The Jacksonville Jaguars will kick off the divisional round of the playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium, and they’ll have to manage Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs’ explosive offense if they are to make their first AFC Championship game since the 2017 season.
In their week 10 matchup earlier this year, the Jaguars lost 27-17, and Patrick Mahomes went 5-for-5 on throws of 20 or more air yards. Overall, Mahomes finished with 331 yards and a passer rating of 129.6.
Tight end Travis Kelce went for 81 yards on six receptions. Since then, the Jaguars’ defense has allowed 62 yards per game to tight ends, which is the worst number in the league, according to Football Outsiders.
Kelce is an all-timer at the position, so it won’t be an easy task to keep him contained.
Here is what Jaguars defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell recently said about Kelce, “That’s a thing you talk about and you talk to the players about, being able to understand the game and the way he’s able to find holes in the defense or find weak areas or drift away from a coverage guy in zone coverage, you can tell that from being a former quarterback you can tell that he is able to see the soft spot in the defense, so that’s things we talk about and just have to be aware of it.”
In their last matchup, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid did a great job putting his guys on crossing routes over the middle of the field, testing the discipline of the Jaguars’ secondary.
The Jaguars’ linebackers weren’t deep enough in coverage, and the safeties failed to switch off their matchups when routes were run into their zones.
In week 18 against the Las Vegas Raiders, safety Duron Harmon showed a great switch when Kelce crossed behind his linebacker and so he picked up the other crossing route going deep.
Now, the result of this play was because the backside safety didn’t cover his half of the field and help the corner. But the switch off of Kelce, from the free safety, was smooth.
Reid does a fantastic job forcing the safeties and less experienced secondary players into tough situations.
He did this in their first matchup, putting pressure on cornerback Tre Herndon and safety Andre Cisco.
If the Jaguars want to keep this game in reach, they must be able to properly switch responsibilities mid-play when in zone defense. Stay on their assignments for as long as possible until the switch. Staying aggressive, not drifting away from their zones.
If the Jaguars are going to go with man coverage, expect Reid to target Herndon. In their last game, Herndon allowed three catches on three targets for 60 yards with an average of 20 yards per reception.
Both offenses should make this game a shoot-out. The Chiefs’ defense is 31st in the league against opposing No. 1 one wide receivers, giving up 81.2 yards per game. The Jaguars are 28th, giving up 65.2 yards per game.
If the Jaguars defense can come up with a few big stops, they have a chance to help their defense win this and shock the football world… but it all starts with the safeties in the back.
