As the regular season draws to a close, we’ll take a look each Friday at a game likely to affect the playoff race, along with the teams whose fortunes are rising and falling. And, so we don’t neglect the also-rans, we’ll see which teams are in the hunt for next year’s No 1 pick.
Game of the week
Dallas Cowboys (10-3) v Buffalo Bills (7-6)
Story of the season: Following the thread of the Bills is a must at this stage of such a white-knuckle ride for both the franchise and the AFC as a whole. After surviving a battle with the Super Bowl champions to keep their season alive, they are 7-6 but need to keep stacking wins owing to their poor divisional record and the minor detail of half of the conference having an identical win-loss column. Victory has the potential to send the Bills from 11th to squeezing inside the postseason running at seventh place, so beating Kansas City was vital but so now is toppling the Cowboys. Dallas roll into Buffalo fresh off dominating the Philadelphia Eagles, a statement victory that puts them in pole position in the NFC East and keeps their pedal to the metal across from the 49ers in the race for the NFC’s top seed. Winning out remains their most likely and possibly only shot at taking the conference crown. The pressure is intense.
What the Bills need to do to win: Buffalo may be down but their impressive home form (5-2) still gives them the advantage. They need to feed off Bills Mafia and their unique fervor to continue their impressive run. The fever will be pitched at a colossal height as the team comes home after a month away from Highmark Stadium. The crowd can also help in pumping up receiver Stefon Diggs who is suffering a slump at the wrong time for his team. Diggs started strong with 100 yards or more in five of his first six games but in his past six has averaged less than six catches and 58 receiving yards a game. The lack of usage needs to be addressed by the coaching staff, give the crowd what they want: the Diggs comeback special.
What the Cowboys need to do to win: Head coach Mike McCarthy’s offensive production is assured with quarterback Dak Prescott linking up with receiver CeeDee Lamb. The former’s sublime season has him leading the MVP race while the latter needs 107 yards and two touchdowns to beat his previous best year to date. The defense needs to keep quarterback Josh Allen stymied to avoid getting into a high-stakes shootout of whoever has the ball last wins. Statistically Allen provides both carrot and stick for them: he leads the NFL in giveaways and total touchdowns with 17 turnovers playing 33 scores. Pressure is where they can look to diminish Allen’s influence; he has completed 50.4% of passes when under fire compared to 75.2% in a clean pocket this year and has thrown six interceptions under pressure. The considerable talent of pass rushers Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Dante Fowler need to be unleashed by defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn. Rookie kicker Brandon Aubrey maintaining a perfect start to his career would be very useful, too. The former software engineer, aged 28, has yet to miss from his first 30 field goal attempts, an NFL record.
Playoff race risers and fallers
Rising: AFC North (mostly)
“Maybe the tradition of the Pittsburgh Steelers is done,” Ben Roethlisberger said, on his podcast Footbahlin with Ben Roethlisberger, reflecting on his team’s defeat to the lowly Patriots. Now, if there is one thing Ben Roethlisberger knows it is Footbahlin, so their race is run, possibly for ever. (Definitely not still upset about the cost of living in Tom Brady’s shadow.) Meanwhile, the division’s three other franchises are thriving. The Baltimore Ravens soar above the AFC’s 7-6 dogfight while the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals are right in the mix thanks to their backup quarterbacks or backup backing up the backup’s backup in the Browns’ case. The No 1 seed is right in the Ravens grasp – only the second in franchise history if they clinch it – while their flourishing passing attack can keep it so against a Jacksonville Jaguars’ team nervous of ceding further ground at the top of the AFC South. Cleveland’s unlikely success with the 38-year-old Joe Flacco feels fragile but at 8-6, two wins from their final four fixtures (Bears, Texans, Jets, Bengals) should put them into the postseason. Incredibly, Flacco’s last dance is being run close by the house that Jake Browning built for narrative interest. Back-to-back wins for the Bengals have brought hope from the ruins of Joe Burrow’s early exit and with the offensively inert Vikings and Steelers up next, Browning could be the story of such an unbelievable year across the league. Pittsburgh are 7-6, too.
Falling: Houston Texans (7-6, currently No 8 in AFC)
The Houston Texans have been a delight in 2023. The underdog narrative of a perennially downtrodden team finding their feet never fails to capture hearts and minds. Their tale has been spun in overdrive as a first-year head coach and former player in DeMeco Ryans has brought success with a roster bejewelled by rookies. The Texans were dead last before pre-season in the betting odds to make the Super Bowl but are still on the playoff bubble and Ryans, rightly so, is favorite to be named coach of the year. However, defeat to the Jets has potentially brought their wonderful ride to a screeching halt. Another notch in the loss column when the AFC is so suffocatingly tight is painful enough but missing CJ Stroud and Nico Collins for at least this week’s meeting with the Titans could be too much to overcome with Tank Dell already out of the lineup. The quarterback’s motions in concussion protocol put Davis Mills in as the likely starter against Tennessee. Defeat may soon follow and a significant slip in the playoff race, will this team have enough fight left for a week 16 clash with Flacco’s Browns?
Race for No 1 pick
The Carolina Panthers can only improve after flatlining against the Saints but a trip to Atlanta with the Falcons playing to regain supremacy of the NFC South is only going to end one way. Nothing new there then but Zach Wilson provided a predictably completely unpredictable moment for the New York Jets by being fantastic against Houston. The comeback kid will even have raised a smile from Aaron Rodgers as they fly out of the race for the next highest selections. In the fight now for pick No 2 we have New England, Arizona and Washington who face Kansas City, San Francisco and the LA Rams respectively. The Chiefs are on the warpath, San Francisco are the best in the NFL and LA must win to stay relevant so, in this year of utter chaos, at least two of our best of the worst will surely win to put the loser in pole position. Who? Who knows?
