Job security is mostly a mirage for NFL head coaches. While some mainstays are effectively employed for life — Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Pete Carroll — the majority of the league’s play-callers are subject to constant review and criticism.
18 weeks of the regular season all lead to one decisive moment for the league’s struggling coaches: Black Monday. That’s the day that, with a frustrating regular season in the books, franchises either decide to clear the decks or give a downtrodden coach one more chance to steer the ship in the right direction.
The 2022 season is still in its infancy, but with four weeks of results and in some cases years of disappointment to back them up, we have a good idea which coaches will have to sweat out Black Monday and who may not even make it that far. The first month of the season presented a blank canvas for bad decisions. These six coaches took that opportunity to create art.
6
Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts
This list typically only runs five deep. Consider Reich an honorable mention whose history of being “pretty good” may not save him if the Colts bottom out in 2022.
Reich is 38-30-1 in four-plus seasons with Indianapolis. He had Andrew Luck in his debut campaign and advanced to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Then Luck retired in 2019 and his quarterbacks since have been:
- Jacoby Brissett
- Brian Hoyer
- Philip Rivers (39 years old)
- Carson Wentz
- and now Matt Ryan.
He’s 28-24-1 despite that lineup, which is an argument in his favor. He’s also 1-2-1 to begin 2022, getting very little from a 37-year-old Ryan and currently the architect of the only non-loss on the Houston Texans resume. This is much less compelling.
Like many of the names on this list, Reich has been stricken by mediocre quarterback play. Ryan was supposed to lead a revival after Wentz flopped his way out of what appeared to be a lock-solid playoff bid. Instead, he’s been worse than Joe Flacco, has seen his average air yards per throw dwindle to a career-low 6.3 (fourth-lowest among starting QBs) and lost a league-worst 117 yards via sack.
There may be a light at the end of the tunnel. Week 4 was Ryan’s most promising game as a Colt so far. He threw for 356 yards on 37 attempts with two touchdowns and an interception in an effort to lead Indy back from an early 24-3 deficit.
The Colts still lost, however. At 1-2-1 they sit in third place in the AFC South and 12th place in the AFC at large. One bad year may not be able to sink Reich, but it would make it four straight seasons without a playoff win. That could give Indianapolis ownership something to think about.
5
Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints
Allen was promoted to New Orleans’ top job after seven seasons working as Sean Payton’s defensive coordinator. The Saints hoped his presence would provide an extension of Payton’s prosperity in Louisiana.
It has not.
The Saints are 1-3 to begin Allen’s first year. Jameis Winston, who reinvented himself as a low-variance, high-efficiency passer in seven games before getting hurt last season, needed just one game to fracture bones in his back in 2022.
New Orleans’ offensive line is allowing its quarterbacks to be sacked at roughly twice the rate Drew Brees was in the final years of his NFL career. In the process, Winston appears to have reverted back to his Tampa ways (five interceptions in Weeks 2 and 3 before sitting out Week 4).
The offense may not be Allen’s biggest concern. As the team’s former defensive play caller, the longtime assistant built a unit capable of papering over Brees’ late-stage flaws en route to winning records. That group is still good in 2022, but not good enough to be a difference maker in the standings.
Allen’s Saints rank 25th in offensive efficiency and ninth on defense, per RBSDM.com. In Payton’s final season — one where Winston, Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian and Ian Book all started games — New Orleans ranked 25th and second, respectively.
New Orleans is a lesser team without Payton. What’s worse is that backsliding to a top 10 draft pick won’t even pay off. General manager Mickey Loomis traded that away to the Philadelphia Eagles last spring.
The Saints may bottom out in 2022 with no prize waiting on the other side. If that’s the case, Allen could wind up falling on his sword after only one year at the helm.
4
Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals
Kingsbury signed a five year contract extension back in March. This may have been a vote of confidence. Or it may have been a regrettable cost of preventing a lost season with a lame duck head coach.
The former Texas Tech head coach earned an extension ahead of quarterback Kyler Murray rather than heading into the 2022 season with an expiring contract. Through four games, it doesn’t appear that added job security has improved anything.
The hot starts of Kingsbury’s past seasons have dissipated in 2022 for a 2-2 Arizona team whose wins have come over a pair of 1-3 clubs (the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers, both of whom led at halftime). Murray, who played at an MVP-adjacent level in the first half of 2021:
has had moments of brilliance but has been, from an efficiency standpoint, a below average quarterback in 2022:
This is a bad sign! Kingsbury’s Cardinals typically dash out of the blocks and into contention with big starts before falling apart in the second half. Arizona is 13-3 before November 7 the last two years and 6-12 after it.
While DeAndre Hopkins’ return from a PED suspension should help, Kingsbury’s offense is mediocre (14th in both points and total yardage) and his defense stinks (28th in points allowed, 24th in third down conversion rate allowed, 27th in opponents’ yards per play). Arizona needs to make significant in-season changes to spark improvement. This has never been Kingsbury’s strong suit.
Would the Cardinals fire him less than a year after extending him? Maybe! If management believes he’s hindering Murray, who has $160 million in guarantees attached to his new contract, then the head coach could be the ballast jettisoned from a foundering ship. Murray’s extension makes Arizona’s his team, not Kingsbury’s — and if Kingsbury can’t make his quarterback worth the expense, the Cardinals will look for someone who can.
3
Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos
It’s rare to see a full-time coaching hire get relieved of his duties after only a single season. It’s only happened 17 times since 1994, though it happened twice last year when both Urban Meyer (Jacksonville Jaguars) and David Culley (Houston Texans) were sent home.
Hackett isn’t Meyer-levels of actively harmful, but he could be Culley levels of overwhelmed. The former Packers offensive coordinator hasn’t been able to coax Aaron Rodgers-style magic from Russell Wilson or take advantage of a defense that’s given up fewer points than all but four other teams in the NFL this season.
In Week 1, he took a hatchet to his own win probability by planning out a 64-yard field goal attempt rather than trusting Wilson on fourth-and-five:
— lowlight heaven (@lowlightheaven) September 13, 2022
In Week 2 he managed the clock so poorly he got heckled by his own fans in his home coaching debut.
Broncos fans are helpfully/mockingly shouting out the play clock on every play as Denver struggles to manage the clock. pic.twitter.com/53p339HGME
— Kyle Clark (@KyleClark) September 18, 2022
Hackett’s two wins have come over the 0-3-1 Texans — a game in which the Broncos trailed heading into the fourth quarter — and the San Francisco 49ers thanks in large part to Jimmy Garoppolo forgetting the length of an American football field.
never before did i think you could save 5 points by Orlovsky-ing yourself out the back of the end zone, but somehow Jimmy Garoppolo did just that pic.twitter.com/xVJaDQ0lmb
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 26, 2022
It took four weeks for Wilson to score more than a single touchdown in a game. Only 30 percent of the team’s red zone drives have finished in the end zone. Only the Colts and Bears have scored fewer points.
Denver needed an offensive boost after two seasons of defensive-minded Vic Fangio. It acquired Hackett and Wilson in hopes of putting the rest of the AFC on notice. Instead, the Broncos have been a punchline.
2
Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders
Like Reich, Rivera has been saddled with a continual string of underwhelming quarterbacks. Unlike Reich, he’s been unable to turn that chicken crap into the occasional bout of chicken salad.
In 36 games under Ron Rivera:
🏈 Trailed 20-0 in 19% of games.
🏈 Trailed by 20 in 27% of games.
🏈 Trailed at any point in 91% games (2nd worst in NFL).Saw a couple of these stats in @WashPost via @ngreenberg and @ScottSAllen.
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) September 29, 2022
Rivera has yet to record a winning record in Washington — in fact, he only has three in 11-plus years as an NFL head coach. His top three defense from 2020, the defining factor that pushed the then-Football Team to an NFC East title at 7-9, slid to 27th in DVOA in 2021 and currently sits at 24th. This has put tremendous pressure on an offense whose quarterback is Carson Wentz which, yep, is going roughly as expected.
The Washington offense gained 537 total yards while scoring 18 points in a pair of losses to the Eagles and Cowboys in Weeks 3 and 4 that have sunk the Commanders to the bottom of the East. The Seattle Seahawks, comparatively, put up 555 yards and 48 points while beating the Detroit Lions last Sunday.
That leaves Washington with a team that’s neither good nor interesting. Rivera’s lone playoff appearance in D.C. was an act of charity from the rest of a forlorn division. Now he’s sliding to the bottom of the NFC. While that should put the franchise in great position to draft another quarterback it can ruin over time, it’s unclear whether Rivera will be there to see it through.
1
Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers
Matt Rhule tried to revive Teddy Bridgewater’s career in 2020. It didn’t work.
Matt Rhule tried to revive Sam Darnold’s career in 2021. It went very, very poorly.
Matt Rhule is trying to revive Baker Mayfield’s career in 2022. It is not working even a little bit.
Rhule is 11-26 in two-plus seasons in Charlotte. The turnarounds he engineered at Temple and Baylor are simply not transferring to the pro level. Things are so bad sportsbooks are offering odds on the Panthers’ next head coach while Rhule is still employed there.
Carolina’s offense has cratered and has yet to gain at least 300 total yards in a single game. The defense has been fine but prone to gassing out because Mayfield’s incompetence means the Panthers’ opponents hold the ball for a league-high 35-plus minutes per game. This is a bad team with little hope of getting better.
So yeah, it makes sense to put up those Carolina coaching odds in early October. Rhule is almost certainly gone.
