The 2023 NFL season is inching closer and closer to December football, the crunch time of crunch times for teams trying to contend for the playoffs.
However, it’s also the time where struggling coaches try to keep their seats cool enough to still have one for 2024.
Of these 13 coaches, which ones should be feeling the heat the most right now for how their teams are playing? Context is key, as some of these coaches are on worse teams but have more time to fix them.
In other situations, some coaches’ fates might already be set, while others may be coaching for their jobs.
Let’s break down how all of this shakes out on the NFL Panic Meter: head coach job security edition.
Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Gannon
The Cardinals are 2-8 on the season, but Gannon has kept his team competitive throughout a difficult schedule with a team that is clearly being rebuilden. Getting quarterback Kyler Murray back should produce more wins, even Arizona feels destined for a losing record.
Gannon’s seat should be pretty comfortable for how he’s gotten Arizona to contend in a transitional year. However, the pressure will increase next year, whether they choose to stick with Murray or draft a new quarterback next April. Perhaps that competitive fire will turn into more wins in 2024.
We feel pretty confident Gannon will be the guy leading that charge unless Cardinals ownership has a specific candidate in mind it desperately wants.
PANIC METER: 5%
Atlanta Falcons: Arthur Smith
Smith is a bit like Gannon in that he did a commendable job keeping a rebuilding team competitive in the first two years of his tenure. However, 2023 was supposed to be the year the Falcons jumped back into contention, and it hasn’t necessarily happened yet (sans for a terrible NFC South).
The Falcons could still win the division and spray the fire extinguisher all over Smith’s seat, but he’s going to be feeling a certain degree of heat until his offense shows the fiery explosiveness that it’s capable of with this personnel grouping as it is.
He’s got a chance to prove his worth for 2024, and team owner Arthur Blank might give him another year even if he misses the playoffs. However, a 4-6 Falcons team that’s not scoring enough points has Smith’s job in question.
PANIC METER: 55%
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott
The Bills just fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who was primed before the season to be the next Buffalo coordinator to land a head coaching job. That does not bode well for McDermott, who is in the midst of a 5-5 season with a Super Bowl contender.
McDermott has the best stretch in recent Bills history to lean on to support him keeping his job past this season, and the team still has Josh Allen at quarterback to help win games and make the playoffs.
However, would Buffalo want an offensive-minded coach to lead its franchise if McDermott misses the playoffs this year? We’re not sure how likely this is given McDermott’s clear success as a head coach, but the fact that we’re even asking this question means that there’s some warmth here.
PANIC METER: 15%
Carolina Panthers: Frank Reich
Reich is by all accounts a smart offensive mind and a stand-up guy who is well-liked around the NFL. However, his Panthers are in the midst of a disastrous season, and he made a very knee-jerk decision this week to take back the play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Thomas Brown after he assigned them to Brown earlier this season.
Between this, the lack of meaningful progress from rookie quarterback Bryce Young and Reich subtly hinting at a rift between him and ownership, it sure feels right now like this could be a one-and-done situation for the Panthers.
Unless the Panthers start winning games, it feels like Reich is on the hot seat for a situation not entirely in his control. We’ll see how this goes, but things are not trending in the right direction in Charlotte.
PANIC METER: 65%
Chicago Bears: Matt Eberflus
The Bears have been bad for the entirety of Eberflus’ tenure, which has a lot to do with a lot of things. You could point to some baffling front office moves, the stunted development of Justin Fields, the inability to field a competent defense, the abysmal offensive line play, you name it.
Eberflus and Fields will likely the scapegoats by the end of the year, as it feels incredibly likely that neither is with this franchise for the 2024 season.
It may just be a matter of time specifically for Eberflus, whose seat feels like it’s so hot that it’s a genuine fire hazard. We’re expecting big changes in Chicago, and a head coaching change is atop the list.
PANIC METER: 95%
Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce
Pierce has been impressive in his interim stint coaching the Raiders, as the team just looks like it’s playing a different style of football since coach Josh McDaniels was fired earlier this season.
He’ll have to do much more to really cement his future in Las Vegas, but it’s very possible that ownership may be willing to give him a legitimate shot at the job with more inspired by play a Raiders team that looked like a bust while McDaniels was calling the shots.
Saying Pierce’s seat is warm is just the reality of being an interim coach, but we feel like he’ll continue to cool it down by getting wins and good play. He can feel a little bit better about his job prospects after this solid start.
PANIC METER: 75%
Los Angeles Chargers: Brandon Staley
Staley has one of the better rosters in the NFL and easily one of its best quarterbacks in Justin Herbert, but it feels like he’s nearing the end of his tenure in Los Angeles.
The Chargers are fighting through injuries, but the team should be better than where they are right now. Some felt Los Angeles would be a Super Bowl team this season, but they’ll be fortunate to even make the Wild Card round at this point. That falls on Staley, a bright defensive mind who hasn’t delivered.
We’re guessing the Chargers will be looking for an offensive-minded coach in the offseason unless Staley is able to help an uninspiring 4-5 team find some life. If the expectations weren’t so high for the Chargers, Staley could maybe get more time to fix things. However, Herbert is already out of his rookie contract phase, and Los Angeles needs a contender during his prime.
PANIC METER: 70%
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick
If anyone tells you they for sure know what’s going to happen between Belichick and the Patriots, they’re not being honest.
Belichick’s job status feels like the biggest mystery in the NFL right now, as arguably the greatest coach in league history sits with a dismal 2-8 squad that may bench its 2021 first-round quarterback.
The Patriots firing Belichick would be the headline of the century up in Foxboro, and we’re really not sure if Robert Kraft could actually bring himself to fire the guy who won him six Super Bowls and may well get part of the stadium named after him one day.
However, the Patriots aren’t used to losing like this, and it feels like anything is possible with Belichick’s future. He could keep his job, he could retire, he could get traded to another franchise, he could get the boot.
The fact that we can’t say with certainty it’s the first option makes the others feel very realistic right now.
PANIC METER: 70%
New Orleans Saints: Dennis Allen
Allen has the fortune of coaching in the awful NFC South. Otherwise, another mediocre season for the Saints would have his seat hotter.
However, it’s always possible New Orleans could fizzle out and find the defensive-minded coach looking for other options next season. While New Orleans’ defense is as sharp as it’s been in years, its offense inspires no confidence in matching the other side of the ball.
Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael feels like the more likely candidate to get fired, as he’s been in his job since 2009 and is a holdover from the Sean Payton era of Saints football.
However, the defensive success may buy Allen another year in the Big Easy.
PANIC METER: 35%
New York Giants: Brian Daboll
We do not think the Giants are going to fire Daboll, but how terrible things have gotten in New York makes us still ask the question.
Daboll’s Giants are very bad this year, but some of that could be owed to the declining play and injury luck of quarterback Daniel Jones and the team’s shaky defense. In other words, there are places to assign blame.
Daboll’s stellar 2022 season will buy him time for 2024, but this is not the kind of year Giants fans were expecting after winning a road playoff game this past January. He’ll need a strong comeback season to keep the seat cool.
PANIC METER: 10%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles
Bowles is one of the best defensive minds in the game, but his Buccaneers are in free fall after such an inspiring start to the 2023 season.
Tampa Bay has gotten solid play from quarterback Baker Mayfield, but that hasn’t been enough to fight off a losing record. The team did beat the Tennessee Titans this past Sunday, but they’ll need more of that to have a chance at winning the very winnable NFC South.
If Bowles misses the playoffs in the team’s first post-Tom Brady year, it shouldn’t in theory be the end of the world. However, the NFL is a fickle, forgetful league, and Tampa Bay could still make a change if it sees fit.
PANIC METER: 30%
Tennessee Titans: Mike Vrabel
It feels laughable that the Titans would even consider firing Vrabel, easily the best coach in Tennessee history since Jeff Fisher.
This probably won’t (and absolutely shouldn’t) happen, but we do wonder how the lingering effects of this franchise trading A.J. Brown could play out. Vrabel was hypothetically the coach during that transaction, and if his team keeps losing, he could ultimately feel the weight of ownership frustration.
He wouldn’t be out of work long, but that franchise-altering transaction isn’t going to leave the memories of Titandom anytime soon. Winning cures all, and Vrabel will need to win in 2024 to distance himself from the past.
PANIC METER: 15%
Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera
Rivera is stuck in a crummy situation of coaching for a franchise with new ownership that is almost assuredly going to make a change after this year.
He’s a great coach who has won a lot of games, but he’s also just not been quite the same in Washington as he was in Carolina. We could see him landing a third gig somewhere, but the Commanders feel destined to part ways with him in January.
The team might just promote Eric Bieniemy to keep him running the offense, if we’re being honest. Either way, we’re expecting Rivera gets let go.
PANIC METER: 95%
