The New England Patriots control their own destiny when it comes to securing the #1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Should they lose their Week 18 game against the Buffalo Bills, they’ll secure the top spot for the first time since 1993, and there are a handful of options when it comes to the direction they’ll take.
According to the betting odds, the most likely scenario has them trading away the pick for extra assets.
NFL Draft 2025 Odds: Raiders Favored To Trade Up To #1
It looked as though the New York Giants were well on their way to securing the top pick. Entering Week 17, they had fewer wins than any other team in the NFL, and simply needed to lose to Indianapolis and Philadelphia to close out the season. In desperate need of a franchise quarterback, it looked like they’d be in perfect position to select one of the top prospects, whether it be Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders or Miami’s Cam Ward.
But a five touchdown performance by quarterback Drew Lock against the Colts all but took them out of the running, putting the Patriots in position to win the grand prize via the strength of schedule tiebreaker. All that New England would need to do is lose to the Bills this coming Sunday, and they are listed as 2.5-point underdogs.
The #Patriots now have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. pic.twitter.com/pPB4NHjjWg
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 29, 2024
What Would The Patriots Do With The #1 Overall Pick?
The situation in New England isn’t as clear-cut as it would be in New York. Just last season, the Patriots spent a top-3 pick on a quarterback when they took Drake Maye, who has impressed this season despite his team’s poor record. This means that they would have options on what to do with the top selection in 2025, and the folks at BetOnline have released the odds for which path New England would be most likely to choose.
The most likely scenario is that they trade out of the #1 spot, assuming that their trade partner would be a team looking to select a quarterback. That option is listed on the odds board with a -200 designation, which are implied odds of over 66%.
| Trade Pick | -200 |
| Draft Travis Hunter | +100 |
| Draft QB & Trade Drake Maye | +1000 |
The second possible scenario and selection would be that the Patriots stay put at #1 and draft Travis Hunter. The Heisman Trophy winner is a rare two-way talent that New England would be able to pair with Maye to create their connection of the future, and he figures to be a top-3 pick no matter which teams are in the mix. This scenario is listed at +100 (implied odds of 50%).
There is one other listed option. What if the Patriots decide to stay put at #1 and draft a quarterback for the second year in a row? There is an outside chance that New England selects one of Sanders or Ward, and in turn trade Maye for extra draft capital. Maye is young enough and showed enough talent that he could potentially be flipped in exchange for an extra first round pick (and maybe more), and the Patriots would reset their quarterback clock for another season.
This long shot option is listed with a +1000 designation, which are implied odds of less than 10%.
Which Teams Might Trade For The #1 Pick?
If the Patriots do choose to trade away the top selection, which teams are most likely to make the move up the draft board?
| Las Vegas Raiders | +200 |
| New York Giants | +250 |
| Tennessee Titans | +400 |
| New York Jets | +500 |
| Cleveland Browns | +500 |
Raiders +200
Las Vegas is likely to see their first round pick land somewhere within the 7-10 range, out of position to nab one of the elite QB prospects. But they have been linked to Shedeur Sanders for some time, and it would come as little surprise if they chose to give up some future assets in order to move up and select the Colorado quarterback. They have their own picks in each of the first three rounds, in addition to the Jets’ 3rd round pick via the Davante Adams trade.
Giants +250
Winning that game over the Colts cost New York the chance to control their own draft destiny, and they’d have to give up some draft capital in order to select Sanders or Ward. Along with the Raiders, the Giants are perhaps the most QB-needy team in the league after finally cutting ties with Daniel Jones, and could be looking to make a splash by bringing a top prospect to the Big Apple.
Titans +400
The Titans have selected a quarterback within the first three rounds in two of the last three NFL Drafts, though neither Will Levis nor Malik Willis proved to be the answer. They instead alternated between starting Levis and Mason Rudolph throughout the 2024 campaign, on their way to securing their third straight losing season and their lowest win total since 2015. Would trading up for one of this year’s top prospects be worth it for Tennessee?
SOURCE: Barring an unforeseen change the Jets are expected to move on from QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Davante Adams this offseason.
Source tells us the relationship between owner Woody Johnson and Rodgers is “irreparable.” pic.twitter.com/FjWIHPaime
— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) December 31, 2024
Jets +500
One of the most interesting QB situations in the NFL this off-season will be that of the New York Jets. It is becoming increasingly likely that Aaron Rodgers won’t be back for the 2025 season, and backup Tyrod Taylor is anything but a long-term succession plan. Could they take a swing by trading up in the upcoming draft and hope to pick a franchise-changing talent?
Browns +500
Cleveland still has at least a year of riding with Deshaun Watson and his gaudy contract, but they might want to get a head start by bringing in his successor during the upcoming draft process. The Browns are currently one of the teams that shares the league-worst 3-13 record, but are projected to land a pick somewhere in the 3-5 range due to the tie breaking procedures.
