Through three weeks of the 2022 NFL season, the Miami Dolphins are the top team in the AFC. If the playoffs began today, the Jacksonville Jaguars would hold down the second seed. The Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders wouldn’t even crack the conference’s top 10.
This is all thanks to a tremendously small sample size, but it does suggest the league’s ever-changing landscape of contenders continues to shift. While things in the NFC are a bit more predictable, the action in the AFC suggests a wide open, unpredictable race to seven playoff spots.
Of course, this could all be overreaction. Three weeks isn’t enough time to jump to conclusions, especially when the Chicago Bears are on pace for an 11-6 season. But those games also provide a few data points that might help parse out the future.
Let’s use them to address this week’s rising trends.
1
The Philadelphia Eagles, actually, are the NFL's Death Star
In three games — against three kinda/sorta NFC playoff contenders — the Eagles have sprinted out to leads of 38-21, 24-7 and 24-0 en route to a comfortable 3-0 start. They’re the only undefeated team left in the NFC and powered by a passing game where Jalen Hurts has thrown for more than 670 yards in his last two games.
Philadelphia’s defense has allowed only 13 points the last two weeks, shutting down the Vikings and Commanders in the process. The Eagles are a game up on the rest of the NFC with a very easy schedule remaining. Unsurprisingly, that’s made them the favorite to win the conference, clocking in at +350 odds just ahead of the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Buy or sell? Sell, slightly.
There’s no doubt Philadelphia is very good. It’s too early to call it great.
The Eagles’ wins have come over the 23rd, 26th and 29th ranked defenses in the NFL. Their two defensive triumphs, vs. the Vikings and Commanders, came against primetime Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz. They had to hang on to overcome a feisty, but overmatched Lions team in what finished as a 38-35 game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars bring a bit of a no-win situation to town in Week 4. Beat them and, cool, you beat the Jaguars and claimed the “W” you wrote in ink back in July. Lose to them — which would make sense, because they’ve been great — and suddenly you’ve cast doubt on an incredible start.
Even so, beating the Jags is a leap forward on the path to greatness because …
2
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a playoff team
Since losing to the Commanders in Week 1 thanks to a late interception from Trevor Lawrence, the Jags have been on a tear. In the past two weeks they’ve beaten a pair of potential AFC playoff teams, trouncing the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers by an aggregate score of 62-10.
There have been several highlights to Jacksonville’s hot start. After getting paid like an upper crust wide receiver this offseason, Christian Kirk is currently on pace for a 102-catch, 1,500-yard, 17 touchdown campaign. Lawrence has thrown six touchdowns against one interception and belongs a tier above Hurts on the chart above. A young defense is making the kind of plays that make veteran quarterbacks look stupid.
No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker picks off Carson Wentz.pic.twitter.com/qCEX2F53Nr
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 11, 2022
The Jags are 2-1 and stand alone atop a disappointing AFC South. 2022 looks like their first playoff season since the world said goodnight to Florida’s sweet prince Blake Bortles.
Buy or sell? Buy in moderation.
The Jaguars aren’t winning with gimmicks. This isn’t the 2008 Dolphins winning with the wildcat formation. Head coach Doug Pederson is writing a simple script and trusting his playmakers to make plays. And they are.
This just in: @Robinson_jamess is good at football.#JAXvsLAC on CBS pic.twitter.com/OGbfWq7Vlg
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) September 25, 2022
Jacksonville has the horses to run with anyone, which will help fend off the regression that accompanies a surprising team’s hot start. Opponents will find flaws as they grind tape, but the Jags have played composed football. This early spurt isn’t a fluke, and while these blowouts may not be the new normal wins won’t be.
Factor in an easy schedule and an eminently winnable division and you’re looking at a playoff team.
3
The Los Angeles Chargers are in real trouble
The Chargers are 1-2 and coming off a blowout loss to the enlightened Jaguars. Their running game is averaging 2.6 yards per carry. Justin Herbert, on the brink of a possible MVP campaign, is dealing with a rib injury. A rebuilt defense constructed to topple the AFC’s most prolific offenses just game up 38 points to a Jacksonville offense that controlled the ball for more than 38 minutes of game time.
That’s left a team with Super Bowl hopes staring down the potential of a fourth-straight season without a playoff berth. Herbert is playing through pain. As good as he can be, he’s gotten little support from his running backs and, more recently, his defense. Is this another omen that the football gods are coming for one of the league’s most cursed franchises?
Buy or sell? Buy, and be very sad about it.
Justin Herbert’s average target depth is only 6.7 yards downfield — 27th-lowest in the NFL. This is not because he can’t throw deep nor because he doesn’t want to. It’s because his blocking is getting worse.
Herbert shined in Week 1 when his offensive line kept his jersey clean and kept him from being sacked. In Week 2, his average target depth dropped by two full yards as the Chiefs blitzed more often and eventually hit him hard enough to fracture his rib cartilage. The Jaguars weren’t as effective getting to him in Week 3, but that’s because his playbook was littered with quick, short throws designed to fill the role an ineffective running offense (12 carries, 26 yards) could not.
This isn’t going to get any better with left tackle Rashawn Slater, the best player on this line and one of the best in all of football, now out for the season with a torn bicep. An injured Herbert is going to have to be superhuman behind an even weaker offensive line than the one that had muddied up his offense the last two weeks.
4
Jimmy Garoppolo isn't going to save the San Francisco 49ers
Well …
(sigh)
never before did i think you could save 5 points by Orlovsky-ing yourself out the back of the end zone, but somehow Jimmy Garoppolo did just that pic.twitter.com/xVJaDQ0lmb
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 26, 2022
Buy or sell? Buy.
Garoppolo is arguably the league’s most valuable backup and a commodity for a San Francisco team that won’t have Trey Lance back before 2023. But he’s also Jimmy Garoppolo, who throws short and throws inaccurately and is generally good for one baffling play per quarter.
The Niners have planned around this by giving him dynamic wideouts who can take a short pass and turn it into a big gain. This didn’t happen against the Broncos’ stout defense. Instead, Garoppolo turned to his left and accepted modest gains as Denver swarmed around his predictable game plan.
Is looking right enough to save Handsome James? MAYBE.
Deebo Samuel might still be running if Jimmy Garoppolo looks his way on this play. pic.twitter.com/8yLsUghpUB
— Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) September 26, 2022
Is he gonna do it? Five years of watching him in San Francisco suggests probably not.
5
The Los Angeles Rams are recalibrating and biding their time before another big playoff run
The Rams got boat-raced in Week 1 by the Buffalo Bills. They barely hung on to a 28-3 lead a week later against the Atlanta Falcons.
But in Week 3, their ship righted itself. Los Angeles led for nearly 55 minutes of a 20-12 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. Matthew Stafford, despite not throwing a touchdown pass, racked up nearly 10 yards per attempt. Cam Akers, a bit player in the offense the previous two weeks, found the end zone and averaged better than five yards per carry.
The win improved the Rams to 2-0 against conference opponents and gave them sole position of first place in the NFC West. With the Cardinals struggling, the 49ers weighed down by whatever the hell Jimmy Garoppolo was doing last week and the Seahawks being the Seahawks, the road back to the postseason is a smooth one.
Buy or sell? Buy, slightly.
There was plenty to be worried about Sunday afternoon. LA was out-gained by the Cardinals. It allowed Arizona to convert four of five fourth down attempts. After a slow start, the Cardinals gained at least 47 yards on each of their final five drives.
Those drives didn’t land in the end zone, however. While Kyler Murray threw for 314 yards he needed 62 dropbacks to get there. He didn’t carve up the Rams on the ground, gaining only eight rushing yards.
More importantly, the Los Angeles offense clicked despite a relatively low-key day from Cooper Kupp. Kupp only garnered six targets and Allen Robinson only made two catches, leaving Tyler Higbee, Ben Skowronek and Brandon Powell to thrive in the holes their coverage created. They combined for 11 catches and 150 yards — more than 60 percent of the team’s passing output! — on 11 targets.
This creates another headache for NFC defenses to gameplan against; the most efficient pieces of the Rams offense were the guys you barely give a second thought in fantasy.
The one looming concern that’s followed the Rams through the Les Snead era is an apparent lack of depth. On Sunday, those were the guys who proved the difference between winning and losing.
