Last week’s Divisional Round bets started off brutally. Trevor Lawrence couldn’t find room to throw thanks to a battering Kansas City Chiefs pass rush. Isiah Pacheco was half the breakout star I’d hoped he’d be. The New York Giants’ passing game was butt.
Fortunately, we cleaned up Sunday’s games to remain profitable this postseason. Josh Allen didn’t run, Dak Prescott did and the late addition of a Samaje Perine bet slip on a snowy afternoon in Buffalo capped a perfect day of prop bets.
The trouble now is keeping that streak alive. Two dominant defenses square off in Philadelphia. Two MVP candidate quarterbacks will do battle in Kansas City. There’s little predictable about the two games that will decide who plays in Super Bowl 57.
Let’s see if we can find some value anyway.
Kenneth Gainwell OVER 10.5 rushing yards. I thought this number would be higher after he lit up the Giants in garbage time. 11 yards, even with something like a 25 percent snap share against the league’s second-best run defense, is extremely doable.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 47.5 rushing yards. The rookie runs hard and the Bengals have a relatively average run defense (14th in DVOA, ninth in yards allowed per carry). Pacheco has run for 50-plus yards in nine of his last 10 games.
Joe Burrow OVER 16.5 rushing yards. Wow, we’re really hitting the rushing overs this week. Burrow ran for 31 yards vs. the Bills and 46 the last time he saw the Chiefs. Kansas City ranked fifth-worst in the NFL when it came to QB rushing yards allowed this season. Given the recent push from the Chiefs’ defensive front, Burrow could be scrambling more than he’d anticipated.
Brandon Aiyuk OVER 45.5 receiving yards. The Eagles have the league’s best passing defense, but Aiyuk has hit this number in six of eight games with Brock Purdy behind center. With Philadelphia’s safeties likely to key in on the connection the rookie has with George Kittle, Aiyuk might have the space to his this over on a single catch — so pair this up with longest reception OVER 20.5 yards.
Travis Kelce OVER 78.5 receiving yards. The Bengals give up more than 57 yards per game to tight ends — sixth-worst in the NFL. Kelce averages better than 87 yards per playoff game in his career and that number expands to 108 since 2020. Yes, Cincinnati’s going to bracket him whenever possible. It still may not matter.
Noah Gray OVER 12.5 receiving yards. Cincinnati’s vulnerable against tight ends and not every target is gonna go to Kelce. Gray’s hit this number in nine of his last 11 games.
Last week: 5-3 (.625)
Regular season record: 83-40 (.675)
Postseason record: 9-6 (.600)
Season to date: 92-46 (.667)
My official leans (not plays) for the conference championships
Rough week for these plays, as Kadarius Toney and Hayden Hurst each hit their modest overs. Let’s see if we can learn from that.
- Kadarius Toney UNDER 36.5 receiving yards. Yeah I’ve learned nothing. His number is up from last week and he’s sprung for 37-plus yards only twice this season.
- Brock Purdy UNDER 8.5 rushing yards. He’s only gone over this total once in eight games as the team’s primary quarterback. While the Eagles have the pass rush to flush him from the pocket, they also have the horses to bring him down before he can scramble upfield for drive-sustaining gains. On the other hand, Philly has given up the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs this season, so into the leans pile it goes.
- George Kittle OVER 46.5 receiving yards. Brock Purdy loves his tight end and will likely target him often in the face of the Eagles’ pass rush. But Kittle’s targets don’t always translate to big yardage and a five-catch, 40-yard performance is very possible.
Last week: 1-3 (.250)
Regular season record: 42-17 (.712)
Postseason record: 4-4 (.500)
Season to date: 91-47 (.659)
