Britain’s bookmakers are currently scrambling to determine the odds on our next prime minister after Liz Truss’s dramatic departure from Downing Street following what must surely be one of the most disastrous premiership’s in world history.
Ms Truss met with Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the powerful 1922 Committee of backbenchers on Thursday lunchtime, presumably to determine whether there was any hope of saving herself, before taking to the dreaded lectern outside No 10 just after 1.30pm to announce that she was stepping down after just 45 days in power.
Her resignation came after a night of chaos in which her home secretary Suella Braverman abandoned ship and a particularly chaotic Commons vote on fracking saw accusations of Tory MPs being physically manhandled into voting with the government amid confusion over whether or not a vote of confidence was taking place and whether or not chief whip Wendy Morton and her deputy Craig Whittaker had also quit their posts.
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All of which followed hot on the heels of her being forced into a series of embarrassing economic U-turns when her “mini-Budget” spooked world financial markets and tanked the pound, the sacking of chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and his replacement with Jeremy Hunt, who moved swiftly to tear up what remained of her fiscal programme and her credibility.
Mr Hunt has ruled himself out of the running to succeed Ms Truss, as has Michael Gove, defence secretary Ben Wallace and foreign secretary James Cleverly, with a new leader due to be chosen within a week, while Commons leader Penny Mordaunt has urged Conservatives to “keep calm and carry on” in the interim.
Now seemingly a two-horse race between Rishi Sunak and Ms Mordaunt after Boris Johnson’s late withdrawal on Sunday night, Betfair Exchange is currently offering odds of 25/1 on Mr Sunak, the former chancellor defeated in this summer’s leadership contest to succeed Mr Johnson but whose dire warnings about Ms Truss’s “fairy tale” tax slashing agenda were more than borne out by subsequent events.
Ms Mordaunt, who is yet to receive the required 100 nominations to partake in the leadership contest, is 20/1 to succeed Ms Truss. Meanwhile, Mr Johnson is 8/1 to serve in Mr Sunak’s Cabinet, while he is 4/1 to work under Ms Mordaunt.
Coral also has Mr Sunak at 1/25 to win with Ms Mordaunt on 9/1.
“With well over the required 100 nominations on his side, it now looks like Rishi is heading to No 10 to replace Liz Truss,” said Coral spokesman John Hill.
“We make him as short as 1/25 to be elected so it would be one of the biggest surprises in political betting history if that did not prove to be the case.”
William Hill likewise puts Mr Sunak way out in front at 1/50 and Ms Mordaunt on 12/1.
Offering percentage probabilities on who might be the next Conservative leader and PM, Smarkets placed Mr Sunak at a whopping 97.09 per cent on Monday morning, with Ms Mordaunt on just 2.08 per cent, although this is subject to frequent change.
