NFL Mock Draft 2024: How Free Agency Affects First-Round Picks

The NFL’s early negotiation period is in full swing, as free agents have already started agreeing to terms on contracts with their new teams that can become official starting Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET.

As usual, the first wave of big moves can have a massive impact on the draft landscape, as many teams have already been able to fill some of their biggest needs with marquee veterans on the open market.

We’ve already seen a couple of key quarterback dominoes fall, and the importance of the position could lead to an early run on this year’s top prospects in the draft, as well as movement later in the first round from teams trying to lock in that all-important fifth-year option on rookie contracts.

As the free agency frenzy continues, here’s a fresh look at how the first round of this year’s draft could turn out, complete with a few projected trades that could shake things up even further:

*denotes projected trade

1. Chicago Bears (from CAR)

QB Caleb Williams, USC

This feels more like a foregone conclusion with each day that we draw closer to draft weekend. Even though the trade market for Justin Fields appears to have dried up at light speed, it won’t keep the Bears from changing their minds if they’re already settled on Williams as their new franchise quarterback.

2. Washington Commanders

QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

The Commanders have a fantastic problem on their hands, having to choose between Daniels and Drake Maye. They really can’t go wrong in terms of talent and upside, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Daniels’s game-breaking speed and big-play ability as a runner tipped the scales in his favor.

3. New England Patriots

QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

Maye showed off his competitive nature at the combine in Indianapolis.

Ken Ruinard/USA TODAY Sports

This is the rare year where taking the third-best quarterback off the board at this spot is anything but a consolation prize. After trading away Mac Jones for the draft-pick equivalent of a room-temperature lobster roll, and bringing back veteran Jacoby Brissett on a one-year deal, Maye becomes the new quarterback of the future in New England.

4. Arizona Cardinals

WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

This has to be the dream scenario for the Cards, landing the best player in the entire draft (regardless of position), and filling one of the biggest needs on their roster. It’s unfair to compare Harrison to his Hall of Fame dad, but he’s exactly the kind of blue-chip target Kyler Murray needs to bring Arizona’s passing game back to life.

5. Minnesota Vikings (from LAC)*

QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

After losing Kirk Cousins in free agency, the Vikings are the prime candidate to make a big move up the board for the next-best quarterback. McCarthy’s stock is on the rise, but while he’s shown flashes of potential, there’s some boom-or-bust to his projection. Even if this trade takes next year’s first-round pick, the 2025 QB class looks to be much weaker, and Sam Darnold’s one-year deal gives Minnesota a short-term placeholder that can allow McCarthy to come along slowly.

6. New York Giants

WR Malik Nabers, LSU

The Giants might be tempted if one of the top quarterbacks falls to them here, but that’s not likely. Instead, New York gets to choose between two elite receiver prospects: While Rome Odunze has more size (6'3", 212 pounds) and physicality, the explosiveness and big-play ability Nabers (6'0", 200 pounds) brings to the table might be too tempting.

7. Chicago Bears (from TEN)*

WR Rome Odunze, Washington

Odunze led the nation in receiving yards in 2023.

Steven Bisig/USA TODAY Sports

If the Bears are sitting at No. 9 and hoping one of the top three receivers falls into their lap, they’re going to be sorely disappointed when another team jumps ahead of them to ensure that doesn’t happen. Sending the Titans a third-round pick would be more than worth it to land a polished and complete receiver like Odunze, instead of being forced to move down and regroup if he’s off the board.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama

After landing a proven starting quarterback in Cousins, the Falcons are free to use this pick to fill their biggest need on the other side of the ball. Atlanta desperately needs a true impact player coming off the edge, and Turner has the athleticism and explosiveness to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks for years to come.

9. Tennessee Titans (from CHI)*

OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame

Even though it might be tempting for the Titans to stay at their original spot and take Odunze themselves, they need to rebuild the offensive line before worrying about weapons for Will Levis. Moving down a couple of spots, adding another Day 2 pick and still landing a franchise left tackle in Alt would be a huge win for Tennessee.

10. New York Jets

OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State

If the Jets want to avoid another serious injury to Aaron Rodgers, they need to make some massive upgrades to the offensive line, particularly at tackle. Fuaga was dominant on the right side for the Beavers last season, and he’d bring a punishing style of play to New York that would set the tone for the entire offense in the trenches.

11. Los Angeles Chargers (from MIN)*

TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

After dropping down out of the top 10 and picking up an extra first-round pick next year, the Chargers have plenty of options to match need with value here. Value should always take priority, though, and Bowers is one of the true elite prospects in this draft. This mismatch machine and after-the-catch monster would be Justin Herbert’s new best friend.

12. Dallas Cowboys (from DEN)*

OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State

It looks like the Tyron Smith era is over in Dallas, which means it’s time for the Cowboys to find a new blind-side protector for Dak Prescott. Even in a fairly deep offensive tackle class, the Cowboys might be tempted to make a bold move up if a high-upside prospect like Fashanu is still on the board here. It probably costs them at least a second-round pick, but the potential at a premium position is worth it.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo

Mitchell is Toledo's all-time leader in pass breakups, with 46 across his career.

Lon Horwedel/USA TODAY Sports

After watching four quarterbacks go in the top five picks, the Raiders are better off going elsewhere with their top pick instead of reaching for the next-best passer on the board. Mitchell already had fantastic film and production, but he then followed it up with dominant performances at the Senior Bowl and the NFL Scouting Combine, making him worthy of being the first corner selected.

14. New Orleans Saints

OT Amarius Mims, Georgia

Derek Carr struggled to live up to his lofty pay grade last season, but it’s hard to blame him considering the play of New Orleans’s offensive line. The upgrades need to start at left tackle, where Trevor Penning has struggled, and this class should give the Saints plenty of strong options here. Mims doesn’t have a ton of snaps under his belt, but the rare physical tools give him limitless upside.

15. Indianapolis Colts

Edge Jared Verse, Florida State

After re-signing Michael Pittman Jr. to a long-term extension, the Colts can spend this pick on an edge rusher who can have an immediate impact. Verse is one of the most polished and pro-ready prospects in the entire draft, and his complete skill set will make him a dominant force against both the run and pass at the next level.

16. Seattle Seahawks

OL Troy Fautanu, Washington

This fit just makes too much sense. Even though Fautanu is capable of staying at left tackle in the NFL, he might be even more dominant if he slides inside to guard, where the Seahawks have a massive need. An impressive athlete with a stellar blend of agility and strength, Fautanu has All-Pro potential as a rookie.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama

The Jaguars’ early moves in free agency have bolstered the supporting cast around Trevor Lawrence on offense, which could allow them to spend this pick on another young corner to pair with Tyson Campbell. Arnold is a well-rounded defender with the smarts, instincts, and physical traits to be a shutdown presence on the outside.

18. Cincinnati Bengals

OT JC Latham, Alabama

I wouldn’t count out a defensive lineman here, but the Bengals’ primary focus needs to be protecting Joe Burrow, and that means dipping into this year’s elite offensive line class. Latham has rare movement skills for his massive frame (6'6", 342 pounds), and his experience at right tackle would make him the ideal upgrade over Jonah Williams.

19. Los Angeles Rams

Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA

Latu medically retired  after a preseason neck injury in 2020 before coming back two years later.

Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Donald is still a dominant force along the interior, but the Rams sorely miss the impact that players like Von Miller and Leonard Floyd brought off the edge. Latu comes with some medical concerns, but when he’s fully healthy, he’s proven to be one of the most polished and dominant edge rushers in the country.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

OL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon

The release of veteran Mason Cole made it obvious how much the Steelers need to upgrade at center, and this scenario gives them the perfect opportunity to do just that. Powers-Johnson is the best prospect at the position in this year’s class, and he’s a plug-and-play starter who’s easily worth a top-20 selection.

21. Miami Dolphins

DL Byron Murphy II, Texas

After letting Christian Wilkins walk in free agency, the Dolphins have a gaping hole at the heart of their defensive front, and they need a player with similar explosiveness and athleticism to fill the void. Murphy may be undersized for the position (6'0 1/2", 297 pounds), but he’s got the burst and quickness to make the splash plays Wilkins was known for providing.

22. Philadelphia Eagles

Edge Chop Robinson, Penn State

The youth movement is underway for the Philly defense, and it should continue with this pick. Much like recent first-round pick Nolan Smith, Robinson has rare explosiveness off the edge, even if he gives up some power and run-stopping ability. There’s some boom-or-bust here, but the upside might be too much for the Eagles to pass up.

23. Houston Texans (from CLE)

CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

An explosive interior defender is also a strong possibility here, but McKinstry is another fit that just makes too much sense. DeMeco Ryans already has plenty of key players on the roster from his alma mater, and McKinstry’s skill set would be a fantastic fit in his defense opposite Derek Stingley Jr. on the outside.

24. Denver Broncos (from DAL)*

QB Bo Nix, Oregon

Nix had his Pro Day at Oregon on Tuesday.

Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard/USA TODAY Network

After trading back and recouping some much-needed draft capital (man, that Russell Wilson trade was rough), the Broncos are still able to land their quarterback of the future. Nix may not have the upside of the top-tier passers in this year’s class, but his combination of experience, accuracy and efficiency will check the most important boxes for Sean Payton.

25. Green Bay Packers

DB Cooper DeJean, Iowa

Even after landing a big-play safety in Xavier McKinney, the Green Bay secondary still needs more help. DeJean is one of the most versatile players in this class, with the ability to line up anywhere in the secondary (outside corner, slot, box safety, single-high) and make a ton of big plays. He brings added value as a return man, too.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

OL Graham Barton, Duke

There are multiple pressing needs on defense (edge rusher, linebacker, corner), but the Bucs need upgrades at both left guard and center if they want to be more effective on offense in 2024 and beyond. Barton can play all five positions up front, making him the ideal fit for whichever spot Tampa Bay isn’t able to fill in free agency.

27. Arizona Cardinals (from HOU)

CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson

After filling their biggest need on offense with Harrison, the Cardinals are in position to use their additional first-round pick to do the same thing for the other side of the ball. Wiggins is lighter (6'1”, 173 pounds) than most teams would prefer their corners to be, but his elite combination of speed, instincts and ball skills might be enough to make up for it.

28. Buffalo Bills

WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU

Buffalo lost a big, fast receiver to free agency in Gabe Davis, but this scenario gives them the chance to get an upgraded version to pair with Stefon Diggs. Thomas has a rare blend of size (6'4", 209 pounds) and speed, and would be a massive problem for opposing defenses over the top when combined with Josh Allen’s elite arm strength.

29. Las Vegas Raiders (from DET)*

QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington

Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell can’t be the Raiders’ only options at the game’s most important position. Penix has a well-documented injury history, but he got a clean bill of health from the medical exams at the NFL Scouting Combine, and he brings upside that Minshew and O’Connell simply can’t touch. Trading back into the first round to get a potential franchise passer on a rookie deal with that fifth-year option is worth the future second-round pick it would likely cost to make the move up the board.

30. Baltimore Ravens

OL Jordan Morgan, Arizona

Morgan led the Wildcats’ offensive line with a pass-blocking grade of 87.3, per PFF.

Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

Grabbing another big-play receiver might be tempting here, but this offense doesn’t go if they’re not handling business in the trenches, so that should be the primary focus for the Ravens here. Morgan has the experience and versatility to play either guard or tackle, and he’s got a solid blend of power and movement skills to be an asset both in pass protection and in the ground game.

31. San Francisco 49ers

DL Johnny Newton, Illinois

The surprising release of longtime veteran Arik Armstead leaves the 49ers with a gaping hole in the middle of their defensive front. Replacing Armstead’s impact (both on the field and in the locker room) won’t be easy, but landing a disruptive interior force like Newton this late in the first round wouldn’t be a bad start.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

WR Xavier Worthy, Texas

Even before his record-breaking 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, we knew Worthy’s speed was his greatest asset. But he’s also a sharp route-runner who tracks the ball extremely well, and he’d be downright unfair in this offense, catching passes from Patrick Mahomes and making opposing defenses pay for spending too much attention on Travis Kelce.

Teams without a first-round pick

33. Carolina Panthers

WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas

Even without a first-round pick, the Panthers should be able to land a first-round talent here, thanks to this year’s loaded receiver class. Mitchell has the elite speed to go deep or make big plays after the catch, as well as a blend of leaping ability, ball skills and body control that makes him a valuable red-zone threat.

39. Carolina Panthers (from NYG)

Edge Chris Braswell, Alabama

Braswell forced a team-high three fumbles in 2023 to tie for the SEC lead.

Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

After trading away their star pass rusher in Brian Burns, Carolina would be wise to spend one of the picks it’s getting in return to try and replace some of his impact. Braswell was a five-star recruit coming out of high school, and that elite talent blossomed with a breakout campaign for the Crimson Tide last season.

54. Cleveland Browns

Edge Brandon Dorlus, Oregon

Even after re-signing Maurice Hurst II and Za’Darius Smith, the Browns should still be looking for long-term help along the entire defensive front. Dorlus is a versatile player who can play on the edge or slide inside, and he’s got the skill set to create matchup problems regardless of where he’s lined up, especially if opponents are too focused on trying to slow down Myles Garrett.