The first round of the 2024 NFL playoffs is over. The Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles were each exposed as frauds.
By Week 12, those three teams had a combined 26-7 record with their sights set on Super Bowl 58. None of them even took a step toward the big game; each lost by at least 16 points in their respective wild card matchups.
This wasn’t especially surprising. The Dolphins and Eagles each backed into the postseason. The Cowboys have made losing in the middle of January a rich franchise tradition. But their departures helped create a vacuum in the power rankings for rising teams like the Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers to fill.
Those peaking teams were still forced to wait in line behind the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, two dominant teams with nothing to play for in Week 18 and no opponent last weekend. But after them? Well, there’s a certain pecking order when it comes to Super Bowl contenders.
The teams that began their offseason at the first possible moment
The 2024 NFL offseason officially begins March 13. The 2024 NFL Draft begins April 25. That’s what these teams have to look forward to.
32. Carolina Panthers
31. New England Patriots
30. Washington Commanders
29. Los Angeles Chargers
28. Arizona Cardinals
27. Tennessee Titans
26. New York Giants
25. New York Jets
24. Atlanta Falcons
23. Las Vegas Raiders
22. Minnesota Vikings
21. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. Chicago Bears
19. Denver Broncos
18. Indianapolis Colts
17. New Orleans Saints
16. Cincinnati Bengals
15. Seattle Seahawks
The newly eliminated class
14. Philadelphia Eagles
Nick Sirianni has won 27 games over the last two seasons and fans still want him gone. Some of that is abject Philly-ness, but given the Eagles’ late-season collapse it’s at least somewhat justifiable.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
If this was the last we see of Mike Tomlin, it was a very Mike Tomlin finish; punching his way to pretty-goodness despite a reanimated corpse at quarterback.
12. Miami Dolphins
From Week 14 on, Tua Tagovailoa’s -0.007 expected points added (EPA) per play ranks 27th among all NFL starters in that span, behind Tyrod Taylor, Desmond Ridder, Aidan O’Connell and Jarrett Stidham. And now he’s due for a contract extension.
11. Cleveland Browns
Kevin Stefanski got to 11 wins with the following quarterbacks earning starts: Deshaun Watson, PJ Walker, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Joe Flacco and Jeff Driskel. It’s up to team owner Jimmy Haslam to acknowledge this accomplishment and stop siphoning rewards from his gas card.
10. Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott is 2-4 in the playoffs all time. The Cowboys have won 36 games the last three seasons but haven’t been to an NFC title game since 1996.
9. Los Angeles Rams
Thank you, Matthew Stafford, for delivering the only close game of wild card weekend; an extended slate designed solely to maximize the embarrassment of the NFC East.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week’s rank: 13
Baker Mayfield played terribly in Weeks 17 and 18 thanks to injury. It was fair to think he’d be hindered in the Bucs’ playoff debut, which came eight days after failing to score a touchdown against the Panthers. Nope. Mayfield had one of the best performances of his career, torching the Eagles’ beleagured secondary for 337 yards and three touchdowns on a turnover-free night.
7. Green Bay Packers
Last week’s rank: 11
Fans across Wisconsin watched with bated breath, anxiously waiting to see which version of Jordan Love they’d get; the overwhelmed first-year starter from the first nine weeks of the season, or the efficient playmaker who brought his team back from 3-6 and into the postseason.
They got the second guy.
6. Houston Texans
Last week’s rank: 8
CJ Stroud announced his arrival by staring down the NFL’s top-ranked defense and shredding it en route to a 45-14 win over the Browns. Stroud had 274 passing yards and three touchdowns in 3.5 quarters of work before Davis Mills took over. Even more impressive was a young defense that housed two pick-sixes and held Cleveland scoreless over the final 42 minutes.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Last week’s rank: 6
Patrick Mahomes is undefeated against the Buffalo Bills in the postseason, but both those matchups came at Arrowhead Stadium. Now he’ll have to wade through the broken tables and Fireball fumes outside Highmark Stadium to play in front of a rabid crowd. He’ll need Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce to rise up and shred a depleted Bills defense if it’s gonna be six straight AFC title games for the Chiefs.
4. Buffalo Bills
Last week’s rank: 5
The Steelers weren’t really a problem in the wild card round. Attrition, however, was. Terrel Bernard, Taron Johnson and Christian Benford all left Monday’s win with injuries of varying severity, further weakening an already depleted defense. Getting Rasul Douglas back in the lineup will help. Will it be enough to handle the Chiefs?
3. Detroit Lions
Last week’s rank: 3
Jared Goff’s redemption story added a new chapter with Detroit’s first playoff win in three decades. Not bad for the guy the Rams salary dumped to the Lions. The question now is whether a defense that gave up 425 yards last week can continue to slam shut like a bear trap in the red zone. Los Angeles had three drives breach the Lions’ 20-yard line Sunday; they failed to score a touchdown on all three.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Last week’s rank: 2
The 49ers ended the Packers’ season in two of Aaron Rodgers’ final three playoff runs in Green Bay. Can Jordan Love change their fate? Or will Christian McCaffrey continue to feast, especially against a perpetually middling run defense? Probably the latter, given San Francisco’s ability to pressure quarterbacks without having to send extra defenders.
1. Baltimore Ravens
Last week’s rank: 1
The pressure is on Lamar Jackson to prove he can thrive in the postseason. While he’s 1-3 with his season on the line, that doesn’t tell the full story. His last two playoff losses came with eight combined drops between them. Now he’s got Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr. and, maybe, a healthy and returning Mark Andrews in the lineup. Now he’s gotta handle a defense that recently embarrassed another, very different, AFC North quarterback.
