The idea that any one moment in a general manager’s tenure can make or break their tour of duty is a bit of a fallacy. The GM’s seat is so different from any other position in the football hierarchy, as much about politics and the ability to explain certain decisions that were made, or not made, during a critical period of time as picking or trading players. There are great GMs who were dismissed unceremoniously because they were bad corporate suits. There are terrible GMs who still walk their halls today, waiting to disappoint their fan base all over again.
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That said, there are certainly moments that follow general managers around. While this has nothing to do with the draft, it’s likely fair to say that whatever happens on the Aaron Rodgers front will ultimately steer Joe Douglas’s future in Florham Park. We can debate and weigh the merits of the positive, such as the incredible 2022 draft in which the Jets netted the offensive and defensive rookies of the year, versus whatever happens to Rodgers and whether that venture can be considered a success.
So when we say general managers are facing a make-or-break draft, we don’t mean if they screw this up they’re gone. There are some first-year general managers on this list, after all. But we do mean that, when they are (eventually) gone, this could be a moment we look back on and say, “Here’s the moment it can all be traced back to.”
Brad Holmes, Lions
I don’t mean for this to sound harsh. I think we can all agree Holmes has done a solid job rebuilding the Lions to the point where they are a legitimate threat to win the NFC North this year. I think we can all agree even if Detroit doesn’t win the division this year, Holmes should continue to see his plan to completion. But the Lions have two picks—No. 6 and No. 18—in a first round that will be bogged down by teams selecting quarterbacks. That means one of the best overall players in the draft will plop onto Holmes’s doormat. The No. 18 pick gives off a similar vibe, though it’s also an additional piece with which to deal. The 18th pick was dealt from the Eagles to the Titans for A.J. Brown a year ago, which represents its ultimate upside. Normally, the No. 18 pick is the beginning of a dividing line between true first-round talent and first-round talent in name only. Look at a few of the players drafted at No. 18 in years past:
• Dolphins LB Jaelan Phillips (2021)
• Dolphins OL Austin Jackson (’20)
• Vikings C Garrett Bradbury (’19)
While Jaire Alexander was also taken 18th by the Packers in 2018, and Justin Jefferson was taken 22nd in ’20, the point is the Lions, which are ready to contend and potentially be a legitimate factor in the Super Bowl discussion, should be judged on how they maximize that asset and perhaps flip it for an established talent.
Monti Ossenfort, Cardinals
As a first-year GM, Ossenfort is still getting the decor picked out for his office, so we’ll pump the brakes just a little bit on the do-or-die rhetoric. That said, the Cardinals are in a tremendous position of strength in this year’s draft. With the third pick, they will either inherit the best nonquarterback available, or field a small ransom to trade back for someone else who wants to get in on the quarterback run.
Ossenfort has been paired with new coach Jonathan Gannon, the Eagles’ former defensive coordinator. It would seem like a massive win for Gannon to be able to hand select, and eventually build his defense around, someone like Tyree Wilson or Will Anderson Jr. The only issue here, similar to the one the Jaguars faced last year, is you cannot get the pick wrong. We don’t know whether Travon Walker is going to be great. Jacksonville had better hope he’s more successful than Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux. If a defensive-specific head coach has a defensive player in mind who will serve as the centerpiece of a diminished defense for years to come, this is not the kind of pick they can whiff on. This is why I’d be curious as to how Ossenfort reacts to live bullets when the draft starts rolling, and a perceived mystery team wants to move up. Back in 2013, the Raiders traded out of the No. 3 spot with the Dolphins, which pushed up the board for Dion Jordan. For the pleasure, Oakland received an additional second-round pick. The Bills moved up into the same neighborhood for Josh Allen at the cost of two second-round picks in addition to the first-round pick swap. It’s not a place where you’ll typically strike gold in terms of draft equity, but when you change general managers, the hope is they’ll be able to do something that other GMs could not do.
Nick Caserio, Texans
Caserio has been the general manager of the Texans since 2021. Since that time, the team has fired two consecutive coaches after a single year, and has won a combined seven games. While I’m not placing Caserio on the chopping block, here is the reality of the situation: A contract is power in the NFL, and the Texans gave new coach DeMeco Ryans a six-year deal. Ryans has the clout to outlast anyone else in the building right now, including whichever quarterback he may or may not take with the No. 2 pick. This is not breaking news, but my understanding of the Texans’ situation back when they hired David Culley was that they viewed their rebuilding situation as a three-year project. This season would be Year 3 and, theoretically, a time when we should see some legitimate competitiveness. So, if the Texans draft a quarterback, and the quarterback performs well, it would go a long way toward shaping Caserio’s vision and tidying up the narrative he seems to be selling behind the scenes about a roster that is turning the corner. As we mentioned above, a GM never knows which pick is going to help him sink or swim, but being in a position to either draft a generational QB talent or trade that spot away to someone else willing to take the risk is going to be a bold line on the résumé.
Chris Ballard, Colts
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The other day I spent some time on The Athletic Football Show, and we did a bit of an examination of the Colts’ roster. The host, Robert Mays, noted Ballard has had some successes, but that the roster is essentially built around guard play and interior linebacking play. It was stunning to hear it said so clearly: The roster’s best players are a guard and an off-ball linebacker. Those are your strengths. My words, not his: It’s a bit like building a house in the middle of the ocean.
The fact Jim Irsay has begun to pry his way into the team’s inner workings again must have sent shockwaves through Ballard’s office. It is a clear indication that Irsay is, at the very least, taking stock of the organization from top to bottom. If he was thrilled with the product the GM was putting on the field, he wouldn’t have fired Frank Reich and installed a crony in the position to give him some straight answers. Now, the Colts are sitting at pick No. 4, which will give them a shot at one of the four best passers in this draft. I don’t think Indianapolis is in a position to pass on that opportunity. If you’re Ballard, going into the year with Gardner Minshew as your clear-cut No. 1 starter would be as close to a white flag as we’ve seen from a GM on the theoretical hot seat.
The beauty of where the Colts are sitting is they have a chance to come away with a special player who can use Minshew as a shield to get prepared. Imagine, for example, if what we thought in December holds: Anthony Richardson is sitting on the board. In Shane Steichen’s offense, he could be a legitimate star. That would take a little bit of pressure off Ballard in 2024.
Scott Fitterer, Panthers
Fitterer has traded picks for Baker Mayfield, Matt Corral, Sam Darnold and, now, whoever else the Panthers will take with the No. 1 pick. To say that he needs to get this one right is an understatement, even if Frank Reich, Josh McCown, Thomas Brown and others will make up a lion’s share of the critical voices in the room. I admire Fitterer’s willingness to keep taking hacks at the quarterback position instead of settling or paying some $40 million for a Derek Carr–type player. If they truly don’t know who they want at the No. 1 pick right now, all the better. It’s high time a team went into this process trying to come to a legitimate outcome instead of reverse engineering the scientific method to prop up a hunch they had in the first place.
Dave Ziegler, Raiders
Here’s another name that feels obvious. Ziegler pushed a lot of chips to the center of the table with the Davante Adams trade last year. Now, Derek Carr is in New Orleans, and we’ll see whether Jimmy Garoppolo is more than a swap for comfort and familiarity. The Raiders are in position to make this a draft that can elevate them for years to come (and they have been hosting most of the top quarterbacks available for predraft visits). The No. 7 pick provides options. The Raiders are high enough to have a prospect fall to them, they’re close enough to get to No. 3 without spending too much, and they have extra picks in the third, fifth, sixth and seventh rounds. They’ve done an excellent job of setting the table for a franchise-altering draft, but we’ll see what kind of mind meld between Ziegler and coach Josh McDaniels exists. How quickly are those players going to perform? Last year, three of the Raiders’ draft picks appeared in most, if not all, of their games. Rookie Dylan Parham started all 17 games and allowed six sacks, which was third among guards. Still, he was a solid contributor in the run game, and his fortunes as a pass blocker could change dramatically with a quicker-strike offense in tow.
Ran Carthon, Titans
Like Ossenfort, no one here is saying this is the one and only chance Carthon has to prove his mettle. But … when Mike Vrabel is your coach, there are only so many opportunities to be close to the No. 1 pick, or even in a range where you can move up and acquire a legitimate starting quarterback. I think 2023 is that kind of time for the Titans. There have been countless blueprints laid out as to how a team can get from No. 11 into the top five without spending a ton, even for a Titans team that has just six picks to work with in the cupboard. Limiting their rebuilding process to a quick two-year turnaround would represent a huge win for an executive with big shoes to fill. So, too, will some potential draft night decisions regarding how he can flip some of his own talent for more picks.
Bill Belichick, Patriots
The Patriots are like Buckingham Palace at the moment. There are several figureheads all jockeying for power and legacy in full view of the public eye at a time when the monarchy itself is crumbling. Belichick has forever defended his draft record and is now reportedly shopping Mac Jones. To say he could use an immediate contributor is a bit of an understatement. While I personally don’t think the rabble-rousing about Belichick having lost a step has much merit, consider Robert Kraft’s position. Are the Patriots going to go through another year of operating in a familiar way, when there is a small but significant sample size showing them they cannot win the way they used to without the greatest player in NFL history? Because a lot of Belichick’s picks come out of left field, we assume there is some kind of flippancy with which they are made. I tend to think it’s just tunnel vision on Belichick’s part, and he may be growing tired of explaining the grand scheme of things (or he no longer thinks he has to). Either way, I don’t think the optics of a pick such as Cole Strange last year will favor the Patriots and, thus, will probably not favor the person everyone knows is pulling the levers.
Tom Telesco, Chargers
Telesco spent heavily last offseason—Los Angeles was fifth in free-agency dollars allocated, at a little over $218 million—and the Chargers were bounced in the opening round of the playoffs. Now, with the burden of a Justin Herbert extension pending—that guy wouldn’t have as hard of a time locking in a fully guaranteed deal as Lamar Jackson—there is a serious need to produce. The Chargers are an organization that embodies the razor’s edge right now. One great season, I think, would legitimize the idea Brandon Staley is the right man for the job (I think he is, too). One more bad season would probably introduce some bedlam, especially given the pivot point at which the organization stands. While it’s hard to expect a GM to net a high-impact player at the No. 21 spot, there has been a history of teams doing so. This is sort of a “show your work” spring for Los Angeles and, at the moment, it has no additional compensatory selections and no additional mid-round ammunition to maneuver throughout the draft. That places a lot of pressure on Telesco to nail the choices he does have and push this roster from fringe contender into the legitimate force many of us think it can be.
