Week 14 is in the books. If you have any more causes you need to address with your cleats, now is the time to trot them out before we only discuss playoff scenarios for the next month.
This was a fun week highlighted by a matchup between the Bills and Rams that nearly totaled 90 points (and, don’t forget about that 16-point affair between the Titans and Jaguars). While it didn’t quite serve to break us out of our Chiefs-ian trance and this habitual process of being lulled to sleep by a team causing us to miss some really brilliant quarterback play, it did set the table for what I feel could be a fun and enjoyable final stanza. And when you have this many script-writers on the payroll, why wouldn’t it be?
This week, as always, I am glad to have enjoyed a good mix of everything I loved: brilliant schemes, great individual performances and a guy going hoarse because he screamed at his punter for trying to move up in the scrum to make a tackle. God bless us all. Let’s get going:
1. Detroit Lions (12–1)
Last week’s ranking: No. 1
Last week’s result: beat Green Bay, 34–31
This week: vs. Buffalo
Example No. 374 of the Lions simply shedding problems that have been season-ruiners for other teams and continuing to excel: Dan Skipper started in place of Taylor Decker and allowed…one pressure. One pressure! Is there a bad player on this team?
Also, Dan Skipper rules:
Going back through Thursday and watching Dan Skipper's excellent performance supplanting Taylor Decker and remembered that I saw him do something hilarious during the violent Lions-Giants training camp battle of 2024: pic.twitter.com/LSyKPdaE4E
— Conor Orr (@ConorOrr) December 10, 2024
2. Buffalo Bills (10–3)
Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Last week’s result: lost to Los Angeles Rams, 44–42
This week: at Detroit
The good: The Khalil Shakir breakout game has arrived. For those of us who have been promising the full realization of his talent for a while now (a link from this summer and a link from shortly before that) it truly is a great time to say I told you so. I was so impressed by his ability to take an underthrown Josh Allen ball in the fourth quarter from yesterday and turn it into a massive pass interference penalty, showing his veteran chops as well as his breakaway speed on the touchdown.
The bad: Taking a quarterback sneak at the end of that game with three timeouts. Sean McDermott has been rightfully held to task for this one. If we’re going to lift him up for making the big call against Kansas City, we are obligated to point out that depriving this team of a chance to hold the Rams on one series and get the ball back was a poor choice, especially since Allen did not have a good look on that sneak.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (12–1)
Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Last week’s result: vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 19–17
This week: at Cleveland Browns
I hope I don’t sound like Cris Collinsworth here, but after re-watching Sunday night’s Chiefs-Chargers game I’ve come away with a new level of appreciation for Patrick Mahomes. Basing your thoughts solely on NextGenStats, one might come away with the thought that Mahomes was under pressure a lot. This is true … kind of. On a lot of snaps, there was just no one to throw to. But on snaps where there was true pressure, like one with a little more than 11 minutes to go in the second quarter, he hits a sidearm dart to Juju Smith-Schuster for a first down.
This has been the biggest reason, in my opinion, that Kansas City’s margin of victory has shriveled. There’s fewer options to bail out Mahomes anymore from a receiving perspective and we’re seeing him forced to evolve yet again.
4. Minnesota Vikings (11–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 4
Last week’s result: beat Atlanta, 42–21
This week: vs. Chicago
I could tell this was going to be a Sam Darnold heater game from his first completion to Jordan Addison, which was a beautiful second-read throw. After Justin Jefferson was covered coming off pre-snap motion, Darnold went second level and hit Addison as he was fading out of bounds. The Vikings’ offensive line should be thankful; they were heavily vulnerable in the early portions of this game, giving up some big sacks on three and four-man pressures that were as simple as a guy getting beat.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10–3)
Last week’s ranking: No. 6
Last week’s result: beat Cleveland, 27–14
This week: at Philadelphia
The largest swing in win probability between the Steelers and Browns happened on a Keenu Benton interception on a screen pass intended for Nick Chubb. What’s interesting is that, before the play is snapped, TJ Watt is doing a kind of rock paper scissors hand signal and keeps looking backward at Elandon Roberts. Roberts finally nods just before the play starts and all of a sudden, every defender on that side of the line swarms for the area where Chubb is going to be and the ball gets picked. I would die to know what someone on Pittsburgh’s front seven saw that gave it away but regardless, it defines why this team can so perfectly win in the margins.
Love watching this communication between Watt and Elandon Roberts. Roberts nods to him just before the play starts confirming some sign Watt keeps giving him.
— Conor Orr (@ConorOrr) December 10, 2024
Then...everyone applies pressure to the right spot and swarms the ball. pic.twitter.com/qiOZZ7QXI0
6. Philadelphia Eagles (11–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Last week’s result: beat Carolina, 22–16
This week: vs. Pittsburgh
The moment a team trades for, drafts, or signs a great wide receiver, there must be a Batman villain-type countdown clock to when the bomb of discontent explodes. I thought Brandon Graham’s assessment of A.J. Brown saying that “passing” was the team’s issue following a narrow win over the Panthers was pretty damning. Graham appeared to hint at a fractured friendship between Jalen Hurts and Brown.
“1 [Hurts] is trying. 11 [Brown] could be better at how he responds to things.”
I agree. I love Brown. He’s an incredibly dynamic player but I understand why it’s complicated. Brown is one of the best blocking receivers in the NFL. In the Rams’ offense, for example, that translates to a lot of receptions. In Philly, that’s been one game of double-digit targets all season.
7. Baltimore Ravens (8–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 8
Last week’s result: bye
This week: at New York Giants
The Ravens kick off a post-bye slate against the Giants at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. With an all-important Steelers game lingering in the near distance, we’ll see what kind of Baltimore team is prepping to show up. Take note, via NextGenStats: only one team allows more rushing yardage after missed tackles than the New York Giants. And almost no one gains more yardage after missed tackles than Derrick Henry.
8. Green Bay Packers (9–4)
Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Last week’s result: lost to Detroit, 34–31
This week: at Seattle
Two quick points that kind of stem from the same thesis:
• Watching how hard a linebacker has to commit to Josh Jacobs and then watching how much difficulty they have in pass coverage after it’s revealed to be play action really solidifies the strength of the Green Bay offense.
• Jacobs missed a block—not that I blame him for it—on a screamer of a blitz and Love’s ability to evade and hit Christian Watson for a first down plus was one of the most impressive throws I saw on Sunday, maybe just behind Sam Darnold’s touchdown to Justin Jefferson.
9. Seattle Seahawks (8–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 11
Last week’s result: beat Arizona, 30–18
This week: vs. Green Bay
Credit to the Seahawks’ offensive staff. Their pre-snap motion in the running game had the Cardinals’ linebackers on skates and made the difference on a few big-time runs from Zach Charbonnet. The jet sweep handoff to Charbonnet on the 1-yard touchdown was one of my favorite cheeky maneuvers of the season.
Zach Charbonnet goes in motion and goes into the end zone for the @Seahawks TD!
— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2024
📺: #SEAvsAZ on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/aHkrqMRQKZ
Heading into this game, Seattle was one of the least effective pre-snap motion teams in the NFL.
10. Washington Commanders (8–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Last week’s result: bye
This week: at New Orleans
Coming off a bye and immediately inheriting the Saints without Derek Carr is not the worst situation for a Commanders team eyeing win No. 9. While I wouldn’t discount this Saints team, there were about 9,000 things that had to go absolutely right in order for New Orleans to hang on against the Giants—one of the worst teams in the NFL.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7–6)
Last week’s ranking: No. 13
Last week’s result: beat Las Vegas, 28–13
This week: at Los Angeles Chargers
As predicted a few weeks ago when looking at Atlanta’s grueling schedule, the Buccaneers have shifted into a power position in the NFC South playoff race in good time. While it’s not over—ESPN has the Buccaneers at a 73% chance of making the playoffs and the Falcons at 34%—I’ll continue to lean on my initial take that this team can get red hot and cause some serious damage in the postseason.
12. Los Angeles Rams (7–6)
Last week’s ranking: No. 18
Last week’s result: beat Buffalo, 44–42
This week: at San Francisco
As a lifetime cynic I’ll always resist joy to some degree but I can’t tell you how much it thoroughly warms my heart to know that the Rams, in order to keep this season on the rails, now have to pivot to a divisional battle against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. What a slog for Sean McVay’s team, which is just getting healthy at the right time.
13. Los Angeles Chargers (8–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 9
Last week’s result: lost to Kansas City, 19–17
This week: vs. Tampa Bay
Quentin Johnston has had issues with his hands since college, but the explosive get off from the line of scrimmage on Sunday night against Kansas City and the ability to hold on to the ball during a massive collision was impressive. If Johnston can develop on this kind of timeline we could have a beast on our hands in Year 3.
Quentin Johnston with explosive get-off here and holds on to a ball during a huge collision. His best game in a few weeks but a ton of progress in the clutch. pic.twitter.com/MhdsC4XxME
— Conor Orr (@ConorOrr) December 10, 2024
14. Denver Broncos (8–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 12
Last week’s result: bye
This week: vs. Indianapolis
The Broncos, another of the 600 teams on bye this week, comes back in a position where the future is firmly in their grasp. They are the team currently fending off the Dolphins and Colts and face Indianapolis on Sunday. This is a game tailormade for Sean Payton and Bo Nix to go and take. A developing downfield passer faces one of the more vulnerable deep ball teams in the NFL. The same could be said for Vance Joseph against Anthony Richardson. Could the likes of Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen make life hell for the second-year QB?
15. Houston Texans (8–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 15
Last week’s result: bye
This week: vs. Miami
The Texans aren’t exactly a team on the skids—the team did survive against Jacksonville the week before the bye—but I have a hard time penciling in a win against Miami at home. This Dolphins team is remade and Houston has posted a net positive EPA for the offense as a unit just twice since Oct. 20. Since Week 8, the Texans are 24th in offensive EPA, 24th in dropback EPA and 27th in dropback success rate.
16. Indianapolis Colts (6–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 16
Last week’s result: bye
This week: at Denver
A good note from Colts reporter Stephen Holder before the bye: The Colts have essentially doubled the amount of designed reads for Anthony Richardson. It’s kind of the Josh Allen principle in Buffalo. The team tried—and fired an offensive coordinator who was directed to try—to keep Josh Allen in the pocket. But when the rewards are so great, you simply live with the risk that something horrible might happen.
17. Miami Dolphins (6–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 17
Last week’s result: beat New York Jets, 32–26
This week: at Houston
Jonnu Smith has been the second best tight end in the NFL since Miami’s Week 6 bye. And while he was a ghost in this game until the fourth quarter—at least in terms of receptions—it’s clear what he means to this offense. The amount of sheer yards he’s been accountable for in terms of the success of others has been ridiculous. Example: on a big pass to Waddle at the beginning of the game Sunday, Smith spaces himself out another few yards wide, then, that width ends up preventing the defender guarding him from closing on Waddle and making a tackle.
18. Arizona Cardinals (6–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 14
Last week’s result: lost to Seattle, 30–18
This week: vs. New England
Jonathan Gannon’s team, since Week 10, is 21st in rushing EPA per play allowed and 29th in rushing success rate per play. Touchdown drives of 71 and 80 yards were effective wrecking balls for Seattle to complement an otherwise big-play, quick-scoring offense.
19. San Francisco 49ers (6–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 19
Last week’s result: beat Chicago, 38–13
This week: vs. Los Angeles Rams
The 49ers looked great on Sunday against a flat-footed Bears team but now have to play for their bare-minimum survival this week on short rest with their … checks notes … 67th-string running back. While finding backs to thrive in this system hasn’t been a challenge for Kyle Shanahan, the numbers game has to look daunting at some point. Still, it must have been nice to drop back and look out to see all of their targeted mismatches coming to fruition, creating tons of receptions for folks like George Kittle.
20. Atlanta Falcons (6–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 21
Last week’s result: lost to Minnesota, 42–21
This week: at Las Vegas
I wrote about why the Falcons needed to stay put with Kirk Cousins but there are so many other improvements that need to happen along the way. Against Minnesota we saw the depth of their issues in the secondary. Sam Darnold had the greatest game for a Vikings QB since Daunte Culpepper while making a lot of good throws … and a handful of layups downfield to a wide open Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson. The Falcons are now rushing the passer wonderfully but stopping the pass worse than almost any other team in the NFL.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (5–8)
Last week’s ranking: No. 20
Last week’s result: beat Dallas, 27–20
This week: at Tennessee
If there was a perfect depiction of the apathy on that Bengals’ defense that will force the team into making some kind of serious change this offseason, it might be this:
this “coverage” on 4th & 1 pic.twitter.com/BkfLTK2d1E
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) December 10, 2024
Joe Burrow said the Bengals would find out who wants to play in these coming weeks. They have an answer there!
22. Dallas Cowboys (5–8)
Last week’s ranking: No. 22
Last week’s result: lost to Cincinnati, 27–20
This week: at Carolina
When you’re worried that the roof is shedding loose parts and violently careening toward earth, you simply open it up so that God can watch the Cowboys play. 3-D chess for Dallas’s owner, as always.
23. Chicago Bears (4–9)
Last week’s ranking: No. 25
Last week’s result: lost to San Francisco, 38–13
This week: at Minnesota
If you’re a Bears fan, I’m not quite sure how you’re couching anything at this moment. But I came away with two thoughts:
1. Matt Eberflus was a good defensive coordinator, and without him the Bears looked predictable and easy to take advantage of. That was the most effortless I’ve seen the 49ers in some time.
2. Caleb Williams’s snap-to-throw times have been all over the place. And as encouraging as it was to see it winnow down to a rocket-fast 2.42, it’s since bounced up into the 3.4 area on Thanksgiving weekend and is now around 2.9.
24. New Orleans Saints (5–8)
Last week’s ranking: No. 24
Last week’s result: beat New York Giants, 14–11
This week: vs. Washington
A 14–11 victory in which: Darren Rizzi nearly murdered his punter; a Saints player was body-slammed causing a field goal to be taken off the board; and Derek Carr broke his hand on a wildly confusing bootleg run.
Just watch this again. It’s beautiful:
Darren Rizzi was laying into Matthew Hayball after that punt return pic.twitter.com/ubpNd1eidC
— Sharief Ishaq (@ShariefWDSU) December 8, 2024
25. Carolina Panthers (3–10)
Last week’s ranking: No. 23
Last week’s result: lost to Philadelphia, 22–16
This week: vs. Dallas
I think whatever you felt you were missing out of Bryce Young in terms of chest-thumping and showboating when he came into the league, you’re getting back in empathy and humility, which is really the kind of person he’s always been (shameless plug). His words on Xavier Legette, who dropped the game winner, are worth listening to.
We’ve Got Your Back, X! 💙
— Carolina Panthers Pride (@pantherspridex) December 8, 2024
Panthers QB, Bryce Young, shares some words of confidence for Rookie WR, Xavier Legette. Legette dropped the game-winning touchdown on one of the last plays of the game. We love to see our QB build up the players around him!#Panthers #KeepPounding pic.twitter.com/4Fagt6thLC
26. New England Patriots (3–10)
Last week’s ranking: No. 28
Last week’s result: bye
This week: at Arizona
This is the part of the season where Jerod Mayo needs to truly dig his heels into the ground and maintain. Two games against Buffalo left. Arizona. The Chargers. All teams that need every last victory. He can’t get wiped off the map with critical 2025 offseason momentum hanging in the balance.
27. Cleveland Browns
Last week’s ranking: No. 27
Last week’s result: lost to Pittsburgh, 27–14
This week: vs. Kansas City
As usual, the Browns are an agent of chaos at this point. They finish the season with almost only quality opponents—Chiefs, Dolphins, Ravens—and then end the year with the Titans. So, it’s bananas no matter what. Cleveland could win some of these games with high-wire Jameis Winston and completely ruin Miami’s season, Baltimore’s seeding or the Chiefs possibly fending off Buffalo for the No. 1 seed. If they lose out, they’ll meet the rapidly falling Titans in the finale with one of the top picks at stake.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (3–10)
Last week’s ranking: No. 30
Last week’s result: beat Tennessee, 10–6
This week: vs. New York Jets
With Bill Belichick very openly flirting with the North Carolina job across several media platforms, I’ll revert back to my reporting on the situation from earlier this week. I think part of this could be a call and (hopeful) response of sorts. Jacksonville was an obvious Belichick destination at the beginning of the season and now we’re at the point where the Jaguars seem intent on sticking out the remainder of this season with Doug Pederson. Could something happen? And if nothing happens, does that give us a window into what the Khan family is looking for—if they are indeed looking—at the end of the season?
29. New York Jets (3–10)
Last week’s ranking: No. 29
Last week’s result: lost to Miami, 32–26
This week: at Jacksonville
How about this for a statistic: If you remove Robert Saleh’s first season with the Jets, which was kind of a wash with a horrible roster that needed to be torched in a brushfire, the coach was 13–3 in games in which the Jets scored 20 or more points (17–7 even if you include that first season). Since Saleh was fired, the Jets are 1–5 in such games. Sunday’s game against the Dolphins was a clinic in how to wither in the fourth quarter, from being unable to pick up a first down after gaining seven yards on first-and-10, to taking big, gutting sacks while in field goal range, to kicking the ball right at a dynamic return man … this mess requires professional help for cleanup. You know, kind of like the help they got rid of.
30. New York Giants (2–11)
Last week’s ranking: No. 32
Last week’s result: lost to New Orleans, 14–11
This week: vs. Baltimore
I said as much on this week’s MMQB podcast, but I think Giants fans wearing paper bags over their heads asking John Mara to sell the team are idiots. Plain and simple. Maybe they’re doing this for attention but Mara is not even close to one of the worst owners in sports. I think these people, flying planes over MetLife and clearly failing to understand what a rebuild looks like, should spend a few weeks in Green and White and then tell me whether they’re O.K. with a regime whose biggest fault may be patience and loyalty.
31. Tennessee Titans (3–10)
Last week’s ranking: No. 26
Last week’s result: lost to Jacksonville, 10–6
This week: vs. Cincinnati
Your cool Titans related note of the week, which I had to borrow from NFL Pro because that game against the Jaguars was wholly unwatchable: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has a catch to touchdown ratio of 20:8. In the Super Bowl era that’s tied for the best ratio ever. See, it’s not all bad!
32. Las Vegas Raiders (2–11)
Last week’s ranking: No. 31
Last week’s result: lost to Tampa Bay, 28–13
This week: vs. Atlanta
Good luck over there everyone!
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Power Rankings: Bills Rise Despite Barnburner Loss to Rams.
