The 2023 NFL Mock Draft 4.0 was just released, it's the first mock since Round 1’s order was finalized following the Chiefs’ coronation in Super Bowl LVII. There are 31 first-round picks (the Dolphins forfeited their first pick following an investigation into their improper communications with Tom Brady and Sean Payton).
Kevin Hanson’s mock features 14 defensive players and five offensive linemen. That leaves 12 players – four quarterbacks, four wide receivers, three tight ends and one running back – who might be worth considering when fantasy football drafts come rolling around.
Fantasy Football players need to get familiar with these draft prospects no matter which teams draft them, but for this exercise, we’ll take a look at the fantasy impact assuming this is the way the draft pans out.
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2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Davis Mills flashed potential for Houston, but it’s hard to imagine Young wouldn’t be the Texans’ Day 1 starter. The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner has great pocket awareness. His ability to move around and extend plays would be critical for a team that doesn’t have a lot of playmakers. And with two first-round picks, if the Texans add a dynamic receiver with the 12th pick (spoiler alert!), then Young could have a fantasy-relevant rookie campaign.
4. Indianapolis Colts: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
The Colts hired Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to be their next head coach based on his success with not one but two young quarterbacks. With the Chargers in 2020, Steichen was the offensive coordinator when rookie Justin Herbert passed for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns. He joined the Eagles as OC in 2021, Jalen Hurts’s sophomore season and first as the full-time starter. Hurts had the ninth-most fantasy points among QBs that season and then in 2022 he rose to QB3, with the most fantasy points per game among QBs. Stroud may not have the supporting cast in Indianapolis to approach those numbers, but it’s clear Steichen will put him in position to be productive.
9. Carolina Panthers: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Proceed at your own risk with Levis, who is a good prospect on paper but by no means a can’t-miss prospect. Levis will need solid coaching. New Panthers head coach Frank Reich had a great reputation with quarterbacks, but his last three seasons with the Colts set him back a notch. Carolina doesn’t have a lot of weapons on offense, so it would be hard to think Levis will be fantasy relevant as a rookie in Charlotte.
12. Houston Texans (via CLE): Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Addison led the nation with 17 TD receptions as a sophomore at Pitt, then transferred to USC and was Caleb Williams’s favorite receiver last season. A dynamic playmaker, Addison would have the chance to come in and quickly emerge as rookie Bryce Young’s favorite receiver.
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15. Green Bay Packers: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
When will teams learn that drafting a tight end in the first round – especially in the first half of the first round – is a losing proposition? Anyway, the top rookie fantasy tight end last season was Tennessee’s Chigoziem Okonkwu, and he was a fourth-round pick who finished as the TE25. Mayer has a ton of potential to be a big-play tight end, but – especially with the chance that Aaron Rodgers won’t be in Green Bay next season – it’s hard to have great expectations for Mayer in this spot.
16. Washington Commanders: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Hanson has the Commanders taking Richardson here because he compares the Florida QB to Cam Newton, who was the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year in current Washington head coach Ron Rivera’s first season in Carolina. But Hanson also reminds us that Rivera is on record saying 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell is likely the No. 1 QB heading into the preseason. We’ll see. With new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and two good young receivers in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, this could be an interesting spot for a promising young QB. But given this franchise’s struggles on and off the field, they’ll have to prove it before you invest in them.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
On paper, this pick has great fantasy potential. There’s a good chance veteran Keenan Allen will be a cap casualty; Smith-Njigba is a strong route runner who can become Justin Herbert’s new favorite receiver, cleaning up underneath while Mike Williams stretches the field. The only concern would be possible negative juju of adding a receiver who missed much of 2022 with a hamstring injury to a Chargers receiving corps that was already plagued by various injuries throughout last season.
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22. Baltimore Ravens: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Johnston is a good fit for the Ravens but this would be a lousy scenario for fantasy enthusiasts. Johnston, who averaged 19.0 yards per catch in his three seasons at TCU, is a big-play threat whose ability to stretch the field would lighten the box for Baltimore’s run-oriented offense to thrive. Because it’s a run-oriented attack, however, Johnston might not get enough chances to really become a fantasy stud. If he were drafted by a more pass-heavy offense, Johnston could provide much greater fantasy value. (And here’s the good news: Johnston will very likely be drafted well before Baltimore’s pick, so I do think he’ll go to a team that can better take advantage of his ability.)
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Evan Engram was a first-round bust with the Giants, and then he caught 73 passes for 766 yards and four TDs last season with Jacksonville. Engram is a free agent, so there is an obvious void to fill if he leaves. Kincaid might not match Engram’s numbers, but Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is the kind of improvisational passer who will always rely on his tight end.
25. New York Giants: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
The 2022 Biletnikoff Award winner would be a perfect fit with the Giants, a team desperate for receivers with offensive coaches on staff to take advantage of his talent. If the Giants manage to re-sign Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley, then Hyatt’s big-play ability would be magnified as defenses focus their attention on Barkley.
