When you try to evaluate draft grades, the way most people do them is by comparing the picks each team makes based on the value and talent the player possesses.
For example, if player X is the third-ranked offensive tackle on the board with a pre-draft player ranking of 10th overall. They are selected pick 15, but they are the fifth offensive tackle to be drafted. That’s a value pick.
On the flip side, player Y is the sixth-ranked offensive tackle with a pre-draft player ranking of 25th overall. He is the fourth offensive tackle selected at 11th overall. That would be considered a reach.
This is a very incomplete science, as everything is based on projection, but with the goal being to get the best players, the goal is to utilize the best process.
The consensus board from Pro Football Network’s Arif Hasan is the best tool to gauge when it comes to what kind of value you get from where a player was selected. Naturally, the higher the selection, the more value variance you have. If you draft a player in round five with a 50-player variance, that’s less impactful than if you draft a player in the first round with a 10-player variance.
How did the Vikings do compared to the consensus? Let’s take a look.
USC WR Jordan Addison
Drafted: No. 23 (WR4)
Consensus board ranking: 24 (WR3)
Variance: 1 (-1)
The selection of Addison is right in line with market value based on the consensus board. He was selected one spot higher than he was on consensus with one receiver ranked behind him going ahead of him. That in itself is moot because he was the last of four wide receivers to come off the board in a row at No. 23.
USC CB Mekhi Blackmon
Selected: 102 (CB12)
Consensus: 185 (CB21)
Variance: 83 (9)
This is where things start to get murky. It looks like the Vikings reached on Blackmon and they did, but it’s not by as much as you might think.
Cornerback isn’t completely fluid. They all play a certain position/fit a certain scheme. Blackmon projects best in a press-man scheme and won’t be a fit in a cover-3 zone scheme that asks him to drop consistently and use length to clog passing lanes.
Yes, Blackmon likely could have come off the board later, but the Vikings did acquire picks 164 and 222 to take him 15 spots later, so the process was better than just over-drafting him. His ranking being different from the consensus board also stems from a very deep cornerback class where opinions massively varied from analyst to analyst after the top three players.
Something to note: Blackmon, like Addison, had an injured back during testing at the combine and the USC pro day was a monsoon. That likely contributed to his fall.
LSU S Jay Ward
Selected: 131 (S5)
Consensus: 179 (S14)
Variance: 48 (9)
Ward was the last of the players that were true versatile pieces. Brian Branch and Jartavius Martin were the other two and they went on day two. Ward can do a little bit of everything. He has multiple starts as a deep safety, STAR (nickel corner) and outside corner. That versatility is something that is prioritized in Brian Flores’ defense and Ward was arguably the last guy that provided that. At the end of round four, that value is just fine, but you would have liked to have a little bit more value based on consensus.
DT Jaquelin Roy
Selected: 141 (DT14)
Consensus: 116 (DT14)
Variance: -25 (0)
Roy was a player that wasn’t going to test phenomenally and that was a major factor in his draft position. His game is all about power and leverage at the point of attack. In this defense, that works out great! His explosiveness is better than what the testing numbers will give credit for but they aren’t elite in any sense. Compared to Dalvin Tomlinson, Roy will carve out a role on this team. He is also the last player before a major talent cliff which is likely a big reason why the Vikings traded up 17 spots for him.
BYU QB Jaren Hall
Selected: 164 (QB9)
Consensus: 168 (QB12)
Variance: 4 (-3)
Taking a quarterback a spot above consensus isn’t the biggest issue. Compared to other positions, quarterback is so reliant on situations. Going to a bad situation is brutal no matter how talented the player is. With that said, Hall should not have been the 12th quarterback selected, especially after Sean Clifford who had no business being drafted. He also happens to be a perfect fit for what the Vikings do, as he ran this offense in college. This is about where Hall should have gone, but nobody would have batted an eye if he went earlier or later.
UAB RB DeWayne McBride
Selected: 222 (RB16)
Consensus: 139 (RB12)
Variance: -83 (-4)
The fall of McBride is due to two reasons: he didn’t get to test due to a hamstring injury and he has only five catches for 29 yards on nine targets. UAB just didn’t throw the football at all to their running backs. He is a complete unknown in that aspect, and that’s a good portion of being a running back.
Outside of that, McBride runs like a car wreck. He pulverizes defenders with his power and has the contact balance to stay upright and have defender just bounce off of him. Taking a player like this in round seven is fantastic process in a very deep running back class.
