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The Independent UK

National

Joe Sommerlad and Matt Mathers

Next Tory leader odds: Who could replace Boris Johnson?

Boris Johnson Carrie Johnson Jeremy Hunt Liz Truss Rishi Sunak Sue Gray Tom Tugendhat Partygate (Event) Smarkets Westminster

Following weeks of fevered speculation, Sir Graham Brady has announced that there will be a confidence vote on Boris Johnson’s premiership.

The ballot will be held this evening after the threshold of 54 letters submitted to the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers was met.

If the prime minister loses the vote then a leadership contest will be triggered and the Conservative Party will choose his successor.

The list of runners and riders to replace Mr Johnson has fluctuated over the past few months, with MPs like Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, seeing his fortunes decline amid the fallout from revelations about his family’s tax status and wealth.

Despite his recent woes, punters have not fully turned against Mr Sunak, who remains in the top five MPs most likely to take over the reins from Mr Johnson.

According to Betfair Exchange, Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary, is now the favourite to replace the PM on 9/2.

Mr Hunt, who has also served as foreign secretary, has been very visible in the media of late, giving interviews to a number of outlets, talking about his new book and the future of the Conservative Party.

In one interview with The Sunday Times Magazine, he warned his colleagues that the Tories have a "big mountain to climb" if they are to win the next general election following the Partygate scandal.

Jeremy Hunt is favourite to replace PM (PA)

Mr Hunt, who came second to Mr Johnson in a 2019 leadership contest, refused to rule out another tilt at the top job but cautioned that it was not the right time for a leadership contest due to the war in Ukraine.

“But I would be very open with you that I don’t rule out a return in the future,” he added.

Liz Truss, the current foreign secretary long touted as a future leader, is in second place on odds of 7/1.

Mr Truss, the MP for South West Norfolk, saw her stock rise after building a reputation as someone who could get a job done, securing a series of mini trade deals during her tenure as international trade secretary.

“Fizz with Liz” had been a phrase associated with the foreign secretary amid reports earlier this year that she hosted MPs in her parliamentary office in a bid to schmooze possible backers.

Liz Truss has earned a reputation as someone who can get a job done (REUTERS)

Her threats to overwrite parts of the controversial Northern Ireland protocol as well as her sanctions response to Russia over Ukraine went down well with some Conservative backbenchers.

More recently, however, Downing Street has moved to distance itself from the foreign secretary's harsh rhetoric on the protocol and she has been criticised for what some have described as leadership posturing during a crisis.

Tom Tugendhat, the MP for Tonbridge and Malling and chair of the foreign affairs committee whose stock has steadily risen in recent weeks, is in third place on 8/1.

Mr Tugendhat became the first to announce he intends to stand for leader should Mr Johnson be given the boot, making his declaration in January.

Tom Tugendhat MP has already announced he will run if Johnson is ousted (PA Archive)

The former soldier said: “I think I’m making it pretty clear that I think that it’s up to all of us to put ourselves forward. And it’s up to the electorate, in the first case parliamentary colleagues, and in the second case the party, to choose.

“I think it’s a position of absolute integrity to say that of course you should offer yourself to the electorate if you think you can do it. Of course you should talk to colleagues and see if you can get a group together, and if you can get a group together you should go for it.”

Mr Tugendhat’s ambitions might not be supported by everyone in the party, but they could secure him a plum job in a future cabinet.

He shares third place with Penny Mordaunt, the MP for Portsmouth North and international trade minister and a key figure in the 2016 Leave campaign in the EU referendum.

Penny Mordaunt was a key player in the campaign to take the UK out of the EU (PA Wire)

Ms Mordaunt might be viewed as an outside bet but she is likely to attract support. Her recent work has included leading efforts to secure economic pacts with American states and she is considered a strong speaker and on top of her brief in her Commons appearances.

Mr Sunak, the MP for Richmond (Yorkshire), is in fourth on 9/1. The chancellor recently insisted that, contrary to media reports, he had never contemplated resigning over his Partygate fine.

Rishi Sunak’s stock has fallen after revelations about his family’s wealth and tax status (PA Wire)

He is one place ahead of Ben Wallace, the defence secretary who has been widely praised for his performance during Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, who is on 12/1.

Mr Wallace has won admirers in Westminster for his straight-talking and straight-forward approach to politics, particularly among Tory MPs who pressed for the UK to increase its defence spending although cuts to the size of the army remain a cause for concern.

Mr Wallace, who served in the Scots Guard, remains a key voice in the UK’s response to Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine and this increased exposure could assist any leadership bid.

Ben Wallace has won plaudits for his performance during the war in Ukraine (PA Wire)

Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary and MP for Stratford-on-Avon, is second from bottom on BetFair’s list on 17/1.

Sajid Javid, the health secretary, and Bromsgrove MP is on 19/1. His frontline political future was in doubt when he quit as chancellor in February 2020 just six months into the job after No 10 told him to sack all of his advisers. But Mr Javid has bounced back since June 2021 as health secretary.

In the 2019 leadership contest, he proposed cutting the top rate of income tax and he was also reported last month to be among those against a windfall tax on oil and gas producers.

With some in the party calling for lower taxes, this could chime with Mr Javid’s instincts and help boost his chances.

Nadhim Zahawi is 17/1 to replace the PM (PA Wire)

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “Boris Johnson will face a vote of confidence from his Conservative MPs today after the motion was triggered this morning.

“The prime minister, who was booed during a service for the Queen’s platinum jubilee on the weekend, is 2/5 to win the vote of no confidence, like his predecessor Theresa May did in 2018, however, he is odds-on at 5/6 on Betfair Exchange to leave No 10 this year.

“Jeremy Hunt is the 9/2 favourite to replace Johnson as Conservative leader with Liz Truss 7/1 and Tom Tugendhat 8/1.”

MrJohnson’s leadership woes were triggered by the “Partygate” scandal.

Sajid Javid has previously run for the top job (PA Wire)

Veteran Whitehall civil servant Sue Gray finally delivered her report into the string of lockdown-breaking social events that occurred behind the scenes in Westminster in May, June, November and December 2020 and April 2021, while the rest of the country was pulling together, making personal sacrifices and observing strict rules to fend off Covid-19.

“There were failures of leadership and judgement by different parts of No 10 and the Cabinet Office at different times,” she wrote.

“Some of the events should not have been allowed to take place. Other events should not have been allowed to develop as they did.”

Her inquiry had been delayed by the Metropolitan Police launching an investigation of its own based on the evidence she had collected, which ultimately led to 83 individuals receiving 126 fixed-penalty notices, the PM, his wife Carrie Johnson and chancellor Rishi Sunak among their number and forced to fork over £50 each.

Mr Johnson has repeatedly attempted to ride out the storm of indignation, protesting his innocence with credulity-straining excuses and brazenly rejecting calls to step aside despite being found to have broken his own laws in office.

But he is not out of the woods yet. He must still appear before the Commons privileges committee to answer questions about whether he knowingly misled parliament over Partygate, having regularly denied holding any prior knowledge about what went on.

Many of his own MPs, meanwhile, remain incensed and are unconvinced by his message that the country must move on and allow him to focus on supporting Ukraine and addressing the cost of living crisis.

Tory MPs are also concerned about upcoming by-elections in Tiverton and Honiton in Devon and Wakefield in West Yorkshire, which polling over the weekend suggested the party is on course to lose.

According to Betfair, Mr Johnson is 2/5 to win a vote of confidence in his leadership of the Tory party after the motion was triggered this morning. However, he is odds-on at 5/6 to leave No 10 this year.