The first round of our fireable head coach rankings debuted with an obvious name at No. 1. Poor Matt Rhule was saddled with the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, failed to turn them into something better and was fired after two-plus seasons, 38 games, and 11 wins.
He was the first firing of 2022. He won’t be the last. This season has been the backdrop to disappointing performances and baffling decisions that will have some familiar faces and new hires under the microscope as Black Monday — the day after the regular season ends that winds up the backdrop to most coach firings — approaches.
Who’s in trouble this winter? Well, most of the AFC West, it turns out. Let’s dig in.
6
Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
Staley is 4-3 and his job is likely secure, but that doesn’t mean 2022 hasn’t been a disappointment for a team hoping for a breakthrough. His rapid rise to head coach — he was a Division III college football coordinator as recently as 2016 — has yet to pay off for the Chargers. Instead of piloting Los Angeles into contention his team has struggled against an easy schedule and made tasks like “beating broken Russell Wilson and the Broncos” or “not getting embarrassed by the Jacksonville Jaguars” look difficult.
Turning simple tasks into a complex and painful procedure is a longstanding Chargers tradition, but this year was supposed to be different. The inexpensive nature of Justin Herbert’s rookie contract, fresh off a breakthrough 2021, allowed the team to splurge in free agency. Last year’s fatal flaws — a mediocre defense and an offensive line in need of repair — were supposed to be fixed.
Instead, those problems persist. Even worse, Herbert’s regressed thanks to dwindling time in the pocket and a gameplan that can’t adjust to the team’s weaknesses. If Staley can’t push Herbert to his potential and make him the proper successor to Philip Rivers’ throne, he’s got to go.
(And yes, there are a lot of questionable decisions to go for it on fourth down that too often fail to pan out)
Staley’s frustrating performances earned him the final spot on this list, just edging out the Indianapolis Colts’ Frank Reich and Cleveland Browns’ Kevin Stefanski in the pile of “guys you kinda trust to get you to the playoffs, but not really.” Any of those three being fired would be surprising — Stefanski especially, seeing as he was AP Coach of the Year in 2020 and his current quarterback is Jacoby Brissett — but not completely outside the realm of consideration.
5
Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bowles was retained to provide continuity following Bruce Arians’ retirement in late March. He was also retained because most of the other viable coaching candidates had been poached by that point.
Tampa Bay may want a do-over in January, especially if it’s locked out of the playoffs. The Bucs are in the midst of a 1-5 skid and currently in a four-way tie for 10th place in a disheveled NFC.
Tom Brady looks mortal. His 92.4 passer rating is roughly 10 points below his Tampa average and his 2.6 percent touchdown rate is by far a career low. An offensive line held together with duct tape and childrens’ wishes in the middle has cleared no space in the running game. Brady’s 2.41 seconds from snap to throw is his lowest since 2016 when the NFL began tracking that stat.
Bowles’ specialty as a defensive coordinator hasn’t exactly shined either. While the Buccaneers are stout against the pass they’re also allowing more than 4.7 yards per carry on the ground. Opponents have gained at least 150 rushing yards in four of their last five games, limiting Brady’s opportunity to piece together comebacks.
No one’s quite sure what Brady’s going to do next season, but his future in Tampa may hinge on the organization making changes so he can eventually retire on top rather than whatever the heck his 2022 is. Bowles could be swept out as a result.
4
Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints
Like Bowles, Allen was promoted after the well-regarded head coach above him retired. But while the Tampa Bay defensive coordinator inherited an offense led by Tom Brady, Allen got Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton and a whole bunch of Taysom Hill gadget plays.
The Saints are 3-5 and incredibly difficult to figure out. They’re capable of shutting out the Las Vegas Raiders and their then third-ranked scoring offense. But that came from the same team that gave up 142 points in the four games preceding Week 8. New Orleans was the final victim of Matt Rhule’s 11-win reign of terror in Week 3 and tripped up the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks in Week 5.
Allen’s issue is that he’s stuck with two mediocre quarterbacks with little chance of improving this situation. New Orleans’ perpetual place in salary cap hell — an estimated $56 million over the projected 2023 cap already! — means the only reliable avenue for upgrading the roster is through the draft. But the Saints have already traded away next year’s first rounder, leaving Allen or whomever is coaching this team no choice but to push forward with the flawed roster already in place.
That gives Allen some extra insulation, though probably not the kind he’d like. The Saints job is thoroughly undesirable right now and even a more accomplished head coach would have trouble fixing this. But that’s an opportunity for the former coordinator. If he can pull it off he’d prove a worthy successor to Sean Payton.
3
Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders
McDaniels’ Raiders seem to find ways to lose. In Week 2, that meant giving up 19 straight points in the fourth quarter and overtime to fall to the Arizona Cardinals. In Week 8, he took the league’s third-ranked scoring offense to New Orleans and wound up shut out.
This season was supposed to cement Las Vegas’ place as a contender after last year’s 10-win 2021 ended with in the Wild Card round. Instead, the Raiders are 2-5 and coming off a game in which Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow combined for two catches and nine yards.
McDaniels tends to create gameplans and then be completely unable to deviate from them, allowing opponents’ momentum to wash over him and carry his team out to sea. His offensive strategy hasn’t been enough to overcome a disappointing defense and Las Vegas has been unable to gain a foothold despite the crumbling sandcastles that dot the rest of the AFC West.
It’s rare to see a head coach get fired after only one season, but not unheard of. It happened twice last season, though there were extenuating circumstances in each case — Urban Meyer being a shambling disaster of a human being and the Houston Texans effectively using David Culley to take a gap year and tank their way to a top three pick. McDaniels will probably get a second chance in Nevada — but Week 8’s bedwetting was a reminder disaster is a very real possibility for his Raiders.
2
Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos
Hackett’s brain farts have slowed since his baffling start as an NFL head coach, but they haven’t ceased. He and Russell Wilson were supposed to lead the Broncos to a new era of contention. Instead, they’re 3-5 and have scored fewer points than all but one other team in 2022.
This has been a stunning display of incompetence from a longtime pro offensive coordinator. Hackett was an OC with three different teams between 2013 and 2021. While only two of those featured top five scoring offenses, his work restoring Aaron Rodgers to MVP form and ability to turn Blake Bortles into what was almost a Super Bowl quarterback were both assets Denver was keen to invest in.
Instead, Wilson has been roughly as efficient as Justin Fields or Mitchell Trubisky through eight weeks.
That’s completely untenable for a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs since Peyton Manning retired. But Wilson signed a $240 million contract extension this offseason (lol) and isn’t going anywhere. If push comes to shove, the quarterback stays and the coach has to go. Hackett may get a second chance to run this team, but the minor improvements he showed in London to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars will have to be the start of something bigger.
1
Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals
Kingsbury signed a contract extension that keeps him tied to the franchise through 2027. This was partially a sign of faith but mostly a way to avoid a lame duck coach stumbling through the final year of his original contract.
This deal hasn’t been the motivating factor the Cardinals had hoped. Arizona is 3-5 this season. Only one of those victories came over an opponent that has more than two wins — and that was the 3-5 New Orleans Saints in a game where Andy Dalton threw two pick-sixes in the first half.
The biggest culprit has been a defense that ranks 30th in scoring defense, but Kingsbury’s reputation as an offensive trendsetter has failed to translate once again in 2022. The hot starts that defined his last two seasons with the Cardinals have faded into nothingness thanks to DeAndre Hopkins’ PED-suspension absence over the first six games of the year and Kyler Murray’s frustrating regression as a passer — his quarterback rating is down 15 full points compared to last season.
Arizona ranked 15th in total offensive DVOA last season and 19th the year prior. This year that number has dropped to 26th, backed by a 27th-ranked passing offense. An attack that was supposed to rise above the rest of a struggling NFC West has instead sank alongside it. The Cardinals passing game is roughly as efficient as Jared Goff’s Detroit Lions or the Cooper Rush Dallas Cowboys.
The Cardinals recently signed Murray to a five-year extension with $160 million guaranteed. They can’t move on from that commitment. But like in Denver, they can move on from the coach who is failing to get the most from the quarterback they’re tethered to long-term. Kingsbury’s career has been defined by cold streaks that end his seasons on a sad note. In 2022, his first NFL head coaching job could be snuffed out by a team unable to heat up at any point.
