Could this be the year the New Orleans Saints finally trade down? There’s a precedent for teams trading into the final picks of the first round, hoping to secure a coveted fifth-year option for rookies taken in the first frame, and this might be their best shot to benefit from it and win back some of the future draft capital they sacrificed over the last year.
To get an idea of which trade offers might be out there, we ran a draft simulation on Pro Football Network which offered three different prompts for the No. 29 overall pick (and the updated Rich Hill draft pick valuation chart helps grade each of them). Which of these offers would you sign off on?
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers offered a trade that would have the Saints falling out of the first round, from No. 29 overall to No. 45 in the second round — while adding the Packers’ second-round pick in 2024 to their coffers. They just asked for New Orleans’ projected compensatory pick at No. 260 in return, and that’s a minor asset the team should be comfortable parting with. You just have to wonder if they’d be comfortable passing on the top prospects available in such a large move down: Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt or Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs could both enliven the offense, while Texas A&M nickel Antonio Johnson looks like the C.J. Gardner-Johnson replacement they missed defensively last season.
Rich Hill model exchange of value: Approximately +52
Detroit Lions
We also received an offer from the Detroit Lions, who were willing to part with a more-immediate asset to talk the Saints into trading out of the first round. Detroit offered their third-round pick at No. 81 in a trade that would have the Saints drop down from No. 29 to 48 overall in the second round. And there’s some value in this. It would make the Saints big players in the draft’s second day, going on the clock four times in a 41-slot span (at Nos. 40, 48, 71, and 81). That’s tempting, but if these were our best offers I’d prefer Green Bay’s trade. If the Packers don’t have Aaron Rodgers leading their offense in 2023, they could fall off hard and that 2024 pick might clock in during the 30’s. Detroit needs to pay more to make this worth New Orleans’ while.
Rich Hill model exchange of value: -26
Arizona Cardinals
Fortunately, we got one more offer in while weighing our options — and it was too good to pass up. The Arizona Cardinals called about a trade up from the third pick in the second round at No. 34 overall, offering to swap the rights to their 2024 second rounder for New Orleans’ pick at No. 114 (a fourth-round selection) along the way. And the Saints would be fools to pass on this one if it were really offered to them. Arizona might be the worst team in the league this fall, so the Saints could end up picking at No. 34 in back-to-back years through no fault of their own. Giving up a mid-round pick to facilitate the deal isn’t ideal, but the Saints drafted Ian Book in that range only to cut him a year later, so I’m not sweating it too much.
Rich Hill model exchange of value: Approximately +71
