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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
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Bryan Manning

Next Gen Stats has Terry McLaurin among NFL’s most reliable wide receivers

If you’ve watched the Washington NFL franchise over the last four seasons, you know how good wide receiver Terry McLaurin is. The 2019 third-round pick signed a three-year extension last summer, making him one of the NFL’s highest-paid receivers.

How did McLaurin repay Washington? In true McLaurin fashion, by getting better, regardless of the chaos around him.

In four NFL seasons, McLaurin has gone over 1,000 yards three times, barely missing it in his rookie season. Can you imagine McLaurin’s numbers if he had a franchise quarterback? McLaurin has played with 10 quarterbacks in his NFL career.

Due to Washington’s lack of success and inconsistent quarterback play, McLaurin hasn’t always gotten the respect he deserves. The Commanders know what they have in McLaurin. NFL teams recognize McLaurin’s greatness.

Next Gen Stats recently ranked the NFL’s 10 most reliable receivers using something called the CROE metric.

What is the CROE metric?

(CROE) metric, which measures the difficulty of completion using a number of factors, including separation from nearest defender, depth of target and speed. The players who qualify for this list and boast higher CROEs have consistently made difficult, unlikely catches more often than the rest.

Here’s what Next Gen Stats says about McLaurin:

  • Catch rate: 64.2%
  • Expected catch rate: 57.4%
  • Catch rate over expected (CROE): +6.8%

McLaurin just might be the most underrated receiver in the NFL.

Last season, he caught passes from a collection of QBs comprised of Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke and (in Week 18) Sam Howell — in other words, McLaurin shouldn’t have landed anywhere near this top 10. The fact that he did only reinforces the notion that he succeeds because of his own effort. Regardless of who was throwing to him in 2022, McLaurin was highly effective, catching 77 passes for 1,191 yards and five touchdowns. The changes under center should explain why his catch rate is lower than most on this list — the same was true of a higher-ranked rookie who saw his quarterbacks swapped twice during the season. Still, McLaurin posted more receiving yards over expected (274) than any other pass catcher on this list, ranking third in the NFL in that category.

Consider also that Washington’s QBs combined to post a 103.9 passer rating when targeting McLaurin, 20.2 points higher than they did when targeting other players on the team (83.7). McLaurin is as reliable as the rising and setting of the sun. And if he ever gets a legitimately good quarterback to play with in Washington, we might see that he’s only been scratching the surface of his potential.

Regardless of the metric, McLaurin always ranks among the NFL’s best.

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