Britain’s bookmakers are currently scrambling to determine the odds on our next prime minister after Liz Truss’s dramatic departure from Downing Street following what must surely be one of the most disastrous premiership’s in world history.
Ms Truss met with Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the powerful 1922 Committee of backbenchers on Thursday lunchtime, presumably to determine whether there was any hope of saving herself, before taking to the dreaded lectern outside No 10 just after 1.30pm to announce that she was stepping down after just 45 days in power.
Her resignation came after a night of chaos in which her home secretary Suella Braverman abandoned ship and a particularly chaotic Commons vote on fracking saw accusations of Tory MPs being physically manhandled into voting with the government amid confusion over whether or not a vote of confidence was taking place and whether or not chief whip Wendy Morton and her deputy Craig Whittaker had also quit their posts.
All of which followed hot on the heels of her being forced into a series of embarrassing economic U-turns when her “mini-Budget” spooked world financial markets and tanked the pound, the sacking of chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and his replacement with Jeremy Hunt, who moved swiftly to tear up what remained of her fiscal programme and her credibility.
Mr Hunt has already ruled himself out of the running to succeed Ms Truss, as has Michael Gove and foreign secretary James Cleverly, with a new leader due to be chosen within a week, while Commons leader Penny Mordaunt has urged Conservatives to “keep calm and carry on” in the interim.
Betfair Exchange has been quickest on the draw and is currently offering odds of 4/6 on Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor defeated in this summer’s leadership contest to succeed Boris Johnson but whose dire warnings about Ms Truss’s “fairy tale” tax slashing agenda were more than borne out by subsequent events.
Mr Johnson himself is at 3/1 to make a sensational return to power, followed by Ms Mordaunt on 9/2 and defence secretary Ben Wallace, always a reluctant nominee, at 39/1.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “Odds on Boris Johnson to make a sensational return to No 10 continue to tumble with the former prime minister now second-favourite at 3/1, having been 30/1 on Thursday, to be the next Tory leader.
“Johnson is believed to be privately urging MPs to back him in his bid to reclaim his role as Tory leader, despite resigning just three months ago. Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak is the 8/11 odds-on favourite to succeed Truss, who he lost out to in the Tory leadership last month, with Penny Mordaunt 9/2.”
Mr Sunak is also the odds-on favourite with Paddy Power, priced at 8/11 to be the UK’s third prime minister of the year.
Paddy Power puts Mr Johnson at 9/2 (he was 14/1 on Thursday afternoon), Ms Mordaunt at 11/4 and Mr Wallace at 16/1.
William Hill likewise puts Mr Sunak out in front in the race to succeed Ms Truss at 4/5, ahead of Mr Johnson at 6/4, Ms Mordaunt at 5/1, Mr Wallace at 20/1 and international trade secretary Kemi Badenoch at 66/1.
Spokesperson Lee Phelps said: “It seemed inevitable and it’s finally happened as Liz Truss has announced that she’s stepping down as prime minister after just 45 days in office.
“Rishi Sunak was the one many wanted to replace Boris Johnson in the first place and we make the former chancellor the favourite to step into the breach as next Conservative Party leader, ahead of Penny Mordaunt and Ben Wallace.”
Offering percentage probabilities on who might be the next Conservative leader and PM, Smarkets placed Mr Sunak at 53.3 per cent on Friday morning, followed by Mr Johnson on 27.4 per cent and Ms Mordaunt on 16.4 per cent, although this is subject to frequent change.
