Bookmakers have shortened the odds on Boris Johnson being replaced as prime minister as outrage over the “Partygate” scandal refuses to die down.
Veteran Whitehall civil servant Sue Gray has finally delivered her report into the string of lockdown-breaking social events that occurred behind the scenes in Westminster in May, June, November and December 2020 and April 2021, while the rest of the country was pulling together, making personal sacrifices and observing strict rules to fend off Covid-19.
“There were failures of leadership and judgement by different parts of No 10 and the Cabinet Office at different times,” she wrote.
“Some of the events should not have been allowed to take place. Other events should not have been allowed to develop as they did.”
Her inquiry had been delayed by the Metropolitan Police launching an investigation of its own based on the evidence she had collected, which ultimately led to 83 individuals receiving 126 fixed-penalty notices, the PM, his wife Carrie Johnson and chancellor Rishi Sunak among their number and forced to fork over £50 each.
Mr Johnson has repeatedly attempted to ride out the storm of indignation, protesting his innocence with credulity-straining excuses and brazenly rejecting calls to step aside despite being found to have broken his own laws in office.
But he is not out of the woods yet and must still appear before the Commons Privileges Committee to answer questions about whether he knowingly misled Parliament over Partygate, having regularly denied holding any prior knowledge about what went on.
Many of his own MPs, meanwhile, remain incensed and are unconvinced by his message that the country must move on and allow him to focus on supporting Ukraine and addressing the cost of living crisis.
At the time of writing, 28 Conservatives have openly called for Mr Johnson’s resignation – including former attorney-general Jeremy Wright – and 16 have admitted to sending letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady’s 1922 Committee of axe-wielding backbenchers.
A total of 54 would be required to trigger a vote of no confidence in the Conservative Party leader and Andrew Bridgen MP, for one, has said he believes the true tally in Sir Graham’s hands is “close” to that number, representing 15 per cent of the 359 Tories in the Commons.
Two senior members of Parliament have meanwhile said that a loss in the upcoming by-elections in Tiverton and Honiton in Devon and Wakefield in West Yorkshire could inspire more Conservatives to reach for their feather quills.
The betting site Smarkets now believes that there is a 62 per cent chance of Mr Johnson facing a no-confidence vote this year.
Should that happen, the company forecasts an extremely close vote that would see the PM forced from office, seeing that result as 53 per cent likely.
All of which means there is only a 41 per cent probability of Mr Johnson clinging to power into 2024, the latest point at which he could face another general election, placing him at his weakest since just prior to the local elections of early May.
As to who might succeed him, former health secretary Jeremy Hunt, who recently published a book on NHS reform, is at an all-time-high price of 15 per cent, foreign secretary Liz Truss is on 12 per cent and Tom Tugendhat on 11 per cent.
Mr Sunak, once a clear favourite, has recovered after being it a string of accusations about his personal wealth, rebounding from five per cent to nine per cent.
Patrick Flynn, Smarkets’ political analyst, commented: “There was a prevailing sense among political journalists, and the betting markets, that Boris Johnson’s position as Conservative leader looked more secure after the damp squib Sue Gray report, with the chance of the prime minister leaving his post falling from 36 per cent to 22 per cent after its publication.
“However, a trickle of public criticism of Johnson from Conservative MPs over the last week has now turned into a stream, and rumours are abound in Westminster that the threshold of 54 letters requesting a vote of no-confidence in the PM has been reached.
“Momentum seems to be moving in one direction, and a confidence vote could turn wavering MPs against the prime minister. MPs, especially those in marginal constituencies, may fear that if they don’t get rid of Johnson this year, they may end up with an unpopular leader taking them into a general election, potentially putting their seats at risk.”
Another bookmaker, Coral, responded to the Gray report by placing Mr Johnson at 5/2 to survive the furore, with spokesman John Hill saying there was only a 28 per cent likelihood of him being forced out of No 10.
The betting firm has listed his most likely challengers as Ms Truss (6/1), Mr Hunt (13/2), Mr Tugendhat (13/2), Penny Mordaunt (9/1), Ben Wallace (10/1), Sajid Javid (12/1), Mr Sunak (14/1), Nadhim Zahawi (16/1) and Michael Gove (20/1).
Star Sports meanwhile puts the chance of a no-confidence vote being triggered this year at 2/5 and likewise lists Mr Hunt and Ms Truss as the PM’s best-placed possible successors at 5/1.
