Bookmakers have lengthened the odds on Boris Johnson being replaced as prime minister following outrage over the “Partygate” scandal regarding a string of lockdown-breaking social events that occurred behind the scenes in Westminster in May, June, November and December 2020 and April 2021.
Whitehall mandarin Sue Gray has now delivered her long-delayed report on the gatherings to the PM and a version of it has been released, albeit in a heavily-redacted form at the request of the Metropolitan Police, now carrying out an investigation of its own.
Ms Gray’s 12-page “update” on the “Partygate” scandal blasted “failures of leadership and judgement” in Downing Street and the Cabinet Office, describing the behaviour of some personnel as “difficult to justify”.
In a scathing comment on the culture at No 10 under Mr Johnson’s leadership, the senior civil servant wrote: “Some of the gatherings in question represent a serious failure to observe not just the high standards expected of those working at the heart of government but also of the standards expected of the entire British population at the time”.
Her report also revealed that Mr Johnson’s birthday celebration is among a dozen gatherings being investigated by Scotland Yard, as is an alleged party in the prime minister’s private flat.
The PM’s future is very much thought to hinge on the reaction to Ms Gray’s verdict among his own Tory backbenchers and their constituents.
Addressing the House of Commons on Monday afternoon, Mr Johnson said he “accepts Sue Gray’s general findings in full” and “above all her recommendation that we must learn from these events and act now”.
He said he was “sorry for the things we simply didn’t get right and also sorry for the way that this matter has been handled”.
“I get it, and I will fix it,” he added. “I want to say to the people of this country I know what the issue is. It is whether this government can be trusted to deliver, and I say ‘yes we can be trusted to deliver’.”
But, according to the Betfair Barometer, which takes odds from Betfair Exchange to generate a percentage chance, the PM has only a 12 per cent likelihood of resigning this February (giving odds of 7/1 on that happening) and just a 30 per cent chance of facing a vote of no confidence from his own MPs, who appear to be supportive of his efforts to survive the crisis at this stage.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak is the favourite to replace Mr Johnson if there is a leadership contest, narrowly ahead of foreign secretary Liz Truss, rated 13/5 and 5/1 respectively by Betfair at the time time of writing.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “Sue Gray’s report being published may not mean the work party is immediately over for Boris Johnson with the Betfair Barometer giving him just a 12 per cent chance or odds of 7/1 to resign before the end of 28 February.
“However, a vote of no confidence in February looks more likely, with the Betfair Barometer giving the PM a 30 per cent chance or odds of 12/5 to face the wrath of his peers.
“Punters on Betfair Exchange are backing Rishi Sunak to swap No11 for No10 and he’s the clear 13/5 favourite to replace Johnson, ahead of Liz Truss who is next at 5/1 and Jeremy Hunt is 6/1.”
According to Oddschecker, a comparison site compiling odds from British bookmakers, Mr Sunak is 21/10 to be the next PM, while Ms Truss is 41/5.
Senior backbencher Jeremy Hunt – who lost out to Mr Johnson at the Tory leadership contest in 2019 – is 19/2 with several bookies, while Cabinet minister Michael Gove is further outside the top three with several firms.
Two-thirds (66 per cent) of voters – including 42 per cent of those who backed Tories at the last election – polled by Savanta ComRes said Mr Johnson should resign over the party issue, up 12 points on a similar survey in December.
Conservatives have admitted that backbenchers have been having conversations for several weeks about how to replace Mr Johnson in 2022 following a turbulent couple of months that has seen him under fire over “Tory sleaze” in the Owen Paterson affair, the awarding of lucrative Covid PPE contracts and the funding of the costly redecoration of his own Downing Street flat.
One “red wall” MP told The Independent Mr Johnson’s opponents in the party could easily gather the 54 signatures required for Sir Graham Brady’s 1922 Committee to initiate a vote of no confidence – but they will not move until they have dozens more behind his removal.
Allies of Mr Sunak are said to have been sounding out fellow Tory MPs for support for a leadership bid if a contest were to take place.
Ms Truss has also reportedly been “quietly wooing” fellow Conservatives in recent weeks in the event of a contest, but a spokesperson for the foreign secretary said “she meets MPs regularly to discuss foreign policy, and previously trade policy”.
According to regular ConservativeHome surveys, she remains the most popular Cabinet member among Tory supporters. She maintains her commanding lead over other ministers – a position she has held for over a year – with a net satisfaction of +82.
However, the latest poll numbers suggest that the chancellor is the most popular choice to take over at No 10 with the wider public.
A survey by research firm Redfield & Wilton found that 43 per cent of adults surveyed said Mr Sunak would make a better prime minister than Mr Johnson.
By comparison, only 23 per cent of voters said Ms Truss would make a better PM.
