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Forbes

Business

Alex Kay, Contributor

2020 NFL Season Odds: Betting Lines For Rookie Of The Year Award, Rookie Stats And Quarterback Battles

The 2020 NFL Draft was one of the most interesting ever and the reason for that was not only because it was the first “virtual” draft to be conducted in an entirely remote manner. While it is true that the draft was the only major sporting event held since leagues began shutting down due to coronavirus concerns back in mid-March—and consequentially drew an unparalleled level of interest, with the first round alone shattering records with an average of 15.6 million viewers to the television broadcasts and streams, over four million viewers higher than the previous record set in 2014—it also featured some of the most intriguing college football prospects in years. While no one was shocked when the 2020 NFL Draft began with the Cincinnati Bengals securing a potential franchise quarterback in LSU’s Joe Burrow with the No. 1 overall pick, the rest of the draft was rife with exciting moments.

Now that all the top prospects have found a home, fans are looking forward to seeing how they do on the field at the professional level. Bookmakers are hoping to capitalize on this interest in the 2020 NFL Draft results by releasing a slew of prop betting odds related to the most notable prospects. Many of these lines involve benchmarks for significant statistical milestones and whether the player will achieve it or not. For example, one can bet if Chase Young, the Ohio State pass-rusher who the Washington Redskins selected at No. 2 overall, will go over or under 8.5 sacks during the 2020 NFL season.

There are 14 props like this in total, with young receivers drawing the lion’s share of interest. Bettors can wager on if Henry Ruggs III—the first wideout off the board this year after the Las Vegas Raiders picked him at No. 12 overall—will reach 800 total receiving yards, but he’s not the rookie WR with the highest total yards projected. That honor goes to Jerry Jeudy, Ruggs’ teammate at Alabama, who was selected three spots later at No. 15 by the Denver Broncos. CeeDee Lamb, the Clemson receiver many experts had mocked as the top wideout in the 2020 NFL Draft class, is also ahead of Ruggs, as bookies have pegged his receiving yardage mark at 850 for his first season with the Dallas Cowboys.

First-year quarterbacks have a few different statistical milestones that can be wagered on. The books released passing yardage, touchdown and interceptions lines for the three top quarterbacks off the board during the 2020 NFL Draft. Joe Burrow unsurprisingly is ahead of contemporaries Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert in the projected yardage and scoring categories, but not by much. The new Bengal currently has totals set at 22.5 TDs and 3,800 yards, just a hair ahead of the Los Angeles Chargers’ new franchise QB Herbert (21 TDs and 3,400 yards) in these departments. Burrow is also expected to throw more picks this year (16.5) than Tua, who is only expected to commit 15.5 turnovers via the air during his rookie campaign with the Miami Dolphins. Herbert is projected to be the most interception-prone of the three signal-callers to come off the board within the first six picks this year, getting a total set at 17.5.

If Tagavailoa can keep his turnovers low and help the ‘Phins win games this season, he is the player that oddsmakers feel has the best chance at usurping Burrow for the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Burrow has been the heavy favorite to win the award since lines were released and the Heisman Trophy winner is currently hovering around +250—meaning one would win $2.50 for each $1 risked—to add another piece of hardware to his growing collection. There is some distance between Burrow and Tagovailoa at +800, while some other big-name rookies are clumped right behind Tua, including a pair of running backs in Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor who both have 9-1 odds to win the award. Edwards-Helaire was the only running back picked in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft and landed in a great spot when the Kansas City Chiefs closed out Day 1 of the draft by taking the LSU product at No. 32. He is projected by Vegas to be the league’s leading rookie rusher by far, getting a rushing yard total set at 950 for the year. Despite his respect ROY odds, Taylor—the Wisconsin workhorse who was taken in the second round (No. 41 overall) by the Indianapolis Colts—only has an over/under of 550 rushing yards for the upcoming campaign. That puts him behind D’Andre Swift, Georgia back that landed with the Detroit Lions early (No. 35 overall) on Day 2, who has a rushing yardage total pegged at 625 for the season and +1200 odds to win the Rookie of the Year Award.

Those looking to bet on things besides rookie totals and awards do have the option of placing a wager down on some other unique props that the books have cooked up. Two of these involve the upcoming quarterback battles in LA and South Beach that involve a mix of veterans and first-year players. The Chargers will see Tyrod Taylor, Justin Herbert and Easton Stick all vie for the QB1 gig going into the first week of the 2020 NFL season, a job that Vegas thinks Taylor has the best shot at locking up at -370 odds, while Herbert is +260 to reach the top of the depth chart before the campaign begins and Stick a long shot at +3200. It’s not as clear-cut in Miami, but grizzled veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick does seem to have a leg up on the competition as -270 chalk over Tagovailoa at +200, with third-year signal-caller Justin Rosen a +2500 dark horse to start in Week 1.

Looking even further ahead, oddsmakers have already released an early look at their 2021 NFL Draft big board, which is headlined by Clemson star quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The signal-caller is going into his true junior year and has been at the helm of the program since stepping onto campus, helping take the Tigers to a pair of national championships and winning one within his first two seasons. Lawrence has long looked like the No. 1 overall pick in whichever draft class he decides to come out in and it would be a major blow to the team on the clock first next year if he doesn’t leave for the pros after the upcoming college campaign. Vegas has Lawrence as a massive, -400 favorite to be the top overall draft pick in the 2021 class, with Ohio State QB Justin Fields behind him at +500 and Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell is a distant third at +1200.

You can find all the latest 2020 NFL Draft and rookie class props below, courtesy of SportsBetting.ag. Be sure to check back later in the week for picks and rookie projections from pro handicapper Jon Price of SportsInformationTraders.com. Click here if you haven’t seen the results from the 2020 NFL Draft yet, as you can the pick-by-pick draft order from each of the seven rounds:

2020 NFL Draft Rookie Statistical Totals