
18
Green Bay Packers
Will Aaron Rodgers stay, or will he go? If he stays with the Packers, Green Bay will expect to contend with the four-time MVP nearing 40 years old. If they trade him, a desperate (likely) AFC team should surrender a colossal haul for his services. Either way, the usually tired waiting on a Rodgers decision aside, everything seems golden for Titletown in this situation.
17
New England Patriots
Bill O’Brien has his work cut out for him as New England’s offensive coordinator. Fortunately, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge left the bar so low that competence will look like a rousing success in 2023. Mac Jones backslid mightily in his sophomore season. The Patriots have a handful of draft assets and $32 million in salary cap space with which to build him back up. If they can’t, well, at least the defense looks good.
16
Washington Commanders
Ron Rivera is, somehow, back after not realizing the Commanders could be eliminated in a late-season 2022 loss to the Browns. (Just so we’re clear: Rivera started Carson Wentz despite his Wentz-ness, and Washington would actually be eliminated in that game!) The Commanders have relative promise moving forward, but it all feels hollow without a legitimate program or leadership in place.
15
New York Jets
The Jets have one less veteran quarterback to lure after Tom Brady’s retirement, but it’s clear that’s the missing piece from their lineup. Head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas have built a playoff roster everywhere but behind center. Of course, another draft haul like 2022’s stacked class would give New York a contender, even with Zach Wilson alienating teammates and whipping passes over the heads of his wide receivers.
14
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings won 13 games last year, but you’d be hard-pressed to consider them anything but a paper tiger. Sure, there’s Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson, but one of the league’s worst defenses needs an overhaul and Kirk Cousins is only getting older. As such, Minnesota replicating its 2022 regular-season success seems quite unlikely.
13
New York Giants
Brian Daboll took the scrambled pieces of a bad team and turned them into a playoff winner. What comes next, especially with Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley facing free agency, is a bit of a mystery. Could a backslide loom for a team that won’t be able to sneak up on anyone (and who went 3-6-1 over its final 10 games)? Or can Daboll keep propping Jones up as a runner, surround him with some honest-to-goodness wide receivers, and keep the Giants rolling?
12
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith is now the reigning Comeback Player of the Year, and the Seahawks, without Russell Wilson, are also coming back. With more quality investments in both trenches in the coming months, Seattle can establish itself as a consistent playoff fixture. Again. Pete Carroll might know a thing or two about a successful rebuild, huh?
11
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore’s spot in the rankings is tenuous. If Lamar Jackson is back in the lineup, that’s wonderful. He’s got a top-five defense behind him and a decent combination of draft position/cap space with which to add the wideout talent he so badly needs. If not, well, the Ravens slide into that Patriots zone where they’re capable of winning on any given Sunday but much more likely to be borderline unwatchable while losing to actual contenders. Just pay the man, Baltimore.
10
Detroit Lions
The Lions closed last year as arguably pro football’s hottest team. Jared Goff looked like a legit franchise QB again, and ofensive coordinator Ben Johnson has returned because he thinks there’s something special in Detroit. So, yeah, Dan Campbell is no longer widely mocked for “kneecaps” quotes. If the Lions make the right moves for a relative sieve of a defense, this team is unquestionably a legit NFC power player.
9
Los Angeles Chargers
Kellen Moore is in as offensive coordinator to fix things. He won’t be able to do much if injuries rampage through the offensive line again. Justin Herbert’s ascension was stifled by blocking that failed to let his routes develop downfield and the lowest average target distance (6.4 yards downfield, third worst in the NFL) of his career. Moore planned around the Cowboys’ injury riddled line last season to mostly positive results. Now he has to prove he can shine outside Texas.
8
Dallas Cowboys
For a team that fell just short of an NFC title appearance, the Cowboys might be tweaking things a bit too much for their own good. For example, Mike McCarthy has professed to bring his Packers offense to Dallas. And uh, does anyone remember what happened with McCarthy’s offense at the end of his tenure in Green Bay? The Cowboys would be better off prioritizing getting a legit WR partner for CeeDee Lamb, but alas — Jerry Jones’ power overrides all.
7
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa made the leap Miami needed him to make, but if his long term health is in question he shouldn’t return to the field. That would be a heartbreaking worst case scenario for the Dolphins, who started the season 8-0 in games he finished last season. That puts Mike McDaniel’s team in lofty position if Tagovailoa is given the all clear — his status will dictate how Miami’s offseason unfolds.
6
Jacksonville Jaguars
With Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson paired together, the Jaguars look like they’re destined to rule the AFC South for a long time. But with a quarterback like Lawrence, Jacksonville won’t settle for division title ambitions. The first order of business should be fixing one of the sport’s worst defenses. Even an average unit might elevate Lawrence’s Jaguars — and his Waffle House love — to the glory they want.
5
San Francisco 49ers
2022 was further proof Kyle Shanahan can take a low-impact quarterback to the NFL’s final four. 2023 could be the year he finally gets something better.
Will that be Trey Lance realizing his potential in Year 3? Brock Purdy taking another step forward in his development? Lamar Jackson making a cross-country trip? Who knows — but the flaw here is clear. San Francisco needs a quarterback that can take it from good to great.
4
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo’s latest quest for a Super Bowl ended because it asked Josh Allen — who threw with an injured elbow for most of the year — to do way too much. Whatever means Brandon Beane has of finding of more tools for his superstar outside of Stefon Diggs, he should use them. Otherwise, the Bills are asking for similar trouble as they try to finally climb the NFL’s mountain.
3
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals spent the 2022 offseason upgrading Joe Burrow’s offensive line, just to have it ravaged by injury heading into the playoffs. That left Cincinnati stranded on the doorstep of greatness once again, but high hopes persist for a young team filled with playmakers.
Cincy has a solid chunk of cap space for the upcoming season but also has to make important decisions on pending free agents Jessie Bates, Vonn Bell, Eli Apple and Germaine Pratt. It’ll also have to weave a Burrow mega-extension into that framework.
2
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts is only 24 years old and was robbed of the opportunity to lead a Super Bowl-winning two-minute drill in the final game of the season. That should serve as motivation for a player who has grown significantly throughout his NFL career and has arguably made the leap to the NFL’s upper echelon of quarterbacks. Even if he sticks at this level he’s buttressed by a swarming defense, offensive line filled with maulers and a general manager capable of investing in his growth year after year. Philadelphia is set to contend for years to come.
1
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes doubled up, claiming both regular season and Super Bowl MVP honors for the first time since Kurt Warner did so after the 1999 season. Kansas City doesn’t have a ton of cap space and a handful of important free agents set to hit the open market, but as long as Mahomes, Chris Jones and Travis Kelce are on the field it feels like anything is possible. Plus this way Kelce can’t use us for motivation when he tries to tell the world no one believed in the Chiefs.
Travis Kelce: "not one of yall said the Chiefs were gonna take it home this year! not a one!" pic.twitter.com/XG1tbsRIkA
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) February 13, 2023
