The NFC South is the weakest division in the NFL heading into the 2023 regular season. There is an argument to be made that the AFC South might be worse, but for this writer’s money, the NFC South is the league’s bottom-feeder.
Derek Carr’s status as the best quarterback in the division is all fans need to know about why the NFC South is so unbelievably lackluster.
First-overall pick Bryce Young has looked the part of a top draft choice in training camp, but it is far-fetched to expect him to come in and win a division title for the Carolina Panthers as a rookie. However, if ever there was a division wherein he could succeed in putting together a sub-.500 season and still make the playoffs, it would be the 2023 NFC South.
Let’s take a look at how each team in this division might fare in the coming season:
1. Atlanta Falcons: 10-7
The Atlanta Falcons have, by far, the deepest and most talented offense in the division with Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson being just a few of their young players that could make a huge difference for the team in 2023.
Even average play from second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder may prove to be enough for Atlanta to win the NFC South given the plethora of weapons at his disposal.
One critical factor in picking a team to climb the ranks and win a division is strength of schedule. According to CBS Sports: “The easiest strength of schedule belongs to Atlanta at .417. The Falcons only play four 2022 playoff teams, which is the lowest number a team can play in a season based on the current scheduling formula.”
Their weak schedule paired with the below-average competition in the NFC South is a great recipe for success for the Falcons as they begin their 2023 campaign.
Free agent acquisitions were also a major factor in making Atlanta our pick to win the NFC South. Some of their notable offseason additions include safety Jessie Bates, defensive tackle Calais Campbell, wide receiver Mack Hollins, and quarterback Taylor Heinicke.
The Falcons’ offensive line should also be considered one of the top units in the league and should prove to be a key asset for the team as they look to improve next season. Atlanta managed to retain right tackle Kaleb McGary, which helped maintain continuity in their front five.
Atlanta ran the ball more than any other team last season, and the rock-solid play of their offensive line was a major component of that strength. The addition of Hollins, a receiver known for his run-blocking ability, will give Atlanta yet another wrinkle in the ground game.
After a 2022 season where the Falcons hosted the best rushing attack in the NFL, expectations are high for their running backs heading into 2023.
Nonetheless, the Falcons’ success in 2023 will still hinge on Ridder’s ability to distribute the ball to his playmakers. Offensively, there is talent all over the field, but their defense is only okay, and should strive for as much improvement as possible in the coming season.
2. New Orleans Saints: 9-8
Many pundits have the New Orleans Saints pegged as a dark horse candidate that could make a lot of noise in 2023.
Frankly, I do not see it. The team signed quarterback Derek Carr in the offseason, giving them the most established signal caller in the division, but if fans know anything about the 32-year-old quarterback, it is that he consistently comes up short in key situations.
Saints star running back Alvin Kamara is facing a likely suspension from the league for his part in a 2022 altercation, and he could miss two to six games depending on how severe the league’s punishment proves to be.
If Kamara is indeed suspended, his loss would be a monumental problem for New Orleans, despite their offseason efforts to shore up their stable of running backs by signing Jamaal Williams in free agency and drafting Kendre Miller.
Their receiving corps will be led by second-year receiver Chris Olave, but after his top spot on their depth chart, there are nothing but question marks. Michael Thomas has played in 10 games over the last two seasons and is 30 years old heading into the Saints’ 2023 campaign. It is possible that he has lost a step, and even if he hasn’t, it seems unlikely that he will stay healthy.
Defensively, the Saints are solid, but very top-heavy and older than most teams around the league. Last season, New Orleans ranked 29th in average age (26.8 years). Only the Patriots, Cardinals, and Buccaneers had older rosters.
Head Coach Dennis Allen is another unknown commodity for the Saints. Allen has a 12-37 record in 49 games as a head coach in the NFL but, because the division is so weak, the Saints should have every opportunity to eke out a NFC South title by the skin of their teeth.
3. Carolina Panthers: 7-10
Carolina is one of the most fascinating teams in the NFL ahead of the 2023 season. After trading up to the first-overall pick to take quarterback Bryce Young, it seems that the Panthers have finally found “their guy” to lead the beleaguered franchise to new heights.
However, their acquisition of Young came with a steep price tag. They gave up wideout D.J. Moore, multiple first-round picks, and two future second-round picks to land the promising yet still unproven signal caller.
Young has everything a coach could ever want in a quarterback, except size. At 5-foot-10 and 204 pounds, it will be interesting how the 22-year-old quarterback adapts to the NFL.
So far in training camp, Young has looked excellent. His passes are accurate, he has consistently shown himself to be extremely intelligent and can throw the ball with anticipation and touch. But, who exactly is he throwing to?
The Panthers receiving corps includes veterans Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, Terrace Marshall, Laviska Shenault, and rookie Jonathan Mingo. This is a deep and talented group, to be sure, but one that is missing a true go-to option. It is possible that Mingo could blossom into a legitimate number-one target, but it will likely take some time beyond the 2023 season to see his development through.
Carolina signed running back Miles Sanders to a four-year, $25 million deal in free agency, and it has been rumored that he could be in line for a three-down workload and see significant opportunities in the passing game.
The Panthers’ defense is one of the youngest in the NFL, headlined by pass rushers Brian Burns and Derrick Brown, and rising cornerback Jaycee Horn.
Frack Reich will serve as Carolina’s head coach and should provide the Panthers with a respectably solid foundation for their up-and-coming roster. Many believed he was scapegoated in Indianapolis after Andrew Luck’s retirement in 2019 threw the Colts’ quarterback situation into chaos. Pairing Reich with Young is a great start for an organization that has struggled to find a consistently competent signal caller for a few years.
Carolina will be a fun team to watch in 2023 but is likely a year or two away from actual contention.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-13
Tampa Bay has the potential to be a complete dumpster fire in 2023. Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield sit atop the Buccaneers’ depth chart at quarterback, which will not inspire much confidence in Tampa Bay’s fanbase heading into the new season. Trask has not started a single game in his career and Mayfield is on his fourth team in as many years.
Mike Evans is the team’s top receiver, but at 29 years old, he could be over the hill sooner rather than later. Evans is a pass-catcher who operates at his best deep downfield and he needs his quarterback to be extremely accurate to be successful. Mayfield has shown to be best on intermediate throws, but he struggled to throw the deep ball last season. Mayfield’s average depth of target dropped to just 7.1 yards last season, all while he completed only 60% of his passes.
The Buccaneers’ defense will have to carry Tampa Bay, but their age, as previously mentioned, will present problems for their efficacy as a top unit. Their first team will need to stay healthy for all 17 regular season games for the Buccaneers to live up to their true potential on the defensive side of the ball.
Overall, this team is lacking top-level talent at the most important position in the pass-first NFL. If Tampa Bay gets off to a slow start, don’t be surprised if the Buccaneers enter a fire sale before the trade deadline. Tampa Bay is also a dark horse to be in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes during the 2024 draft, so a full-on tank isn’t entirely out of the question.
Could any teams pose a problem for the Chiefs in a Super Bowl LVIII matchup?
None of these teams are likely to pose a threat to Kansas City in a potential Super Bowl LVIII matchup. There will most likely be only one playoff team from this group in 2023, and none of these teams are anywhere close to legitimate championship contention.
The NFL is a quarterback-centric league and, at the moment, none of these teams have a signal-caller that can go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes. Of course, that could change in the future with Bryce Young or if the Buccaneers are able to secure Caleb Williams by having the worst record in the league, but any suppositions at this point are strictly hypothetical.
