The Jacksonville Jaguars broke the bank in order to ink their new wide receiver Christian Kirk. He signed a four-year, $72 million deal (that could max out at $84 million) with $37 million fully guaranteed.
Many media outlets including NFL Network questioned the hefty price the Jaguars paid for the former Arizona Cardinals receiver. Particularly, their analytics expert, Cynthia Frelund, listed Kirk’s addition to Jacksonville as one of her head-scratchers from the 2022 NFL free agency period.
This one is all about return on investment. Looking at that hefty price tag, the Jaguars clearly have a LOT of faith that Kirk will produce at a high level. On the plus side, NGS shows that his 9.6 yards per target when aligned in the slot last season ranked second-best in the NFL among receivers with at least 50 slot targets. (Only Cooper Kupp had a higher figure at 11.7 yards per target.) That was a big uptick for Kirk, who averaged 6.3 yards per target on 60 total slot targets in 2019 and 2020. For the kind of money he’s being paid, though, you’d assume Kirk would be able to produce on the outside, as well. But computer vision shows that his outside route production has been less consistent, in large part because his speed drops off more on outside routes, so defenders have extra time to pursue him.
She makes a convincing argument of why Kirk’s addition is a head-scratcher. The Jaguars definitely overpaid for the former Cardinals receiver, but that’s usually how it works in free agency for rebuilding franchises. However, it’s doubtful any other team offered Kirk anywhere near that kind of money.
His contract also made him a top-10 paid wide receiver in average annual value. That’s a big chunk of change for another team’s No. 2-3 option.
The Jaguars also entered the offseason needing a true WR1 outside, and Kirk didn’t alleviate that need because most of his production came from the slot as Frelund pointed out.
But Jacksonville needed a massive overhaul in its wide receiver room after all the dropped passes that plagued quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season. Kirk is a nice WR2 that Lawrence will appreciate.
Ultimately, I agree with Frelund because the Jaguars’ more pressing need at receiver was outside and Kirk’s large contract makes the signing a head-scratcher.
