Here’s something worth thinking about seven weeks into the season, as we approach a period of time when I’d bet we start pivoting from “final fumes of hope” season to “I think we need a fresh start” season. Look at the top six teams on this list. Sean McDermott is a defensive head coach. Andy Reid is a 64-year-old West Coast devotee who spent most of his career before becoming a head coach as an offensive line coach. Nick Sirianni spent a lot of his formative growth years under Frank Reich. And Brian Daboll was an offensive coach who has been almost everywhere, from New England to Alabama to Cleveland under Eric Mangini to Kansas City under Romeo Crennel, the year the Chiefs went 2–14.
The point is that none of them, you would argue, were from some kind of trendy system at their point of hiring. They all had ups and downs. They all had a breadth of experience. They all arrived at their teams, where they are having success, by doing something markedly different from the team they were hired from as a coordinator.
Which is a long way of saying: it doesn’t have to look a certain way, as long as the talent, the knowledge and the humility are there.
1. Buffalo Bills (5–1)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. Green Bay
Here’s something wild about the Bills: They are 18th in red zone efficiency and third in the NFL in turnovers, and they are still, far and away, the best team in the more competitive conference. Imagine when those numbers trend back toward neutral.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (5–2)
Last week: win vs. San Francisco, 44–23
Next week: BYE
A decisive, bounce-back performance against the 49ers on Sunday helps the Chiefs stabilize after an emotional loss to the Bills. This was a big-time performance from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, featuring eight quarterback hits and five sacks. While coaches always say pressure numbers come in bunches, it had to be a confidence boost for their pedestrian (so far) line to get after Jimmy Garoppolo.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (6–0)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. Pittsburgh
The Eagles are perfect thus far, with games against the Steelers, Texans and Commanders coming. While there are certainly trap games nestled along this path, Philadelphia has more talent and better quarterback play than any of these teams. One would imagine that if the Phillies somehow steal a World Series from the nefarious, cheatin’ Astros and the Eagles are undefeated into mid-November, the city of Philadelphia would somehow break away from the rest of Pennsylvania and the United States and govern themselves as a separate, elite city-state of champions (with Jason Kelce as president).
4. Minnesota Vikings (5–1)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. Arizona
Coming off the bye, it’s breakaway time for the Vikings. With the Packers reeling, the Vikings have incredibly winnable games against the Cardinals and Commanders. One would assume a 7–1 record would be close to uncatchable in the NFC North.
5. Dallas Cowboys (5–2)
Last week: win vs. Detroit, 24–6
Next week: vs. Chicago
It’s hard to verbalize the fear around the league caused by Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs and DeMarcus Lawrence. At this point, positive plays against the Cowboys are merely an accident. Imagine what this looks like when Dak Prescott gets healthy and comfortable again.
Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports
6. New York Giants (6–1)
Last week: win at Jacksonville, 23–17
Next week: at Seattle
I can’t remember a complete cultural deep cleaning like the one Brian Daboll performed in the damp recesses of the Giants’ facility. This is absolutely stunning. The same group of players who were conditioned to believe they were broken are now forming the parts of a team that, according to FiveThirtyEight, has a more than 80% chance of reaching the postseason.
7. Cincinnati Bengals (4–3)
Last week: win vs. Atlanta, 35–17
Next week: at Cleveland (Monday)
Despite their early-season struggles, the Bengals still have the fifth-best point differential in the NFL. If Joe Burrow can promise us an unleashed cannon 400-yard game every few weeks, it’s comfortable to cement them in the top 10 of the NFL.
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8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3–4)
Last week: loss at Carolina, 21–3
Next Week: vs. Baltimore (Thursday)
I’m not ready to call the Buccaneers broken, and while it’s a lot to ask a 45-year-old to overcome some deficiencies in the interior of his offensive line, he’s had far more meager circumstances in New England and ended up with better records.
9. Baltimore Ravens (4–3)
Last week: win vs. Cleveland, 23–20
Next week: at Tampa Bay (Thursday)
While rush EPA/play doesn’t necessarily translate to direct success (the Browns are No. 1 and the Patriots are No. 2) the Ravens are still moving the ball at a steady clip. Despite some late-game defensive breakdowns, they are sixth in point differential and in a steady position to make the playoffs.
10. New York Jets (5–2)
Last week: win at Denver, 16–9
Next week: vs. New England
Quinnen Williams is playing like a man possessed (by Chris Jones?). Robert Saleh’s defense is fast and free, Sauce Gardner is playing like an elite No. 1 cornerback and Zach Wilson’s pocket mobility has gotten so much better since the end of last year, which allows him to evade rushes calmly and get the ball to his checkdowns.
11. Los Angeles Rams (3–3)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. San Francisco
The Rams’ pursuit of Christian McCaffrey shows just how much they are hurting for playmakers. While Allen Robinson started to blend in a bit during the Panthers’ victory, one would assume Sean McVay didn’t do much resting during the bye week trying to figure out what to do without a breakaway running back or a true 1A wide receiver.
12. Green Bay Packers (3–4)
Last week: loss at Washington, 23–21
Next week: at Buffalo
It’s difficult to build a run-first offense when you can’t run the ball against light boxes. Aaron Jones has the lowest frequency of 8-man boxes in the NFL and was still plastered behind the line against the Commanders this week. AJ Dillon, their thicker, workhorse back, sees only 8-man boxes 14% of the time.
13. Miami Dolphins (4–3)
Last week: win vs. Pittsburgh, 16–10
Next week: at Detroit
Mike McDaniel’s team is rolling with the punches, and while it may be firmly cemented in that second tier, it can beat any club at any time. Holding tight against the Steelers and ending a potential game-winning drive Sunday night flashed the depth of its roster.
14. San Francisco 49ers (3–4)
Last week: loss vs. Kansas City, 44–23
Next week: at Los Angeles Rams
Excuse time is quickly coming to an end in San Francisco. Having Christian McCaffrey for only a handful of days is understandable in terms of the Chiefs’ loss (so is a loss to the Chiefs whenever it happens). But if this offense doesn’t soon trend toward dominant, it will be a major disappointment.
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15. Los Angeles Chargers (4–3)
Last week: loss vs. Seattle, 37–23
Next week: BYE
Speaking of major disappointments, Justin Herbert being 19th in completion percentage over expectation plus expected points added per snap is inexcusable. I understand that offenses have their limitations, but I also think that some coaches allow themselves to be boxed in by those limitations. Andy Dalton having more play-per-play inefficiency is a horrible look.
16. Seattle Seahawks (4–3)
Last week: win at Los Angeles Chargers, 37–23
Next week: vs. New York Giants
Pete Carroll is always smiling, but now the smile seems less forced, like the kind you give your child when they spill a brand-new iced coffee on the carpet. Now, it’s like a “I am really enjoying this iced coffee that hasn’t been spilled on the carpet” smile. There’s a big difference.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
17. Tennessee Titans (4–2)
Last week: win vs. Indianapolis, 19–10
Next week: at Houston
The Titans are pretty O.K. at not turning the ball over and pretty O.K. at forcing turnovers. Regardless of what happens from here on out, they have established a kind of comfortable equilibrium, where they can surf to a division title despite an almost net zero point differential.
18. Indianapolis Colts (3-3-1)
Last week: loss at Tennessee, 19–10
Next week: vs. Washington
The Colts have the Commanders, Patriots and the Josh McDaniels bowl all coming up, which are certainly winnable games that can help them course-correct. Their 3-3-1 record is not a death sentence in that division right now, but the Colts are circling the moment when they might be unable to catch the Titans and also shut out for a wild-card spot.
19. Atlanta Falcons (3–4)
Last week: loss at Cincinnati, 35–17
Next week: vs. Carolina
The Falcons have a heap of winnable games coming up in which we’ll discover whether they are a fringe playoff team or not. They currently possess the worst opponent pass success rate, which is better than 50% on a down to down basis. If they can get that back to mediocre, the Falcons could be on to something.
20. New England Patriots (3–4)
Last week: loss vs. Chicago, 33–14 (Monday)
Next week: at New York Jets
This loss was among the more surprising in the post–Bill Belichick era. Normally, this is a coach who toys with young quarterbacks who are still carving out responsibilities within their offense. But a smashing run game did in the best laid defensive plans. The momentary spark the Patriots gained by pivoting to Bailey Zappe pales in comparison to the headaches it likely will cause down the road.
21. Arizona Cardinals (3–4)
Last week: win vs. New Orleans, 42–34
Next week: at Minnesota
DeAndre Hopkins’s return certainly makes the Cardinals’ offense function more sensibly. Kyler Murray was 6-of-8 in the 10- to 20-yard range against New Orleans, which could help get defenses off their backs again and allow for them to bolster their sneakily efficient running game, which thrives off the light boxes Murray can create.
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22. Jacksonville Jaguars (2–5)
Last week: loss vs. New York Giants, 23–17
Next week: vs. Denver
It’s strange to say, but the Jaguars seem to be getting better each week in losses, or, at least they are developing an identity for the long term as an offense. Trevor Lawrence’s ball distribution has been solid, with four different receivers getting four or more catches. He’s not leaning on (and may be underutilizing) his checkdown options. There is room to grow.
23. Las Vegas Raiders (2–4)
Last week: win vs. Houston, 38–20
Next week: at New Orleans Saints
The Raiders are not out of it by any stretch. This team is talented and mashed the lowly Texans on the ground this week, a likely reflection of how Josh McDaniels would like these things to go. I don’t see 8–4 or 7–5 being completely out of the question by early December.
Stephen R. Sylvanie/USA TODAY Sports
24. Denver Broncos (2–5)
Last week: loss vs. New York Jets, 16–9
Next week: at Jacksonville
The Broncos had a solid opportunity to put some points on the board against a quality defense without Russell Wilson in the lineup, but came up short. After the game, Nathaniel Hackett was saying what many of us were thinking: “I’m sick of being up here saying the same thing over and over again. The opportunities are there. At some point we have to take it; there’s no excuses. We’ve been in every single game. We have to win these games.”
25. Detroit Lions (1–5)
Last week: loss at Dallas, 24–6
Next week: vs. Miami
The Lions absolutely squandered a good opportunity Sunday, and Dan Campbell knows it (so does his headset). While the defense played better for three quarters, this has been the story of the Lions’ season to date: moments of brilliance counterweighted by untimely miscues.
26. Pittsburgh Steelers (2–5)
Last week: loss at Miami, 16–10
Next week: at Philadelphia
Kenny Pickett struggled in a prime-timer against the Dolphins. However, the bad was mixed in with a handful of seriously good, seriously clutch throws that aren’t easy to make. We know the Steelers are in for some long weeks. The question is: How long will the Steelers be patient knowing that they may have one of the most dynamic receiving rooms in all of football?
27. Chicago Bears (3–4)
Last week: win at New England, 33–14 (Monday)
Next week: at Dallas
The Patriots’ ability to consistently shift their defensive focus and make every snap look like a full-on hailstorm is difficult for any quarterback. It’s especially difficult for Justin Fields, who hasn’t gotten the time to build into a stable, every-down thrower, and whose own team seems to be scheming around that possibility.
28. New Orleans Saints (2–5)
Last week: loss at Arizona, 42–34 (Thursday)
Next week: vs. Oakland
The Saints looked like an absolute mess Thursday night against the equally messy Cardinals. If they’re not sellers at the trade deadline to try to make up for the loss of draft capital in 2021, it would be bordering on malpractice.
29. Cleveland Browns (2–5)
Last week: loss at Baltimore, 23–20
Next week: vs. Cincinnati (Monday)
The Browns are 2–5. Despite a league-best rushing offense, the Browns are 28th in points surrendered, 31st in rushing touchdowns allowed and 23rd in net yards per attempt. Good thing Deshaun Watson also plays cornerback.
30. Washington Commanders (3–4)
Last week: win vs. Green Bay, 23–21
Next week: at Indianapolis
Last year, podcast cohost Gary Gramling complained about the annoyingly lingering Falcons (who turned into the enjoyably lingering Falcons in 2022, so there is hope). The Commanders, who sit at 3–4, are just good enough to keep themselves on the radar, even though the quality of win is an absolute slog. They have the talent to compete situationally with some quality opponents, as we saw Sunday. They may not be going anywhere.
31. Houston Texans (1-4-1)
Last week: loss at Las Vegas, 38–20
Next week: vs. Tennessee
Without a front seven in the AFC, the Texans regularly find themselves knocked around against the run and are even worse against the pass, which is a tough spot for Lovie Smith to be in, given that he’s made his reputation on pass defense. This isn’t a roster ready to compete yet, though we thought they’d have a little more fight in 2022.
32. Carolina Panthers (2–5)
Last week: win vs. Tampa Bay, 2–3
Next week: at Atlanta
A nice win for Steve Wilks, who should probably still be a head coach somewhere, and may have been if he didn’t run into the Josh Rosen Cardinals debacle. That said, this Carolina team is preparing for another season already.
