There’s a very real possibility a quarterback wins this award. I have to add that caveat before we get into the favorites, sleepers and long shots for 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, because only one quarterback is listed below.
The reason for that is because quarterbacks don’t have top-five odds to be considered favorites, but they aren’t exactly sleepers either. Many of them top the list of MVP favorites. But it is noteworthy that prior to the drought of the last three years, QBs had won OPOY in eight of the previous 12 years. So as much as we think about this award as reserved for running backs and wide receivers, that’s not necessarily true.
If it does go to a running back or wide out, though, these are some of the names to look for in 2022. Odds are courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook.
Favorites
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams +900
Why he will win: Kupp simply repeats what he did in 2021 when he won the award by notching the first receiving triple crown since 2005.
Why he won’t win: The Rams regress from what was potentially their peak last season, and Kupp isn’t nearly as effective as the focal point of defenses.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts +900
Why he will win: The 23-year-old posts another 1,800-yard, 15-plus touchdown season, and no receivers have a historically great year.
Why he won’t win: The Colts reduce his workload to keep him fresh for the playoffs, and his production drops enough to allow top receivers to get more consideration.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans +1200
Why he will win: He returns to his pre-injury form of 2021 and 2020 and carries an underwhelming Titans offense to another winning season.
Why he won’t win: Teams are able to sell out to stop Henry even more than in the past, and his production slips as a result.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers +1200
Why he will win: Samuels’ do-it-all ability is utilized to another level, and he approaches 2,000 yards in total offense and 20 touchdowns.
Why he won’t win: The Niners cut back on using him as a runner, and Brandon Aiyuk gets a larger target share in the passing game.
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders +1300
Why he will win: He becomes Derek Carr’s go-to guy in the way he was for Aaron Rodgers and has a career season in a heavier passing attack.
Why he won’t win: His presence creates more opportunities for Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, and they take away from his league-leading potential.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings +1500
Why he will win: Jefferson outdoes his mind-boggling production of the previous season, yet again, to post Cooper Kupp-like numbers.
Why he won’t win: Adam Thielen, Irv Smith Jr. and Dalvin Cook stay healthy, so the Vikings spread the ball around a little more.
Sleepers
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals +3000
Why he will win: His rookie season was just a taste of what’s to come, and Chase kicks it up a notch with some experience under his belt.
Why he won’t win: Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are also really good receivers who need to eat in the passing game, so Chase doesn’t receive the same workload as other top receivers.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs +4000
Why he will win: With Tyreek Hill gone, Patrick Mahomes leans on Kelce more than ever, leading to one of the greatest tight end seasons ever.
Why he won’t win: With Hill gone, defenses only need to worry about Kelce, and the 32-year-old struggles to find room to operate.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles +4000
Why he will win: He maximizes the talent around him to pass for over 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns and run for another 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Why he won’t win: He struggles to consistently hit his receivers and relies on his legs far too much.
Long shots
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants +5000
Why he will win: New York finally turns the ship around on the back of Barkley, who is rejuvenated and finally back to his form of 2018-19.
Why he won’t win: The Giants offensive line continues to struggle and create lanes, and the passing game fails to stretch defenses out.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers +6000
Why he will win: He becomes one of the more lethal dual-threat running backs, becoming one of Aaron Rodgers favorite targets in the passing game with Davante Adams gone.
Why he won’t win: AJ Dillon gets enough workload on rushing and passing downs to keep Jones’ production down in both areas.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers +8000
Why he will win: Harris receives the same 300-carry, 70-catch workload of a season ago, only he’s more productive on those touches because of marginal improvements in the passing game.
Why he won’t win: The passing game isn’t improved under Mitchell Trubisky, and teams load up the box to stop Harris.
The field
