An axiom of those of us who have covered the NFL draft for a long time is simple: “Size is not a skill.” This has been especially true for positions where fans and mainstream media can get tantalized by a player’s physical traits including quarterback, wide receiver and defensive back.
The premise is accurate. Just because a player is big, doesn’t mean they are good at playing football. That also applies to speed. A really fast player doesn’t automatically make them good at the football skills necessary to play the game at a high level.
That doesn’t mean size and speed are not beneficial, it just means that have to be used properly for it to matter. Vernon Gholston and Stephen Hill are two easy examples.
Gholston had a breakout year at Ohio State before lighting up the NFL combine with amazing power, speed and explosion for his size. He was drafted sixth overall and never produced a sack. Hill ran a 4.28 40-yard dash at 6’4″ and 215 pounds at the combine. He played two seasons in the league with a total of 45 receptions and two touchdowns.
With the Cleveland Browns possibly looking to add a receiver as early as the second round, the 2021 season showed something interesting. While size and speed don’t equal production, last year’s production was mostly made by those with size and speed by receivers drafted in the second round:
Also interesting to note 9/10 WRs were top-100 picks but only 3/10 of first-round picks.
The sweet spot for WRs is Round 2/3, just ask the Packers and Steelers, the best receiver drafting teams of the last 15 years.
— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) April 11, 2022
The data is clear, bigger, faster, and quicker players drafted on day two produced the best in 2021.
Based on data from the combine, only Kevin Austin Jr. of Notre Dame hit all of those thresholds. Jalen Tolbert, Alec Pierce and Treylon Burks met three of the four but were not under the three-cone number.
Seven other receivers met the first three criteria but didn’t run the three-cone drill: Christian Watson, Isaiah Weston, George Pickens, Braylon Sanders, Ty Fryfogle, Mike Woods and Makai Polk.
Four receivers didn’t run the 40-yard dash and three-cone but met the size requirements: Drake London, Justyn Ross, Romeo Doubs and Erik Ezukanma.
Given the Browns use of data to help make decisions, it would not be surprising to see a receiver that meets these criteria drafted by the team as one of their first three picks. Burks and London are expected to be drafted in the first round while Pickens, Watson, Pierce, Ross and Tolbert could be drafted in the top 100 picks.
Based on last year’s data, a few names to keep an eye on at the receiver position in this year’s NFL draft.
