We’re down to the NFL’s Final Four, which includes three teams that won on the road with walk-off field goals in the Divisional Round. With the Super Bowl at stake, we take a prop bet for each team (one gets two) as two teams prepare to have their Super Bowl dream come true.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Jan. 28 at 6:20 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.
No Average Joe
Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon doesn’t get the same amount of credit that teammates Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase get for the success of the Cincinnati offense, but in many ways, Mixon is the straw that stirs the drink. In the Bengals offense, Mixon has been critical to controlling game flow and keeping pressure off Burrow. If Mixon struggles, Burrow has to pass too often and his weak O-line is exposed. Mixon’s Over/Under is very reasonable (15.5 rushing attempts at -106 Over, -122 Under). If the Bengals are going to win, it will require a heavy dose of Mixon to keep the Chiefs’ potent offense on the sideline. Take the Over (-106).
What the Helaire’s Going On Out There?
Kansas City Chiefs running Clyde Edwards-Helaire came back last week after missing three games and, while he only had seven carries, he broke off one big run to finish with 60 rushing yards. The problem is that during his injury, Jerick McKinnon has been an explosive replacement and has earned the opportunity to be the primary back – both as a runner and receiver. CEH has a modest Over/Under (37.5 rushing yards at -115 Over, -112 Under). But, the question facing Andy Reid is whether to cut into the time with the guy who has the hot hand (McKinnon). If the Chiefs are ahead and trying to grind down the clock, go with the team’s best between-the-tackles power runner (Darrel Williams). If Edwards-Helaire ends up with only seven carries again this week, he will need to pop another big run to hit that number. He may not get the opportunities he needs. Take the Under (-115).
Kelce Grammar
Among the prop bets available to bettors is the straightforward questions, “Is Player X going to score a touchdown?” It’s pretty simple. He does or he doesn’t. Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has a fairly reasonable number to score (-125 for an anytime touchdown). Kelce has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last five games, and the Chiefs design packages specifically to get him the ball near the goal line. If the expectation of a high-scoring game happens, it would be hard to imagine the Chiefs scoring three or four touchdowns and Kelce not getting his piece of the pie. Kelce scores (-125).
Green Akers
Los Angeles Rams RB Cam Akers has made a miraculous return from an Achilles injury suffered last summer and has taken over the run game in the postseason, which explains why his Over/Under is so high (17.5 rushing attempts at -105 Over, -123 Under). The Rams offense has force-fed Akers in their playoff run – 41 carries in two games. But, he has produced just 2.5 yards a carry, including just 48 yards on 24 carries last week when the Rams tried to milk a big lead vs. a tough run defense. Against a San Francisco 49ers team that has momentum and has beaten the Rams six straight times, running Akers too often if he keeps producing just a couple of yards won’t be tolerated for long if it leaves the offense in bad down-and-distance situations. Unless the Rams are up by 14 or more, this is a big number to try to hit. Take the Under (-123).
I’ll Buy a Vowel, Pat
There are some bets that you make based on the defense a team is facing. Such is the case for 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk. He isn’t viewed as a focus of the 49ers offense, but he will likely be on the field a lot in the overall plan to prevent Jimmy Garoppolo from screwing things up for the Niners. The Rams are going to be coming after Jimmy G and Juszczyk will likely be chipping defenders or pass blocking in the backfield. He has a minuscule Over/Under (1.5 receptions at +112 Over, -145 Under). He has two or more receptions in 10 of 19 games he has played, and Garoppolo knows that when he needs a check-down target, his man Kyle will be in the flat likely unguarded. It isn’t sexy pick, but one that should hit – despite the number saying it won’t. Take the Over (+112).
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