For the rest of the NFL season, BetFTW will take a look at the 2022 MVP race, breaking down the contenders and their most recent performances. Check back each Tuesday for a look at how odds have changed and to get an idea of how oddsmakers see things shaping up. Preseason odds can be found here.
With Week 14 in the books, now is as good a time as any to start looking at MVP odds.
The favorites entering the year — Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes — are still among the favorites with four weeks left to play. But some unlikely names have emerged too, making the likelihood of a first-time recipient very high.
These are the leaders, with odds from BetMGM.
5
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (+5000)
Pass Yds: 3,004 Cmp%: 65.5 TD: 22 Int: 5
Rush Yds: 63 TD: 0
Tagovailoa is just a few short weeks removed from +650 MVP odds, which were still just fourth at the time but at least gave him an outside shot at taking over the lead. But a couple really bad starts later, and he’s now a very distant fifth.
Against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night, Tagovailoa completed just 35% of his passes while averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt — both season-lows. That followed a game against the San Francisco 49ers last week where he had set his previous season-low of 54% passing while matching his season-high of two interceptions. Naturally, Miami lost both games.
I wouldn’t say Tagovailoa’s chances to turn things around and win the MVP are completely dead. But he’ll definitely need some of the players ahead of him to have similarly bad stretches for it to happen.
4
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (+1800)
Pass Yds: 3,553 Cmp%: 63.8 TD: 26 Int: 11
Rush Yds: 628 TD: 6
Allen, the MVP favorite entering the season, had his bad stretch of play already and doesn’t seem to be completely on the other side — though he’s cut back on the turnovers the last two weeks. On Sunday, he amassed just 147 yards on 59% passing, but it was against a good Jets defense that picked him off twice the first time they played.
This time around, Allen didn’t get picked, and more importantly, he got the win. It’s the Bills’ fourth straight, giving them some breathing room in the AFC East, but that doesn’t exactly help Allen’s MVP case.
His numbers are beginning to pale in comparison to some of the leaders in this race, so if Allen is going to give himself a better shot to win MVP, he might need more of the efficient 300-yard, multi-TD games he had earlier in the season.
3
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow (+700)
Pass Yds: 3,685 Cmp%: 68.1 TD: 27 Int: 9
Rush Yds: 234 TD: 5
Burrow is the latest entry into the top-three of MVP candidates after keeping the Bengals afloat through injuries with his phenomenal play. All the Bengals did after losing Ja’Marr Chase to injury after Week 7 was go 5-1. And they just avenged that one loss to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday in what was maybe Burrow’s worst game in that stretch — 18-of-33, 239 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception.
Not bad, right? Maybe for a lot of other quarterbacks. But for Burrow, it’s actually below average compared to what he’s been able to do lately. The 54 completion percentage was his lowest of the season.
With Chase and Joe Mixon back, the sky is the limit for what Burrow and this offense can accomplish.
2
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (+200)
Pass Yds: 4,160 Cmp%: 65.8 TD: 33 Int: 11
Rush Yds: 280 TD: 2
The Chiefs nearly blew what was supposed to be an easy win over the Denver Broncos on Sunday, but maybe that was just an excuse for Mahomes to accumulate more stats.
Some of us (or just me?) picked Mahomes to fall under the betting line for his passing yards this week because this game wasn’t supposed to be competitive, limiting his need to pass much against a defense that’s actually pretty solid to begin with. Instead, he tied his third-highest attempts of the season and racked up 352 yards and three touchdowns.
Mahomes’ three interceptions on Sunday don’t help his MVP case, but there’s plenty of good to offset those. Not the least of which are his league-leading passing yards and touchdowns.
1
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (-165)
Pass Yds: 3,157 Cmp%: 68.0 TD: 22 Int: 3
Rush Yds: 686 TD: 10
What Hurts lacks in passing yards and touchdowns compared to some of his fellow MVP candidates, he makes up for in efficiency and incredible rushing stats to match his great passing numbers.
There was no better example of how Hurts can beat you with both than Sunday’s game against the New York Giants. Hurts passed for 217 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions, completing nearly 68% of his 31 attempts. And he added 77 yards and another touchdown on the ground.
It’s really a situation where you have to choose your poison with Hurts and he’s become equally adept at beating you either way. Last week, he threw for 380 yards against the Titans. The week before that, he rushed for 157 yards on the Packers. It’s helped the Eagles get to an NFL-leading 12-1 record. And that’s why he’s the MVP favorite.
