Welcome back to the Power Rankings. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving. I know I did. I very much enjoyed stepping back from football and just enjoying watching a family member try and hit on several legs of a wildly improbable parlay bet that captured the attention of the whole family for a few moments.
Let’s get right down to business, as there’s a lot to catch up on.
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1. Philadelphia Eagles (10–1)
Last week: win vs. Buffalo, 37–34
Next week: vs. San Francisco
I’m sure there is some kind of flaw we are overlooking with the Eagles, and perhaps with another team we’d be a little less dazzled and critical of slow starts. But the team’s collective resilience has been stunning and leaves very little room for questioning. Save for a blowout at the hands of the 49ers this week, I can’t not view them as Super Bowl favorites.
San Francisco 49ers (8–3)
Last week: win at Seattle, 31–13
Next week: at Philadelphia
As predicted, the 49ers’ three-game losing streak is now a distant memory. Also, as predicted, the 49ers seem forged by their little detour into substandard play. Christian McCaffrey had more than 100 rushing yards in the first half against their next-closest division rival, and San Francisco had a 21-point halftime lead. I would say that qualifies as being “back.”
3. Kansas City Chiefs (8–3)
Last week: win at Las Vegas, 31–17
Next week: at Green Bay
Rashee Rice’s best game as a member of the Chiefs came at a good time, and against a Raiders defense that was actually playing pretty well over the past month (like, top 10 in the league caliber). I’m not ready to declare the Chiefs’ patient experiment with the wideouts a success—the proof of that will ultimately come in critical moments. But it’s a long play that is sensible and cost efficient. And it feels more promising than it has in recent weeks.
4. Baltimore Ravens (9–3)
Last week: win at Los Angeles Chargers, 20–10
Next week: Bye
The Ravens uncorking the perfect fourth down blitz on Sunday night against the Chargers is why you’re hearing so much buzz about defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. Before the season, I was told the Ravens were expecting to lose him at some point in the near future. Once again, you’re seeing why.
5. Detroit Lions (8–3)
Last week: loss vs. Green Bay, 29–22
Next week: at New Orleans
I’m not going to penalize the Lions too much for getting sucker punched by a division rival on Thanksgiving. Most weeks, when a team rushes for 140 yards and has its quarterback post a no-interception, 100-plus QB rating game, they’re going to be OK. Of course, it’s when those occurrences are offset by three fumbles—and one gets returned for a touchdown—that those performances result in defeat.
6. Dallas Cowboys (8–3)
Last week: win vs. Washington, 45–10
Next week: vs. Seattle
In lieu of discussing this blowout, I am curious if, in the post-Jerry Jones NFL, is there a Thanksgiving 15 years down the road that doesn’t feature the Cowboys? I’m a traditionalist in a sense, but Dallas captured America’s attention at a different time. Something to think about I suppose. I bet DaRon Bland will still be posting ridiculous pick-sixes, though.
7. Miami Dolphins (8–3)
Last week: win at New York Jets, 34–13
Next week: at Washington
Mike McDaniel wins the award for my favorite sideline moment of the year. A Jets fan—possibly Wim Hoff?—made fun of him for using the heater during the end of a chilly Black Friday contest. McDaniel’s response? I’m cold…and also winning. Please get this man to a Super Bowl.
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (8–3)
Last week: win at Houston, 24–21
Next week: vs. Cincinnati
I mentioned this on the podcast, and while I’m open to having my mind changed, I feel like Sunday’s doink-saving win over the Houston Texans solidified for me that the AFC is now the Chiefs alone, the Ravens in a second tier, and the Jaguars and Dolphins in a third tier. While I wouldn’t be stunned to see Jacksonville get hot in a tournament—they are young and have a defense capable of generating a lot of turnovers under the right circumstances—I also don’t have Super Bowl vibes at this point. Working against that hunch is the fact that the Jaguars are perfect on the road this year.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (7–4)
Last week: win at Cincinnati, 16–10
Next week: vs. Arizona
I like that Mike Tomlin said this weekend’s six-point win over the Jake Browning-led Bengals wasn’t a eureka moment. I think equating this moment directly to the loss of Matt Canada is a bit of a mistake, even if the Steelers topped 400 yards for the first time in more than 50 games. This win was more about a complete and total shutdown of the Bengals’ run game, and putting a completely taxed Cincinnati defense on the field drive after drive.
10. Cleveland Browns (7–4)
Last week: loss at Denver, 29–12
Next week: at Los Angeles Rams
Albert Breer said it this week on the pod, and I laughed instinctively: Myles Garrett is the quarterback of this football team, and has been for the better part of a half decade now. The team goes as he goes. The fact that he is day-to-day means we can still envision a scenario where they slip into the playoffs.
11. Seattle Seahawks (6–5)
Last week: loss vs. San Francisco, 31–13
Next week: at Dallas
Another letdown for the Seahawks, now losers of two straight and three of their last four games. It’s the tenor of these losses that’s most concerning: a 37–3 loss to the Ravens; second loss to the Rams, a team that knows Seattle’s offense intimately; then, a blowout at the hands of the 49ers. Seattle has shifted in my mind from a team that could make the top-heavy NFC playoffs worth watching, to a team that may not even get into the top-heavy NFC playoffs.
12. Houston Texans (6–5)
Last week: loss vs. Jacksonville, 24–21
Next week: vs. Denver
I didn’t leave Sunday overly discouraged by the Texans, especially given the drive with a little more than five minutes left in the fourth quarter to put the game within three points. Surprise, CJ Stroud is still splitting defenders and playing cool. The one mistake he made—taking a massive sack that put the Texans into a second-and-25 situation on a potential game-tying or game-winning drive—looked like a screen that simply developed too slowly. Would we rather Stroud have pulled a Mac Jones and alley-ooped the ball to a place where a defender could grab it? He’s good enough to make up the difference. In a year, he’ll throw-spike that ball into the grass like Peyton Manning used to.
13. Buffalo Bills (6–6)
Last week: loss at Philadelphia, 37–34
Next week: Bye
Everyone saying “oh wow, the Bills offense looks better” is missing the point. The Bills merely ran Josh Allen a whole lot against the Eagles on Sunday—in fact, more times than Allen has run in a game all season. This was what Ken Dorsey was trying to avoid so that he wouldn’t be hurt in the playoffs every year. And a concept that he was still tinkering with as he got fired.
14. Minnesota Vikings (6–6)
Last week: loss vs. Chicago, 12–10
Next week: Bye
A tough loss for the Vikings, though one of the league’s surprise teams couldn’t stay hot forever. Four Josh Dobbs interceptions ended up being the dagger, even though Dobbs still drove the Vikings down the field for a potential game-winning touchdown drive. In true Vikings fashion, every loss is a one-score loss.
15. Indianapolis Colts (6–5)
Last week: win vs. Tampa Bay, 27–20
Next week: at Tennessee
Full thoughts on potential coach of the year Shane Steichen here. Backstory here. We are now a month into a heavier workload for Jonathan Taylor, and the results have been interesting now that the training wheels are off. The Colts are 3–2 during that time, which includes the very narrow one-point loss to Cleveland that seemed to be cooked up by referee minions nestled in the NFL deep state.
16. Denver Broncos (6–5)
Last week: win vs. Cleveland, 29–12
Next week: at Houston
Kudos to the Broncos, a team that we were very, very mean to, and has now won five straight games to make us all look a little silly. But here’s where I will push back slightly: Russell Wilson is playing well again because, like Josh Allen, he is running the football more. Wilson maxed out at eight rushing attempts last season, a year where he was either hurt, unwilling to run or both. Over the winning streak, Wilson has games of eight, nine and 11(!!) attempts, which he reached against the Browns on Sunday.
Lon Horwedel/USA TODAY Sports
17. Green Bay Packers (5–6)
Last week: win at Detroit, 29–22
Next week: vs. Kansas City
Removing the Pittsburgh loss from the equation, Jordan Love has now had games with QB ratings of 115.5, 108.5 and 125.5 over the last month. I don’t think, by any stretch, Love is a quarterback we would consider off pace. And just because Patrick Mahomes emerged from one year of sitting to become a superstar doesn’t mean the sitting philosophy negates periods of struggle. It’s so nice to see him emerging into some clear-headedness, able to show off his best traits.
18. Los Angeles Rams (5–6)
Last week: win at Arizona, 37–14
Next week: vs. Cleveland
Now winners of two straight, check out the Rams’ next few games: Cleveland sans quarterback, at Baltimore, Commanders, Saints, at Giants. You mean to tell me this team can’t reasonably reach nine wins heading into a season finale against a 49ers team that could possibly be resting starters with the No. 1 seed? Not so far-fetched a scenario.
19. Atlanta Falcons (5–6)
Last week: win vs. New Orleans, 24–15
Next week: at New York Jets
I thought that Arthur Smith could not emerge from the bye week without putting Bijan Robinson in some better spots, and lo and behold, we have the kind of fresh air game from Robinson we’ve been waiting for. This is not to say Smith didn’t want to put Robinson in space before or lacked the ability to do it, but sometimes time away brings clarity. This, like the early versions of the Brian Daboll-Daniel Jones offense with a healthy Saquon Barkley, is the only way forward for the Falcons.
20. New Orleans Saints (5–6)
Last week: loss at Atlanta, 24–15
Next week: vs. Detroit
I thought Derek Carr’s postgame press conference was a bit odd in that he lumped a pick six deep in Atlanta territory with other non-Carr related mistakes and penalties as an explainer of why the Saints lost. And while I am far from the kind of person who demands we put an undo amount of pressure on ourselves, I wonder how that kind of messaging is perceived to other people who are not basement troll football writers.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (5–6)
Last week: loss vs. Pittsburgh, 16–10
Next week: at Jacksonville
I would imagine the Bengals kind of free fall from here, but like I wrote the night Joe Burrow got hurt, there is value in going down this path. What is this team without a healthy Joe Burrow? If the Bengals were going to have a hiccup year, why not make it a valuable one?
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–7)
Last week: loss at Indianapolis, 27–20
Next week: vs. Carolina
The Buccaneers just look tired at times. And as tough as Baker Mayfield is, they can’t expect him to be sacked six times and win a game. Still, miraculously, confoundingly, the division is still somewhat up for grabs. The New York Times’s playoff simulator gives the Buccaneers a 15% chance of reaching the postseason, and far be it from me to disagree with an election-guessing supercomputer. But this team still has two games against the Panthers on tap, in addition to a couple of other winnable games.
23. Las Vegas Raiders (5–7)
Last week: loss vs. Kansas City, 31–17
Next week: Bye
Like we said in the Chiefs blurb, the Raiders have actually shown some pretty marked progress under Antonio Pierce. The defense, still manned by Patrick Graham, is a top-10 unit. The offense was never that good to begin with, but hasn’t gotten any worse! On the offensive front, it’s worth noting that Josh Jacobs became the first 100-yard rusher against the Chiefs in 12 weeks.
24. Los Angeles Chargers (4–7)
Last week: loss vs. Baltimore, 20–10
Next week: at New England
I think I have officially thrown in the towel. I really wanted to believe that, all things being equal, the Chargers would begin to win some of these games that were within the three-point margin deep into the fourth quarter. So much so that I kept them sky high in the power rankings, above playoff teams, week after week. And, while the Chargers do have five very winnable games coming up, one has to wonder if they can be perfect for that long of a stretch.
Kevin R. Wexler/USA TODAY NETWORK
25. New York Giants (4–8)
Last week: win vs. New England, 10–7
Next week: Bye
I think we learned everything we needed to learn about the Giants’ coaching staff after a second straight win with Tommy DeVito under center. Brian Daboll’s methods aren’t perfect. The staff isn’t perfect. No one is going to handle losing in an acceptable manner. But the Giants are ending the season with some momentum, and, hopefully, cementing the faith that Daboll earned a year ago.
26. New York Jets (4–7)
Last week: loss vs. Miami, 34–13
Next week: vs. Atlanta
As we head into the potential opening of Aaron Rodgers’s practice window, I have shifted my opinion on the matter. I feel like it does make sense for Rodgers to try and play this year, even if the season is lost. The Jets need some kind of momentum, not blind faith, going into next year. And if Rodgers looks every bit of 40, the Jets need to know that, too.
27. Tennessee Titans (4–7)
Last week: win vs. Carolina, 17–10
Next week: vs. Indianapolis
I thought it was interesting to hear Albert Breer on our podcast this week say pretty definitively that he felt the Titans were going to be in the quarterback market this offseason. Levis played alright against the Panthers, took just one sack and didn’t throw any picks. I’m not committed either way, but I am curious if, like Kyler Murray, Levis has some time to play his way out of the conversation.
28. Washington Commanders (4–8)
Last week: loss at Dallas, 45–10
Next week: vs. Miami
How wild is it that the Commanders-Cowboys game was close going into the fourth quarter (well, 10 points close) and a four-point game just before half? As we’ve said a million times, there are very brief stretches where this football team looks nearly complete, and others where they look completely bewildered and overmatched. A 25-point fourth quarter for the Cowboys, including a deflating pick-six, is evidence to the latter.
29. Chicago Bears (4–8)
Last week: win at Minnesota, 12–10
Next week: Bye
I think that there’s a world this season where the Bears are in that glob of teams that make up the NFL’s middle class. If the Broncos game goes a different way, if the Lions game has some better situational coaching, all of a sudden the Bears are 6–6 heading into the bye week. Then what do we think about Matt Eberflus and Justin Fields? How much more interesting is that No. 1 pick conversation? What are we saying about the defense picking off two quarterbacks seven times over the course of two weeks?
30. Arizona Cardinals (2–10)
Last week: loss vs. Los Angeles Rams, 37–14
Next week: at Pittsburgh
The Cardinals now hold the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft. It seems so unfair for Kyler Murray to have just returned from an ACL injury and now have to play for his job, but it makes these last few games extremely meaningful for Arizona. Through three games, he has a career-low passing success rate, which is a neat stat kept by Pro Football Reference that tracks the number of passes that pick up at least 40% of the yards to gain on first down, 60% on second down or 100% on third and fourth down plays. However, there’s a long way to go.
31. New England Patriots (2–9)
Last week: loss at New York Giants, 10–7
Next week: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Bill Belichick’s press conferences now seem a bit like the fart from Step Brothers. For a while, Belichick’s behavior, terseness and playful non-answers seemed cool. As Seth Rogan’s character said: “downplaying the formality of the thing.” But now that the team has weirdly switched between, cut and benched a handful of bad quarterbacks countless times, the whole thing feels a little “f— up.”
32. Carolina Panthers (1–10)
Last week: loss at Tennessee, 17–10
Next week: at Tampa Bay
About the fourth-and-6 screen pass that ended Carolina’s day Sunday: I’m not making a full-throated academic defense of the call but I am comparing it to what we saw at the end of Chargers-Ravens. The Chargers didn’t have (or Herbert did not see) a hot option to deal with a screaming blitz and he didn't even get a ball off. Sometimes, based on how bad your roster is, you only have the lesser of a few undesirable choices.
