There’s a lot to discuss in this week’s power rankings, so no verbose introduction from me this week outside of this little tidbit of football mindfulness: This is one of the great weekends to tinker with the various NFL playoff picture applications on your own and build your dream postseason. Even the Browns, Colts, Raiders, Packers and Falcons have a nonzero chance of making the playoffs at this very moment, which means we can still think (very) weird thoughts for another few days.
After that, it’s crushing realism and cynicism all winter as you look at your team and wonder why it can’t somehow trade for Howie Roseman. Enjoy it while it lasts.
On to the power rankings …
1. Philadelphia Eagles (12–1)
Last week: win vs. New York Giants, 48–22
Next week: at Chicago
The Eagles are not going to be put in a situation where they’ll be challenged physically and schematically until at least Christmas Eve. For now, they are leaving us no other avenue but to crown them the best team in the NFL.
Tom Horak/USA TODAY Sports
2. San Francisco 49ers (9–4)
Last week: win vs. Tampa Bay, 35–7
Next week: at Seattle
Yes, we are overrating NFC teams just slightly given the caliber of competition, but what we saw Sunday was a complete dressing down of a qualified opponent and one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. I once wrote about Kyle Shanahan’s skill set as a practice squad quarterback and now legitimately wonder how good the 49ers might be with the 42-year-old under center. That’s how complete this team is.
3. Buffalo Bills (10–3)
Last week: win vs. New York Jets, 20–12
Next week: vs. Miami
Like a cyclist or runner training at high altitude, it feels like the Bills will be better prepared (albeit a little more exhausted) for the playoffs after making each and every one of their games one of the latter rounds of Balboa-Creed.
4. Dallas Cowboys (10–3)
Last week: win vs. Houston, 27–23
Next week: at Jacksonville
We’re all getting a little too caught up in the extraneous (the Cowboys almost lost to the Texans) and are ignoring the obvious: When they needed big moments and a clinical, game-winning drive, it looked so second nature to the Cowboys. They looked entirely unfazed.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (9–4)
Last week: win vs. Cleveland, 23–10
Next week: at Tampa Bay
D.J. Reader is soaring to All-Pro heights defensively. To expose the Browns’ rushing game so viciously as he did this past weekend encapsulates how perfectly this roster was built from the ground up. It won’t be long before Cincinnati is running away with the AFC North.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (10–3)
Last week: win at Denver, 34–28
Next week: at Houston
I’m knocking the Chiefs back just a tad because of what they put on film in the second half against a very good Ejiro Evero defense. Not every coordinator is going to be able to show Patrick Mahomes these shape-shifting looks, but their lack of a run game and their O.K. defense is more noticeable when compared to the best teams in the NFL when Mahomes is forced to labor like that.
7. Baltimore Ravens (9–4)
Last week: win at Pittsburgh, 16–14
Next week: at Cleveland
The Ravens are surviving sans Lamar Jackson, and now potentially may have to without Tyler Huntley this week. They are an organization that is smart enough to fight disadvantageous battles on their own terms, making them more likely to squeeze out a win against the Steelers as they did Sunday.
8. Miami Dolphins (8–5)
Last week: loss at Los Angeles Chargers, 23–17
Next week: at Buffalo
As podcast cohost Gary Gramling nailed on The MMQB Podcast this week, what are the Dolphins offensively if they cannot get you to dramatically overreact to the backfield movements of Tyreek Hill? And what happens to the offense altogether if Hill cannot slice defenses open on a play-by-play basis?
9. Minnesota Vikings (10–3)
Last week: loss at Detroit, 34–23
Next week: vs. Indianapolis
We are now at five straight games in which the Vikings have surrendered more than 400 total yards. Hopefully, their fan base now understands why so many of us professional power rankers were so hesitant to buy Vikings stock. I get it; the entire season has been frustrating, because you win 10 games and everyone keeps talking about how hollow those victories are and ignoring the good. Every loss is apparently the indictment of how flawed the team really is. And yet, deep down, it makes some sense, especially after losing to the favored 5–8 Lions.
10. Los Angeles Chargers (7–6)
Last week: win vs. Miami, 23–17
Next week: vs. Tennessee
Now that reporters are saying the quiet out loud and fully acknowledging that Sean Payton wants the Chargers job, we can talk about what a gutsy end of season this has been for Brandon Staley. In a game against the Dolphins he absolutely needed to win (finally with both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen on the field) he was able to survive despite a seriously overmanned run defense.
11. New England Patriots (7–6)
Last week: win at Arizona, 27–13
Next week: at Las Vegas
A dominant second-half performance, especially defensively, keeps New England squarely in the playoff conversation. The question on my mind: Are we going to force Mac Jones to throw 11 screen passes in a game again, or will he eventually win the behind-the-scenes push and pull with Matt Patricia to take more ownership over this game plan?
.Patrick Breen/The Republic-USA TODAY NETWORK
12. Tennessee Titans (7–6)
Last week: loss vs. Jacksonville, 36–22
Next week: at Los Angeles Chargers
As good as the Titans are, and as spirited as they will be if they are remotely close to their opponent at the end of a game, they are going to struggle to keep up in boat races, even on afternoons where Derrick Henry is cruising to more than seven yards per carry.
13. Washington Commanders (7-5-1)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. New York Giants
The Commanders get a massive bye-week boost because their upcoming opponent, the Giants, seems to be in a bit of a deep slide. A win over New York this weekend would make them a virtual lock for the postseason and give us what we had all secretly desired: the entire NFC East in the big dance.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6–7)
Last week: loss at San Francisco, 35–7
Next week: vs. Cincinnati
The Buccaneers’ performance Sunday was eye-opening. Sure, Tom Brady gets blown out from time to time, but this was a team, a player and a coaching staff without a single answer for the class of their division. What will Tampa Bay’s lone playoff game be outside of a long farewell to their rented superstar?
15. New York Jets (7–6)
Last week: loss at Buffalo, 20–12
Next week: vs. Detroit
The Jets lost one of the most violent football games we’ve seen this year. But, they seem to have deepened their affinity for starting quarterback Mike White, who has eased some of the uncertainty that has plagued the position for the last two years.
16. Detroit Lions (6–7)
Last week: win vs. Minnesota, 34–23
Next week: at New York Jets
To beat down a tired, Detroit-themed cliché, the rubber has finally met the road for Dan Campbell. All of his coaching theatrics have taken hold, and a talented, mauling group of football players are operating at their best with a thin sliver of playoff hope ahead.
17. Seattle Seahawks (7–6)
Last week: loss vs. Carolina, 30–24
Next week: vs. San Francisco
Pete Carroll seemed to flag his offensive line for its struggles against the Panthers on Sunday. Unable to buoy the rushing attack minus Kenneth Walker III, Seattle was left to throw all its weight on Geno Smith. The Seahawks dropped a bit in our rankings this week because of their inability to slow down the run against a Panthers offense that absolutely needed to move the football on the ground to get Sam Darnold into boot-action situations. Two Panthers backs logged more than 70 yards apiece.
18. New York Giants (7-5-1)
Last week: loss vs. Philadelphia, 48–22
Next week: at Washington
Ultimately, I’m not going to throttle the Giants for being in a situation where a practice squad cornerback, matched up on Curtis Samuel, gave up some catches at the end of the game. We always knew New York was going to rub up against the reality of its roster situation, and Sunday’s game was a perfect example of that. On a positive note, Kayvon Thibodeaux looked really good.
19. Carolina Panthers (5–8)
Last week: win at Seattle, 30–24
Next week: vs. Pittsburgh
As we wrote Sunday, Steve Wilks has done a great job with the Panthers. There is an outside—but not entirely ridiculous—chance that they could reach the postseason, which alone should make him a candidate for the full-time job. I pushed them up the power rankings because Ben McAdoo has done a fine job understanding how Sam Darnold operates most comfortably, and while it’s not a sustainable solution, it’s been enough to move the football.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (5–8)
Last week: win at Tennessee, 36–22
Next week: at Jacksonville
If the Jaguars can somehow survive this weekend and beat a Cowboys team that is clearly vulnerable to inferior competition, we could be on full-out playoff watch. Jacksonville’s win over Tennessee was a very loud pronouncement of what it’s capable of offensively, even without much of a running game to speak of. There’s still one more game for the Jags, the season finale, with their division rivals.
21. Los Angeles ‘Mayfields’ (4–9)
Last week: win vs. Las Vegas, 17–16
Next week: at Green Bay
It’s time to irresponsibly overreact, if only because we need a relevant and powerful Baker Mayfield in the NFL cinematic universe. It’s the only way for us to head into next season, with Mayfield as a potential foil at full strength to down the Browns in some irresponsibly scheduled prime-time affair. In all seriousness, the Rams move up because their wide receiver play has flashed some serious depth, and Raheem Morris is still calling absolute masterpieces down the stretch.
.Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
22. Pittsburgh Steelers (5–8)
Last week: loss vs. Baltimore, 16–14
Next week: vs. Carolina
The Steelers likely fell off course to finish the season .500 or better, though they had a good chance to clip the Ravens without Lamar Jackson and, for a time, without Tyler Huntley as well. I’m keeping Pittsburgh toward the lower end of the 20s because I believe they can beat almost any team in the NFL, and with games against the playoff-aspiring Panthers and Ravens left, they can do some serious damage.
23. Green Bay Packers (5–8)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. Los Angeles Rams
Even if the Packers beat the Rams on Sunday, their playoff chances still won’t reach 10% (though I think there’s some merit in finishing strong). This division could be NFC East–level crowded a year from now, and establishing some sense that they will come back stronger, especially for a team so young at its core, is valuable. I am keeping them in the low-20 range only because they have started rushing somewhat effectively again over the last two weeks.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (5–8)
Last week: loss at Los Angeles Rams, 17–16
Next week: vs. New England
Which was more unforgivable, losing to Baker Mayfield less than 48 hours after he joined the other team, or losing to Jeff Saturday? The Raiders are so oddly inconsistent. I understand that Maxx Crosby was essentially being tackled on every play—and Sean McVay was still the opposing head coach—but if this team won a majority of the games they were supposed to win this year, we’d be talking about a playoff-bound Raiders twice in a row.
25. Atlanta Falcons (5–8)
Last week: BYE
Next week: at New Orleans
I think it’s fair to appreciate Marcus Mariota keeping the Falcons (somewhat) afloat and be excited about the debut of Desmond Ridder. If nothing else, Arthur Smith and the Falcons’ offensive staff are not afraid to draw inspiration from across the football world, and, like Mariota’s debut, which was an array of creative backfield motion concepts, my guess is that Ridder will have his first few drives heavily schemed.
26. Cleveland Browns (5–8)
Last week: loss at Cincinnati, 23–10
Next week: vs. Baltimore
I think it’s fair to say Deshaun Watson is now acclimated to the speed of the NFL game—whether or not he is acclimated to more modern schemes is a different question. For the second straight week, he did not see a lurking defender and threw a bad interception. As we discussed on this week’s MMQB podcast, I hope Browns veterans who came here at the end of their career hoping to win appreciate that they are being used as an extended Watson training camp for 2023.
27. Denver Broncos (3–10)
Last week: loss vs. Kansas City, 34–28
Next week: vs. Arizona
The Broncos aren’t in the bottom three because, I felt, they finally put some good football together Sunday. Patrick Mahomes was on his heels in the second half, having to utilize all of his pocket mobility gifts in order to find open receivers. Russell Wilson made some of the best plays with his legs that he’s made all year, and Jerry Jeudy finally got to have the kind of game we thought he would consistently.
28. Arizona Cardinals (4–9)
Last week: loss vs. New England, 27–13
Next week: at Denver
Monday night was a bottoming out of sorts for Arizona. Without Kyler Murray, we will get to see this team for what it is: a group that has struggled to craft an identity beyond its quarterback.
29. New Orleans Saints (4–9)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. Atlanta
The Saints have one job remaining for the rest of the season: improve their record enough so that the Eagles do not get to completely demolish the 2022 regular season and then get to pick in the top five of the draft.
30. Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1)
Last week: BYE
Next week: at Vikings
The Colts get a (likely) very upset Vikings team on Sunday coming off a bye. Minnesota is certainly vulnerable, and the Colts, despite being a bit of a barren roster, have some tools in the secondary to mitigate Justin Jefferson. Will Jeff Saturday stop a freefall?
31. Chicago Bears (3–10)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. Philadelphia
The Eagles await the Bears post-bye. The end of this season is about getting Justin Fields into a comfortable, confident place heading into 2023.
32. Houston Texans (1-11-1)
Last week: loss at Dallas, 27–23
Next week: vs. Kansas City
The Texans were one Damien Pierce injury away from beating one of the best teams in football. If nothing else, it’s a credit to the players who, amid a lost season, put together more pride than the rest of their franchise can muster.
