The path to the postseason isn’t hard to figure out for the Jacksonville Jaguars anymore.
While the Jaguars blew the doors off the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, they didn’t get much help elsewhere. The Houston Texans blew out the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts held off a second half surge from the Las Vegas Raiders.
It’s all pretty simple now: if the Jaguars beat the Titans next week in Nashville, they’ll be AFC South champions. If they lose, they’ll need some help to keep their season alive.
With only one weekend of regular season play left, here’s every postseason scenario for the Jaguars heading into Week 18:
No. 4 seed
The Jaguars have sat No. 4 in the playoff picture for a while and will stay in that spot if they win the AFC South. They can’t catch the Chiefs, so this scenario for this spot is as simple as it gets:
- Jaguars beat the Titans
And that’s all folks. The Jaguars would be AFC South champions and host the No. 5 seed, which was clinched by the Browns on Sunday.
No. 7 seed
If the Jaguars lose in Week 18, they will not be the AFC South champion. That title will instead go to the Colts or Texans, and Jacksonville will need a little help to sneak in as a wild card team. With the No. 5 and 6 seeds impossible for the Jaguars, the path to the last spot in the AFC looks like this:
- Titans beat Jaguars
- Ravens beat Steelers
- Raiders beat Broncos
At 9-8, the Jaguars would need to come out on top of a huge traffic jam for the No. 7 seed. That’d include the loser of the Colts vs. Texans game, and — in this case — the Steelers.
A quick explanation: Jacksonville has two wins against Indianapolis, one against Houston, and one against Pittsburgh. All those head-to-head tiebreaker wins put the Jaguars on top in this scenario. But if the Broncos jump into the mix, the head-to-head tiebreaker no longer applies and it’d skip to others that Jacksonville would lose.
Eliminated
The Jaguars will finish with a winning record, but there’s a chance another 9-8 season won’t be enough. If this comes to fruition, Jacksonville would be left out:
- Titans beat Jaguars
- Steelers beat Ravens
or
- Titans beat Jaguars
- Broncos beat Raiders
If Jacksonville drops to 9-8, it can’t afford to have the Steelers be the seventh AFC team to reach double-digit wins. It also can’t have the Broncos force the logjam for the No. 7 seed to move past the head-to-head tiebreaker.
