The Houston Texans won’t be on the clock Thursday night as 32 prospects hear their names called and enter the NFL fraternity.
Or will they?
General manager Nick Caserio has proven his willingness to add “his players” over the seven rounds in the previous three drafts. He traded up to land Nico Collins in 2021. A year later, he secured the services of John Metchie III and Christian Harris.
Last season, the Texans believed in Will Anderson Jr. so much that they traded their own first-round pick in 2024, along with a first second and third-round selection to move up nine spots with the Arizona Cardinals.
Anderson rewarded Houston by breaking J.J. Watt’s rookie sack record en route to a division title and Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Maybe the Texans stand pat at No. 42 until Friday evening. Perhaps Caserio makes a few phone calls before calling it a day. That doesn’t mean he’ll sit back and make nine selections.
Houston can land five players and no one should be shocked. No one should lose their mind if the Texans add a dozen names by trading down for better value.
Every year, I do a mock draft. It’s been a passion of mine since I was sitting in my grandpa’s living room watching as Radio City Music Hall was buzzing on a Saturday afternoon between selections and analysis from the godfather himself Mel Kiper Jr.
The Texans currently aren’t scheduled to pick on Day 1, but I’m still keeping the tradition alive. Here’s my definitive — and only — first-round mock as the Chicago Bears prepare to take USC’s Caleb Williams.
Stop pretending he’s not the pick, people.
1. Chicago Bears (from CAR): QB Caleb Williams, USC
You have a better chance of winning the lottery and later being mugged while getting struck by lightning, only for that golden ticket to go on a “Homeward Bound” trip across the state and land at your feet in the hospital bed as you’re writhing in pain from the electrical backlash than seeing Chicago pivot elsewhere.
The bolt of lightning would be less “shocking” than this going any other way.
2. Washington Commanders: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
This should be the pick. While LSU’s Jayden Daniels is enticing because of his mobility and downfield accuracy, Maye might have the higher upside. He’s a prototypical passer who can sling it deep while also delivering quick strikes across the middle. People seem to forget that Maye also played in an Air Raid offense for two years at North Carolina, so he fits what new OC Kliff Kingsbury is looking for.
When in rhythm, Maye’s nearly impossible to stop. He’ll have a promising receiving corp to work with in D.C., and the cannon will be uncorked in due time. Maye has the skills to be the best quarterback in the class, so Washington would be foolish to look elsewhere.
3. New England Patriots: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
There’s a scenario where New England trades down to land its hopeful franchise passer, but it’s hard envisioning this close to the draft. Daniels, the reigning Heisman winner and top passer in college football last season, provides a second element to an offense thanks to his mobility. He also has an impeccable deep ball and isn’t afraid to improvise.
The Patriots can’t afford to trust Jacoby Brissett for 17 games in the first season of the Bill Belichick-less era, so chalk this up as a win for Jerod Mayo and new OC Alex Van Pelt.
4. Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Monti Ossenfort would love to move down. He did it last year with Houston and came away with a pretty decent overhaul, including a franchise left tackle. If no one calls, Arizona takes the best receiver in the class. Harrison would touch down in the desert and immediately be the team’s top weapon.
Harrison, at least in my opinion, is the top prospect in the class. He’s special in space, has an unfathomable route tree and rarely drops passes. There’s no such thing as a “perfect prospect” but the son of Hall of Fame pass-catcher and Peyton Manning’s best friend is as close to 10/10 in league history. He does everything and will be everywhere for Kyler Murray in 2024.
5. TRADE Minnesota Vikings (from LAC): QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
DETAILS: Chargers trade Nos. 5 to Vikings for Nos. 11, No. 108, No. 129 a 2025 first-rounder and a 2025 third-rounder
The Vikings need a quarterback after losing Kirk Cousins. McCarthy is a quarterback. You do the math, people.
McCarthy isn’t a top-five talent, but I’ve come around to calling him a first-round prospect. He delivers clean passes, has the football IQ of a 10-year veteran and isn’t afraid to attack the middle of the field while under pressure.
Sometimes having a point guard to facilitate an offense is enough to keep momentum trending forward. Cousins did it for years while working with Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and countless others. McCarthy will be playing in a pro-style offense that caters to his strengths while throwing to Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones.
Honestly, this is the best fit for him to thrive right away. Watch him take over the NFC and make all of us apologize.
6. New York Giants: WR Malik Nabers, LSU
With four quarterbacks off the board, New York looks to add another weapon for Daniel Jones. Good because it’s the right move regardless of McCarthy’s draft status entering a crucial Year 3 for Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen.
Of the two receivers left, Nabers offers a bit more explosiveness. He has sure-fire hands that can be effective as a deep threat, but he shines across the middle of the field. Nabers still needs to work on his route-running, but the upside is unlimited. Big Blue lands a big-time playmaker who could be the best receiver to play at MetLife since the last LSU receiver donned the uniform.
7. Tennessee Titans: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
Tennessee has a dynamic offense headlined by DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard. It means nothing if Will Levis is running for his life like a chicken avoiding the axe come dinner time.
Alt might not be a 10-year All-Pro, but he arguably has the highest floor in the class outside of Harrison. He’s sturdy in pass protection, delivers a good base and plays with smooth footwork in small spaces. At worst, he’s a solid starter for over a decade in Nashville and a building block for Ran Carthon’s regime.
I don’t care if it’s a boring pick. Boring keeps you employed, sometimes.
8: Trade New York Jets (Via ATL): WR Rome Odunze, Washington
DETAILS: Jets trade No. 10 and 2025 second-round pick to Falcons for Nos. 8, No. 187
Joe Douglas is about to fall through the ice and most of New York will gladly walk past him if the Jets fail to make the playoffs. He has to swing this year to make sure Aaron Rodgers and this top-five defense make it to the postseason if he wants to be back in 2025.
Odunze is an electric pass-catcher with a big, muscular frame and very strong hands. He wins with body control and balance and has the skills to jump and catch passes while readjusting his body mid-air to come down with the ball. Among the three targets, the 6-foot-3 Odunze might be the best in contested catch situations.
Scouts have compared Odunze to Davante Adams and it’s clear to see why. Rodgers wanted Adams to join him in New York, so consider this the middle ground.
9. Chicago Bears: DL Byron Murphy, Texas
Murphy, at least for my money, is the best defensive prospect in the class. When you have a bull-rushing defensive tackle that makes life easier on passing downs, you can take a massive exhale and relax. Last season, the former Texas star was fifth among all interior defenders in 2023 with 45 quarterback pressures, according to Pro Football Focus.
Last month, I started pushing the “Murphy in the Top 10” narrative. That seems to be the reality for many with the top three receivers off the board. Pairing him with Montez Sweat and Gervon Dexter makes too much sense here.
10 (VIA NYJ) Atlanta Falcons: EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama
If “having your cake and eating it, too” was a draft pick, meet it. Turner is the favorite to land in Atlanta at pick No. 8. Instead, the Falcons allow New York to jump Chicago, pick up a future third-round pick and land the player they covet two picks down the road.
Turner would give Atlanta an athletic edge rusher who can rush and play the run in Raheem Morris’ new-look defense. Last season, the 6-foot-5 edge rusher proved his leading man value with 10 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss without Will Anderson. Again, it’s a win-win for all three parties.
11 (VIA MIN) Los Angeles Chargers: OT Taliese Fuaga
Jim Harbaugh is going to want to build his trenches if he hopes to establish “Harbaugh football” out west. That starts with trusting the run. Good luck finding a better run-blocking tackle with pass-pro upside as polished as Fuaga coming into the draft.
Strong, sturdy and a bit flexible for his size, the former Oregon State star possesses smooth footwork and a physical punch to knock defenders off the path. He’s also a mover, quickly getting out his break to reach the second level of the defense. Fuaga paired opposite Rashawn Slater gives Justin Herbert two solid outside options known for their rushing upside.
12 Denver Broncos: EDGE Laiatu Latu , UCLA
Denver needs a quarterback, but it doesn’t need to reach at No. 12. The Broncos finished middle of the pack in pressures and sacks, so adding a legit pass-rusher might benefit all parties entering Year 1 of the official rebuild.
Latu could be the best defensive player if the medicals clear, but it’s a risk-reward for any team. Since transferring to UCLA, he’s been Pac-12’s Tasmanian Devil, racking up 24 sacks and 35 tackles for loss in two years. While he’s been cleared from his neck injury, one hit could chage the trajectory of Latu’s career.
So long as Denver feels good about his medical situation, Latu might be the most impactful pass rusher from the jump.
13. TRADE Cincinnati Bengals (VIA LV) : TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
DETAILS: Bengals trade No. 18, No. 80 and No.224 to Raiders for No. 13, No. 208
Tyler Boyd is gone, Tee Higgins wants out and Cincinnati still thinks its window for a Super Bowl is open. How does Zac Taylor and Co. find a way to grab a competent No. 2 receiver long-term? Trading up for the best tight end prospect in ages is a pretty good start.
Bowers is a top-five prospect at a bottom-five position. He’s a fluid route runner with Sonic the Hedgehog acceleration that’s sustainable at any level of the field. Bowers also has a big catch radius, so overthrown passes aren’t a concern.
The only downside with Bowers’ game is his blocking, and even that’s putrid. Cincinnati secures a new running mate for Ja’Marr Chase and a top target for Joe Burrow ownership goes back to being cheap like in years past.
14. New Orleans Saints: OT Olu Fashanu
This is the easiest pick in the draft. New Orleans hasn’t seen the return on the Trevor Penning investment and Ryan Ramczyk’s future is in serious jeopardy. While it’s a risk to wait, the Saints secure the most athletic offensive tackle that’s as pro-ready as they come.
New Orleans, please don’t overthink this selection.
15. Indianapolis Colts: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
There are rumors that Indianapolis could be looking to trade up for one of the top three receivers, but the asking price is too high. If he were to fall to No. 15, Bowers would, without question, be Chris Ballard’s guy. With both options off the table, adding a No. 1 cornerback to contain Nico Collins, Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, and whoever else joins the AFC South is the best option.
Mitchell is a strong tackler who hits hard and doesn’t lose a step coming out of his break. He’s fluid in coverage and has exceptional reaction time to fly to the ball carrier. Some would consider Mitchell a ball-hawking magnet after totaling 18 pass breakups last season on a Rockets’ roster that nearly went undefeated.
Everything teams want in a top cover man resides in Mitchell’s physical play style. He’ll provide problems in the division on third down in coverage.
16. TRADE Philadelphia Eagles (via SEA): CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
DETAILS: Seahawks trade No. 16, No. 235 to Eagles for No. 22, No. 53, 2025 third-round pick
The Eagles’ secondary had its wings clipped and cost the city a conference title. Philadelphia’s offense is built to win, especially after adding running back Saquon Barkley Its defense, however, can be a liability at times.
By moving up for Arnold, the Eagles secure their long-term No. 1 cornerback and heir apparent to Darius Slay. The similarities between the two are uncanny in man coverage and reaction time. Arnold also loves to play the run and show off his ability to hit.
This is a tenacious no-nonsense defender who carries himself with an attitude like he owns the field. That’ll play well in Philly among the fans.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
Every few drafts, it feels like two teams are fighting over two prospects but are content landing the “other” option. If trades aren’t involved, this year’s duel is between Indianapolis and Jacksonville for Mitchell and Thomas.
With Mitchell off the board, the Jaguars secure their Calvin Ridley replacement with last season’s leader in touchdowns at the FBS level. Thomas relies on speed and his quick-twitch ability at the line of scrimmage to win downfield (17.3 YPC at LSU in 2023) vertically. He rarely drops passes and can track balls with insane over-the-shoulder catches.
Suddenly, the AFC South has become a paper-view fight each Sunday between four squads with pure talent fueled by being the laughingstock of the league for three years.
18. Las Vegas Raiders (Via CIN): QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
If the rumors are true that Las Vegas likes Penix, this is how they have to make the pick. The Washington quarterback has a cannon of an arm, elite decision-making skills and incredible downfield accuracy. He’s also one of the oldest prospects to be mentioned in the first round since Brandon Weeden.
If Las Vegas wants to add another quarterback to the room, it should trade down, add a pick or two and then pull the trigger. Outside of that, staying at No. 13 to build off the offensive and then trading back into Round 1 for Penix is the best-case scenario.
19. Los Angeles Rams: EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State
Adding an offensive tackle made sense last month for Los Angeles. Then, Aaron Donald retired, so sights point to the defensive side, now. Verse is a powerfully built pass rusher with the agility of a 5-foot gymnast training for Paris. He can slip pass offensive tackles with a low-center bend, but he’s also not afraid to become violent with his hands while working upfield.
Verse totaled 62 pressures in 2023, tied for fifth-most among edge rushers, according to PFF. He’s going to need some work defending the run, but he also could lead all rookies in sacks and pressures to no one’s shock.
20: Pittsburgh Steelers: OT JC Latham, Alabama
Last year, Pittsburgh added its left tackle of the future in the first round. This year, the Steelers plan to fix the right side on Day 1 of the draft. Latham is a bulldozer and brings that level of voltage in the run game, often eliminating edge rushers before the play unfolds. His massive frame gives him the advantage when working hand placement, and he’s a great finisher against SEC opponents.
Are there limitations in Latham’s pass-blocking? Sure. Is he a right tackle only at the next level? Yes. Does that matter to Pittsburgh, who needs to upgrade that side of the line for whichever ‘rejuvenated gunslinger award-winning passer’ takes over for Kenny Pickett? Nope, not even a little.
21: Miami Dolphins: OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
It would make so much sense for Miami to just finish collecting the final piece of the speed force to build four Barry Allen clones on offense with Xavier Worthy, right? Who’s stopping an offense with Jayeln Waddle, Tyeek Hill, De’Von Achane, and the new 40-yard dash record holder?
The offensive line, so adding Mims for the long run is the best plan. Despite starting eight games in Athens, there’s ample to like about Mims’ upside. He’s got that raw combination of size, length, and movement skills and uses his frame to absorb hits while eventually using the force against opponents.
Mims won’t start Week 1, but he should slip over the respectable tackle spot by midseason while waiting to eventually replace Terron Armstead.
22. Seattle Sehawks (VIA PHI): OL Troy Fautanu
Congrats to Seattle since it just won the draft. Moving down six spots and still landing a positionless offensive lineman who excels with quick feet and violent hands? It truly doesn’t get much better than that for new coach Mike Macdonald.
23. TRADE Kansas City Chiefs (Via MIN): WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
DETAILS: Chiefs trade Nos. 32, No. 95, 2025 third-round pick to Vikings for No. 23
Dallas is looking at Mitchell, according to those around The Star. After securing Hollywood Brown this offseason, Kansas City needs size on the outside with an exceptional catch radius. Mitchell, who caught everything at Georgia and Texas while playing in five College Football Playoff games, has that No. 1 mentality and pure speed that becomes a nightmare for teams in man coverage.
Mitchell combines smooth route-running skills with big-play talent and isn’t afraid to get physical against cornerbacks. He’s a three-level threat who could be a sturdy No. 2 option in Year 1 while transforming into one of the league’s better red-zone threats.
24. TRADE Arizona Cardinals (Via DAL): CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
DETAILS: Cardinals trade Nos. 27, No. 90 to Cowboys for No. 24, No. 233
With Mitchell gone, Dallas opens the phone lines. Green Bay could use a defensive back, but so could Arizona. The Cardinals still have four picks on Day 2, so Monti Ossenfort can trade down and still recoup the draft capital in no time.
Wiggins has been a popular name for the Cardinals throughout the draft process. He’s extraordinarily twitchy in coverage with quick feet, a smooth backpedal, and above-average body control when coming in and out of breaks. Wiggins excels when asked to make plays on the ball, as evident by his 18 pass breakups and three interceptions over the previous two seasons.
25. Green Bay Packers: OL Graham Barton, Duke
Green Bay needs a tackle, but it also could use a center after another lackluster year from Josh Myers. Why not add both with Barton, a tackle by trade who likley shifts inside at the pros?
Barton is a steady, easy-moving bully on the offensive line who blocks with like a [Blue] devil and fundamental positioning. He’s better suited as a guard at the next level, but some think his knowledge, flexibility and mean streak will transition to center.
It’s between Cooper DeJean and Barton at this point. Protecting Jordan Love, however, might be a more dire priority given that the Packers are about to back up the Brinks truck to keep up the tradition of replacing a future Hall of Fame passer with a legit superstar.
26. TRADE Washington Commanders (VIA TB) : OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
DETAILS: Commanders trade Nos. 36, No. 67, No. 100, 2025 fourth-round pick to Buccaneers for No. 26, No. 220, 2025 seventh-round pick
Washington is stacked with draft capital and no one seems to be taking notice. Their offensive line was so abysmal last season, fans were trying to convince themselves that trading back from No. 2 to draft a tackle while running it back with Sam Howell was smart.
Tampa gets an overhaul to move back to Day 2 while the Commanders secure their right tackle of the future. Guyton has good power, natural hand usage, and great awareness when recognizing defensive line shifts and double moves to keep balance in pass pro. The last time Washington drafted an offensive tackle from Oklahoma in the first round, he became an All-Pro.
No, Guyton isn’t Trent Williams 2.0. but his tools should get him into the starting lineup from Day 1 and remain there for maybe a decade.
27. Dallas Cowboys (Via ARI): OT Jordan Morgan, Arizona
Maybe Dallas just stands pat and takes Guyton at No. 24, but Morgan is a natural left tackle. Over his three seasons with the Wildcats, he allowed 10 sacks in over 1,500 pass-protection reps and just 18 QB hits, according to Pro Football Focus.
Tyron Smith is gone and Tyler Smith has improved at guard. Morgan is an athletic, quick-footed tackle with a promising frame that’s plug-and-play ready to win as a run blocker. Even at 6-foot-3, he has the flexibility to absorb the hit, reshift his body, and keep his feet planted to fight back.
Gaining a third-round pick and a left tackle by moving back three spots? Look, kids: the Cowboys did something smart this offseason in the end.
28. Buffalo Bills: OL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
The Bills have to take a receiver on Day 1, correct? It’s a no-brainer. Well, Buffalo has a stable rushing attack with Josh Allen and James Cook, so maybe steering into the ground game is actually the best plan.
Powers-Johnson is like your Mom and Dad’s offensive lineman. He has smooth footwork and a balanced base, but he packs a strong punch and brings excellent upper-body power to shuck defensive tackles out of the way. Powers-Johnson should have considered bull riding as a hobby since he latches on to defenders and takes them on a ride to the second level that usually lasts longer than eight seconds.
There’s a slew of talented pass-catchers in the draft. There are two (maybe three) quality center prospects. It’s hard to imagine, but Buffalo can afford to pass on a weapon this late.
29 Detriot Lions: DB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
DeJean has to come off the board at some point and the draft tumble ends with the team hosting the event. If not for a broken leg, there would be an argument that the Iowa do-it-all defender was the top defensive back in the class. He still might be given his position flexibility and special teams skills.
What doesn’t DeJean do well? He’s a physical corner who loves to hit and can mirror even the fastest receivers downfield. He’s a willing tackler against the run and isn’t afraid to blitz while taking on blocks. According to Pro Football Focus, DeJean picked up seven interceptions to go along with 13 pass breakups and allowed one touchdown in two years.
The Lions need corner help and a full-time nickel defender. Guess where DeJean is at his best?
30. TRADE Tennessee Titans (VIA BAL): WR Xavier Worthy , Texas
DETAILS: Ravens trade No. 30, No. 218 to Titans for Nos. 30, No. 108, No. 129 a 2025 first-rounder and a 2025 third-rounder
There’s always some random trade no one sees coming on draft night. Say hi to it, folks. Tennessee was rumored at the start of the offseason to potentially target a receiver at No. 7. Instead, the Titans move back up into Round 1 and land the home run threat Worthy to give Levis another option.
Worthy has speed; not just straight-line capabilities, but actual game-changing world-class torque. He’s shown the ability to be an exceptional ball tracker and can line up anywhere on the field. While only 168 pounds, Worthy took on countless hits over his three seasons at the Longhorns’ No. 1 target, and he forced 13 missed tackles last season in Austin.
With the Texans and Jaguars adding receivers, plus the Colts bolstering their defense, the Titans have to keep pace. Worthy provides that vertical presence, and would be an ideal long-term replacement for Hopkins.
31. San Francisco 49ers - CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
Maybe the Texans phone John Lynch to land one of the two prospects left, but the 49ers also have a long-term need at cornerback. With McKinstry, San Francisco would secure itself with a physical, tenacious tackler that thrives in man coverage. His football IQ is through the roof and he’s been battled-tested going up against stars in the SEC for three years.
If the Texans would love McKinstry for their brand of defense, the 49ers should be ready to propose. They own the pick, so they win the battle.
32. Minnesota Vikings (VIA KC): DL Johnny Netwon, Illinois
Newton’s blend of power and elusiveness reminds me of Christian Wilkins. Can anyone remember who is the Vikings defensive coordinator? Does anyone remember where Brian Flores made a name for himself as head coach?
Adding Newton to the trenches in a trade is the best of both worlds for Minnesota. Landing a franchise quarterback is essential, but so is securing a top pass-rusher up the middle. Netwon creates havoc nearly every snap, so adding that to a defense that just lost Danielle Hunter might be a way to secure eight wins in 2024.
