Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
World
Emily Wind and Amy Remeikis (earlier)

BoM shifts to El Niño watch after La Niña officially declared over – as it happened

United States Australia United Kingdom Anthony Albanese Joe Biden ​​Rishi Sunak
The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed that the La Niña weather pattern is over.
The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed that the La Niña weather pattern is over. Photograph: Bianca de Marchi/AAP

What we learned today, Tuesday 14 March

Thanks for following along on the blog today, on what was a huge day of news. Here’s a wrap of the main highlights:

Updated

Ferry operator fined $75k over polo pony deaths

Spirit of Tasmania ferry operator TT-Line and the former Australian polo captain Andrew Williams have been fined a combined $90,000 over the deaths of 16 horses, AAP has reported.

The Spirit of Tasmania II docked in Port Melbourne, Melbourne, Wednesday, June 1, 2022. (AAP Image/Joel Carrett) NO ARCHIVING
The Spirit of Tasmania II Photograph: Joel Carrett/AAP

The polo ponies were discovered dead in their converted refrigeration transport trailer following an overnight Bass Strait crossing from Tasmania to Victoria in January 2018.

TT-Line was found guilty in October of 29 animal welfare law breaches, while Williams pleaded guilty in July to 17 counts of breaching the animal welfare act.

During sentencing in Burnie magistrates court on Tuesday, TT-Line was fined $75,000 and Williams $15,000.

The magistrate Leanne Topfer said although there was no intent on the part of TT-Line in relation to the outcome, the company did nothing to check whether the horses were correctly individually stalled.

She said Williams, who has been working with horses for three decades, failed in his duty to the animals.

TT-Line has appealed the guilty ruling in the supreme court of Tasmania.

Updated

Police charge man over 1992 cold case murder

Homicide Squad detectives have today charged a man in relation to the 1992 death of Annette Steward in Geelong West.

A 55-year-old man was transported from Western Australia last week and is now in custody in Victoria.

He has been charged with murder and will appear at Melbourne magistrates’ court on 20 March.

Annette Steward was found dead in her Geelong West property on 18 March 1992 – nearly 30 years ago.

In 2015 police offered a $1m reward for information in relation to the 29-year-old’s death.

Updated

It’s been a huge day, so you don’t want to miss Antoun Issa’s Afternoon Update with a snapshot of today’s biggest stories:

Nationals say Labor has dropped ball on kangaroo products industry

In some non-Aukus news, the Nationals leader, David Littleproud, has accused the government of dropping the ball on footy boots – saying Labor has missed the mark on supporting the nation’s kangaroo products industry.

Some context: sports brands Nike and Puma have reportedly announced they won’t use kangaroo leather in their football boots, while several American states are also planning to crackdown on kangaroo products.

Littleproud claimed the government had “been missing in action and had failed to fight for the industry”. He alleged that “animal activist” groups had spread “lies” and misinformation about the kangaroo industry.

Littleproud said in a statement:

Harvesting actually prevents kangaroos from overgrazing, dehydration and starvation. The consequence of Labor’s inaction will be poor animal welfare outcomes and more uncontrolled killing.

We know kangaroos can breed easily and are not a threatened species. The practical reality of import bans in the US would be detrimental to kangaroo populations in Australia.

Updated

Labor accuses Peter Dutton of using Aukus as ‘excuse’ to back NDIS cuts

Labor has accused Peter Dutton of backflipping on bipartisan support for the national disability insurance scheme (NDIS) and finding “an excuse” to slash supports, after Dutton linked cuts to funding Aukus nuclear submarines.

The government services and NDIS minister, Bill Shorten, made the comments in a statement to Guardian Australia after the opposition leader doubled down on his offer of Coalition support if Labor wanted to make cuts to the program.

Shorten responded that “defence spending comes out of the defence budget”:

It’s disappointing the Liberals are backflipping on their bipartisan support for the NDIS that the opposition leader committed to in October.

What Mr Dutton is making clear to the 575,000 NDIS participants is that the Liberals will always be looking for an excuse to slash their supports.

We are committed to reforming the NDIS and making sure every dollar gets to the people who need it most.

Shorten said the government would need to “get on top of things like provider fraud and waste” to make the NDIS sustainable, matters to be dealt with by the independent review “which includes an examination of sustainability and costs and will be reporting back by the end of the year”.

Updated

The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, has hit back at China’s response to Aukus, insisting that its criticisms of the nuclear-powered submarine deal are “not grounded in fact”.

The foreign minister, Penny Wong, in Adelaide.
The foreign minister, Penny Wong, in Adelaide. Photograph: Matt Turner/AAP

In an interview with Guardian Australia, Wong also signalled that she planned to make further visits to south-east Asia and the Pacific to reassure the region that Australia does not seek to escalate military tensions:

Updated

The Greens leader, Adam Bandt, is also weighing in on the costings of the Aukus deal, writing on Twitter that “$368 billion could end the social & affordable housing crisis in this country”:

Instead, Labor is buying nuclear submarines that won’t make our country safer.

There’s always enough money for war & billionaires and never enough for the people who need it.

Updated

The shadow defence minister, Andrew Hastie, just appeared on Afternoon Briefing to speak on the costings of the Aukus deal – an estimated $268bn to $368bn, or 0.15% of Australia’s GDP:

I was surprised by that figure, because this is such an expensive project we’re undertaking. Rishi Sunak, the UK Prime Minister, in San Diego … committed the UK to 2.5% of GDP.

We’ll ask the hard questions. And we’re concerned about the offsets that are being put against other defence programs … We want to know which services will [be] cut, what platforms and programs will be cut and what Australian industry businesses will be affected by the cuts?

The shadow minister for defence, Andrew Hastie, at Parliament House in Canberra on Tuesday.
The shadow minister for defence, Andrew Hastie, at Parliament House in Canberra on Tuesday. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Updated

Updated

Dennis Richardson is also asked about China’s accusation the deal is in breach of the non-proliferation treaty.

Jennett:

Australia, has it got the diplomatic weight to convince the world, as they now must, that it can be a safe partner in this? … Can Australia carry the day without damage to its international standing?

Richardson:

Yes, we can. Because the non-proliferation treaty from its very beginning envisaged the possibility, separating out nuclear power from nuclear explosions. The president has made it very clear that this is about a nuclear-powered submarine, not a nuclear-armed submarine. I think we have the non-proliferation credentials to carry this globally. I think China is engaging in a bit of empty rhetoric on this front.

Updated

Indonesia weighs in on Aukus

Indonesia’s foreign ministry has just issued the following statement on Aukus.

Close watchers of the issue will notice that, while Indonesia again urges Australia to put in place an effective verification mechanism, the statement is warmer than the country’s original response to the original Aukus announcement in 2021.

Today’s statement says:

Indonesia has been closely following the security partnership of Aukus, particularly the announcement on the pathway to achieve Aukus critical capability.

Maintaining peace and stability in the region is the responsibility of all countries. It is critical for all countries to be a part of this effort.
Indonesia expects Australia to remain consistent in fulfilling its obligations under the [Non-Proliferation Treaty] and IAEA Safeguards, as well as to develop with the IAEA a verification mechanism that is effective, transparent and non – discriminatory.

Updated

Now appearing on Afternoon Briefing is former defence department secretary and US ambassador Dennis Richardson.

Jennett:

Is this a credible plan? Do you see any holes in it?

Richardson:

Look, it’s certainly a credible plan, Greg. There’s still a lot of detail to fill in, but that is what you’d expect. I think the time frames particularly in terms of acquiring our own nuclear powered submarine in the 40s and credible. A time frame for acquiring the Virginia class in the early mid 30s, that is also credible. But a lot of work to do in the meantime.

Greg Jennett (Afternoon Briefing host):

How many kilos and how much highly enriched uranium is in a reactor as we move many years from now to having to safely dispose of it?

Richard Marles:

It’s not going to surprise you for me to [say] that I can’t tell you that, because that ends up being very classified information. But it’s a significant undertaking to deal with the reactors at the end of their life. And this will require a purpose-built facility in order to do that.

And we’re talking about the first reactor needing to be dealt with in the 2050s. So this is a long way into the future. But we need to be planning for that.

What we’ve made clear today is within the year we will announce a process by which that place will be identified so that we won’t identify the process here but we’ll announce the process for that and what that facility would look like.

Staying with the Aukus deal, the defence minister, Richard Marles, is appearing on the ABC’s Afternoon Briefing. He is being asked about a tweet in which China’s ambassador to the UN argued the deal is violating the objects and purpose of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty:

Asked if he will be attempting to try and dissuade China of that view, Marles said:

What we are doing is working with the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] to make sure that we are compliant with our non-proliferation obligations.

We said from the outset that was a fundamental precondition from an Albanese government walking down this path and it remains that. The IAEA in turn has made it clear a country running naval nuclear propulsion is not of itself violating non-proliferation obligations.

What matters is that you have a complete assuredness and transparent assuredness that the nuclear material is counted for in every moment in time and we can do that because we’re talking about a sealed nuclear reactor …

Updated

The Greens senator Jordon Steele-John has called the Aukus deal “a fundamental threat to Australian independence” in a series of Tweets published this afternoon.

The senator argued that the deal “will undermine the global effort to fight the climate crisis and unleash a regional arms race that only serves to enrich global arms manufacturers”.

Updated

Ben Doherty and Daniel Hurst have put together a fantastic explainer on the Aukus deal that is well worth a read:

Submarines an ‘outrageous assault on peace’, campaigners say

Anti-war campaigners have described Australia’s submarine announcement this morning as an “outrageous assault on peace”.

Dr Sue Wareham OAM, national president of the Medical Association for Prevention of War, says the decision to spend an “unimaginable” amount of $368bn on naval nuclear reactors represented “one of the lowest points in Australian democracy in living memory”.

The naval nuclear reactors for Australia, announced today, represent one of the lowest points in Australian democracy in living memory.

Unimaginable expenditure – up to $368bn – has been announced for a single weapons capability, submarines, in a decision that was made behind closed doors and is overflowing with risks, many of which have barely been acknowledged yet. They include very significant risks to health and healthcare for Australians.

Prime minister Albanese has betrayed his own people. Vulnerable Australians will suffer even more in order for such largesse to flow to the military-industrial complex.

Opposition leader Dutton has already indicated that the NDIS, a lifeline for hundreds of thousands of Australians with particular needs, might need to be attacked. Our healthcare system is in crisis in many areas.

Countless thousands of Australians have nowhere to live, and yet our biggest financial investments will be in preparing to join yet another war of choice, this time between the US and China.

Updated

Circling back to the Aukus deal, the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has shared a photo from a meeting with the US president, Joe Biden, following the announcement earlier this morning:

Commentary on the deal has continued to filter through on social media this afternoon. First up we have the minister for resources, Madeleine King, speaking on jobs:

Labor’s Senator Penny Wong highlighted the investment in South Australia, with the next-generation nuclear-powered submarines to be built at Osborne:

Meanwhile, the Greens Senator Janet Rice has spoken out against the deal:

Updated

BoM puts odds of an El Nino this year at 50:50

As flagged here earlier today, the Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed that the La Nina is over.

That was expected because the La Nina had been fading for some time, and other agencies had called its end already.

What is a bit of a surprise today, though, is that BoM is shifting straight to a so-called El Nino watch:

As the bureau says, oceanic and atmospheric indicators have returned to neutral levels and are likely to remain so through this southern autumn:

“However, there are some signs that El Niño could form later in the year,” it says, in explaining the switch.

This means there is a 50% chance of an El Niño in 2023.

During El Nino years, the equatorial winds that in neutral years blow from east to west tend to stall and ever reverse. Rainfall tends to shift away from eastern Australia (and eastern Indonesia, etc). Droughts, heatwaves and bushfires become a greater risk for large parts of Australia.

As BoM is keen to underscore, “an El Niño watch is not a guarantee that El Niño will occur, rather it is an indication that some of the typical precursors of an event are currently observed”.

We still have what meteorologists call the autumn “predictability gap” to clear, reflecting the limited accuracy climate models have at this time of year.

Still, the switch to a watch mode shows where those models are tilting now.

Updated

ASX plunges into red for 2023

The local share market has plunged into negative territory for the year as the turmoil from Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse in the United States continues, AAP reported earlier today.

At noon, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index had fallen 133.7 points, or 1.88%, to 6,975.1, while the All Ordinaries was down 141 points, or 1.93%, to 7,169.6.

The ASX200 tumbled to its lowest level since a 3 January selloff. It is now down one per cent since the start of the year, despite a 6.2% rally in January.

The index was also trading below its 200-day moving average, a key technical level.

Updated

Surge of autumn heat forecast for week ahead

A strong surge of autumn heat will make its way across the country in the second half of this week and into the early part of next week, as reported by Weatherzone.

The BoM has already forecast above-average temperatures for much of western, southern and south-east Australia from Thursday.

Weatherzone has reported that a large pool of hot autumn air will extend from WA’s Pilbara region down to the coastline of western South Australia:

In those areas, maximum temperatures in excess of 44°C can be expected … That heat will then drift eastwards, with NSW in the bullseye.

Meanwhile, temperatures nearing 40C may be seen in western Sydney on both Thursday and Saturday, with temperatures expected to reach 30C or higher in the days between.

UN urges Australia to support global food security

Australia is being urged to strengthen its support for global food security and stability in the Pacific, AAP has reported.

Delegates from the United Nations’ agriculture finance agency have met foreign affairs and trade officials in Canberra.

One of the delegation’s messages was Australians should be worried about food security, both in the region and globally.

The agency’s Ron Hartman said:

The cost of living is a key concern in developed and developing countries, and the cost of food, particularly healthy, nutritious food, is as much a concern here in Australia as it is for the developing world.

We’re here to try and respond to the demand from Pacific islands and other developing member states for more support, not through the handouts type approach, but support in terms of hand-ups.

We’re motivated by the concern that we’ve got over-escalating global food insecurity and want to make sure that we’re co-ordinating and partnering with Australian stakeholders as much as possible.

The group is in the region for a conference in Fiji.

Hartman said world peace and food security were interlinked, and Australians should be aware of what’s happening in the global food space, as well as in the Pacific.

We need to be doing more. There’s almost a perfect storm at the moment that is facing the global community.

Making sure that Australian expertise, knowledge and innovation is able to benefit those countries that are either less fortunate or more impoverished is really important.

Last week, the assistant trade minister, Tim Ayres, warned against Australia taking a narrow focus when negotiating trade agreements.

He told a major agricultural conference there was a risk that less-developed nations would be ignored if their interests weren’t considered.

Updated

Greens propose $200 vouchers to boost live music scene

Meanwhile, the NSW Greens are proposing vouchers for the state’s young people in a bid to revive the live music scene.

The Greens music spokeswoman Cate Faehrmann says young people could boost the state’s ailing live music sector if given $200 worth of vouchers, in a scheme similar to the government’s popular Dine and Discover program:

Music, arts and culture are a major driver of economic activity across NSW and for years these sectors have been treated with contempt by this government.

Under the proposal all young people aged between 18 and 25 would be given four $50 vouchers to spend on live music events. The money could be spent on any type of gig, including festivals, DJ sets or small acoustic gigs, as well as international artists.

It comes after Labor revealed data showing just 133 live music venues were still operating in NSW, after the COVID-19 pandemic and impact of lockout laws.

Creative industries took a battering during the pandemic, losing $130m in revenue, and a number of key live music venues closed for good.

There is certainly an appetite for live music in NSW and just last night, international artists Lorde, Florence and the Machine, and Bikini Kill all performed in Sydney.

- with AAP

Updated

Announcements continuing in lead up to NSW election

NSW premier Dominic Perrottet and opposition leader Chris Minns are continuing their rounds today, pitching to voters ahead of the NSW election on March 25.

Minns was in Sydney’s southwest, announcing Labor’s plan to put 500 early childhood workers on university or diploma scholarships.

The $22 million package would provide 500 scholarships over three years of up to $25,000 for bachelor degrees or diplomas, to fund paid professional development leave and to launch a new study into childhood delivery models.

Minns said:

We know that in NSW early childhood education centres, those with diplomas or a degree is about 45 per cent - in Victoria, it’s above 60 per cent.

We’ve been speaking to the peak bodies and they regard this as an essential investment in early childhood education.

The announcement was made in the electorate of Liberal-held East Hills - the state’s most marginal electorate after Minns’ own seat of Kogarah.

Meanwhile, Perrottet announced $2m in funding for services to help those dealing with miscarriage or the heartbreak of stillbirth.

The funds would go towards over-the-phone, in-person and online services for bereaved families.

The announcement comes after Perrottet’s wife Helen revealed she had suffered three miscarriages. The mother of seven said she had been working before the first loss and there was little consideration for the “horrific” grief she felt.

She told Nine News:

They said ‘you can take a week off or whatever but you have to take sick leave. It should be bereavement leave.

- with AAP

Updated

Third encephalitis virus death recorded in Victoria

Victoria has recorded its third death from the mosquito-borne Murray Valley encephalitis virus.

The health department on Tuesday confirmed the man, aged in his 70s, died earlier this month. Authorities believe he was potentially exposed to infected mosquitoes in the Shire of Campaspe, in Victoria’s north.

A spokesperson for the department sent condolences to the man’s family and urged people in affected areas to take caution:

People in areas experiencing increased mosquito activity should continue to take steps to protect themselves against mosquito bites – wearing long, loose-fitting, light-coloured clothing, using insect repellents, removing stagnant water around their home, and avoiding the outdoors when mosquitoes are observed, especially at dusk and dawn.

Murray Valley encephalitis virus and Japanese encephalitis virus in several LGAs in northern Victoria in recent months.

According to the state’s health department, most people infected with Murray Valley encephalitis virus do not have symptoms.

When they occur, symptoms may include fever, headache, nausea, vomiting and muscle aches, and in serious cases, people can develop meningitis or encephalitis.

Flooding expected to ease at Burketown

Record major flooding at Burketown in Queensland is expected to be easing, with minor flooding along the Nicholson, Gregory and Leichhardt rivers also easing.

The Queensland BoM said that showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast for the next few days along these catchment areas, but widespread significant rainfall is not expected.

Anecdotal information from Burketown suggests the river level was expected to have peaked above the 2011 record flood level of 6.78 metres on Sunday.

The river level along the Albert River at Burketown is expected to continue easing slowly over the next few days, but is likely to remain above the major flood level (6.00 m) during Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly longer.

The river level is expected to remain elevated through to at least the end of the week.

Updated

Disability royal commission publishes final progress report

The disability royal commission has published its seventh and final progress report, covering the six months from July-December, 2022.

The commission’s final report is due to the governor general by 29 September this year.

You can read the full report online.

Updated

Consumer sentiment remains grim as latest interest rate rise bites

Economic news out today is mostly fairly bleak, although it will likely be eclipsed by submarine coverage.

Consumers are in a funk and that dim outlook doesn’t look like brightening much as the full impact of the 350 basis-point increase in the Reserve Bank‘s interest rate won’t be felt for a while yet.

According to Westpac and the Melbourne Institute, their consumer sentiment index was unchanged at 78.5 in March, holding near its 30-year lows. It’s the second month in a row of a sub-80 reading, a back-to-back result that did not appear during either the Covid shock and the global financial crisis.

Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans said:

Runs of sub-80 reads have only been seen during the late 1980s/early 1990s recession and in the ‘banana republic’ period of concern in 1986, when the Australian dollar was in free-fall after the federal government lost its triple-A rating.

ANZ and Roy Morgan’s weekly gauge of consumer confidence, meanwhile, slumped to its lowest level since April 2020, after the RBA announced a 25bp increase in the cash rate in March.

Slightly curious numbers, though, had people with a mortgage improving their outlook although they are still the least confident of the housing cohorts. On the other hand, those who own their home outright and renters reported sharp decreases of 4.1pts and 7.9pts, respectively.

Inflation expectations also picked up in the survey.

Modestly more upbeat, though, was NAB‘s latest monthly survey of business confidence and conditions.

True, business confidence fell back below zero in February, continuing a recent period of volatility. But business conditions remained strong with little change in the elevated levels of key subcomponents including trading conditions and employment, NAB said.

The bank said:

Conditions remain elevated across industries and states, with consumer-facing sectors clustered at a high level of around +20 index points and business-facing sectors clustered around +10 index points.

Could consumers merely be grumpy but still spending regardless?

Labour-cost growth, meanwhile, picked up further from a brief low of 2.1% in December to be running at 2.8% in quarterly terms, NAB said.

NAB’s chief economist Alan Oster said:

Business conditions remained at a very high level in the history of the survey in February.

Overall, the survey confirms the ongoing resilience of the economy through the first months of 2023, though we continue to expect a more material slowdown in demand later in the year when the full effect of rate rises has passed through.

That almost sounds cheery ... unless, of course, there’s fallout from failing US banks or some unhappy response from China – our biggest trade partner by far - over that much-talked about subs deal.

Updated

Motorcyclist collides with emu in WA national park

A motorcyclist is in hospital with serious injuries after colliding with an emu in the Kalbarri national park, WA police have confirmed.

The collision reportedly occurred just before 8am this morning.

The man was rushed to Kalbarri hospital by St John WA, and it is understood that the national park, north of Geraldton, is currently closed.

Updated

Exclusion zone in Queensland town lifted

An emergency exclusion zone at Warwick, Queensland overnight has been revoked by police after a man was found dead inside a property.

Last night, police were called to a Warwick property following reports a man was observed with a firearm. No shots were fired and no threats were made, according to Queensland police, however an exclusion zone was declared to ensure community safety.

Around 8am this morning, police entered a residence where a 38-year-old man was found deceased. The exclusion zone was lifted shortly afterwards.

A report will be prepared for the coroner, and the man’s death is not being treated as suspicious.

This was the second emergency declaration in Queensland in recent days, with a separate man found dead in a residence near Townsville yesterday following a ten-hour standoff with police. Residents were warned to stay inside and lock their doors.

Lifeline 13 11 14 / Beyond Blue 1300 22 4636

Updated

MPs chosen for Victoria’s duck hunting inquiry

Both an Animal Justice party MP and a member of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party will sit on an inquiry into the future of duck shooting in Victoria.

Guardian Australia has been provided with a list of MPs chosen to sit on the select committee, which was announced at the same time the government approved a shortened duck hunting season last month, in response to the “increasingly contested” nature of the sport.

They include Animal Justice party MP, Georgie Purcell, a vocal critic of duck hunting, as well as Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MP, Jeff Bourman, who supports the sport.

Greens MP Katherine Copsey, Labor’s Sheena Watt, Ryan Batchelor and Michael Galea, Liberals Bev McArthur and Evan Mullholland and Nationals MP Melina Bath round out the committee.

Bath last week branded the inquiry a “charade”, as she believed it was a “foregone conclusion” that the Andrews government will ban duck hunting.

The committee is expected to hold hearings to listen to the views of hunting, animal welfare and regional community groups, before publishing its final report by 31 August.

A hunter and his dog in the Wimmera during duck season in 2021.
A hunter and his dog in the Wimmera during duck season in 2021. Photograph: Doug Gimesy

Updated

Oscar winner crowned Miss Moomba in 1984

Yesterday there was a ton of buzz around the 95th Academy Awards in Los Angeles, particularly the film Everything, Everywhere All At Once – which absolutely swept the awards. Among them was the best actress Oscar, awarded to Michelle Yeoh for her role in the film.

Now, archival footage has been published showing the award-winning actress’ connection to Australia. In 1984, she won a beauty pageant at Melbourne’s Moomba festival and was crowned Miss Moomba.

Updated

Sydney train disruptions continue

Sydneysiders have been hit with even more train delays today. A warning urging commuters to “allow plenty of extra travel time” was given after urgent signalling work at Broadmeadow and train repairs on the north shore line at Waitara caused delays across the network, Elias Visontay is reporting.

The new disruptions follow the network-wide shutdown last Wednesday which left every train parked for 90 minutes.

Meanwhile, reports have emerged that an internal Transport for NSW document from more than a year ago warned that Sydney trains’ digital radio system components were “obsolete” and fixing the problem was a priority.

Labor’s transport spokesperson Jo Haylen said:

The Liberal government was warned a year ago that components in the digital train radio system were already obsolete. They knew that this could put the whole train network at risk but not enough has been done because there is no accountability.

Passengers are yet again paying the price because no one knows who is in charge.

Following the recent disruptions, train drivers are reportedly going to get analogue hand-held radios as a backup in case communications are temporarily severed again.

Commuters at Sydney’s Town Hall station last week after trains ground to a halt shortly before the afternoon peak.
Commuters at Sydney’s Town Hall station last week after trains ground to a halt shortly before the afternoon peak. Photograph: Roni Bintang/Getty Images

Updated

Thank you to Amy for taking us through the morning- and what a massive morning it was! After the Aukus announcement and all the subsequent commentary, let’s take a step back at some of the headlines you might have missed this morning:

  • Overnight, King Charles delivered his first Commonwealth Day message as monarch from the pulpit at Westminster Abbey - a departure from previous messages from Queen Elizabeth II, which were traditionally pre-recorded. You can read his speech in full here.

  • Independent MPs Allegra Spender and Zali Steggall are pushing the government to include an absolute cap or an explicit objective that emissions must come down under the safeguard mechanism.

  • Vast tracts of Queensland’s northwest remain flooded as communities face a long wait to return to their homes and assess the damage, AAP reports. Residents desperate to begin the massive clean-up have been urged to be cautious, with a number of saltwater crocodiles spotted near inundated towns. Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk warned there would be heavy stock losses, and three-quarters of the houses in Burketown have water over the floorboards.

  • Meanwhile, the New South Wales Liberal party’s candidate for Swansea, Megan Anderson, has downplayed a comment she made denying climate change last week, calling it a “clumsy joke”.

We’ll continue to bring you the latest as the day continues.

Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese (L), with US president, Joe Biden, and UK PM, Rishi Sunak, at today’s Aukus announcement.
Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese (L), with US president, Joe Biden, and UK PM, Rishi Sunak, at today’s Aukus announcement. Photograph: Getty Images

Updated

Thank you to everyone for joining me this morning as we made our way through that tsunami of information. I am going to hand you over to Emily Wind now for the next little bit. I’ll be back when parliament resumes next week. Take care of you.

Updated

While we’re on the topic of China, Guardian Australia understands Australian officials contacted their counterparts in Beijing yesterday to offer a briefing on the Aukus plans, and that offer stands.

More broadly, Australian officials have been carrying out an extensive process of briefing countries in south-east Asia and the Pacific, some of which have shared the concerns about Aukus fuelling an arms race.

Australia has sought to reassure countries of the strategic rationale for the submarine plans, and the commitment not to have nuclear weapons.

Updated

Scott Morrison has responded to the Aukus agreement announcement on Instagram:

I commend the government and welcome the announcements made today that take the first steps to realising the historic Aukus agreement we conceived and established in government eighteen months ago in September 2021. The initiatives announced today are appropriately ambitious and consistent with the original aspiration, direction and intentions of the Aukus founders.

These bold initiatives will pose significant challenges for all parties, but especially Australia. Such challenges and demands were understood and envisaged when we put Aukus together. It was always going to require a transformative national effort. These challenges will be addressed by governments from both sides of politics for decades to come as they each do their part to steward this great initiative. I have no doubt this will continue in a strong spirit of bipartisanship and national unity. Aukus is bigger than any one individual, party, government or partner nation. Aukus has already altered the strategic calculus of the Indo-Pacific and will only continue to do so in the years ahead, supporting an enduring strategic balance in our region.

I particularly commend and thank all those within our defence and security services from all three nations who have worked so diligently as part of this eighteen month process that was initiated when we commenced Aukus . They have kept to the mission and produced a great result. Congratulations.

Updated

China slams 'blatant' Aukus deal

China’s mission to the United Nations has criticised the Aukus announcement, arguing it is a “blatant act” that “hurts peace and stability in the region”.

On Twitter, the Chinese diplomatic mission repeated Beijing’s longstanding claims - denied by Australia - that the agreement violates the objects of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

And it argued this “textbook case of double-standard will damage the authority and effectiveness of the international non-proliferation system”:

The irony of #AUKUS is that two nuclear weapons states who claim to uphold the highest nuclear non-proliferation standard are transferring tons of weapons-grade enriched uranium to a non-nuclear-weapon state, clearly violating the object and purpose of the NPT. [END QUOTE]

The Australian government has repeatedly pointed out its plans don’t breach the NPT. The three Aukus governments, pre-empting the criticism that China was likely to mount, said in their joint statement that they would “continue to work transparently” with the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure the “strongest non-proliferation precedent”. The Aukus statement said:

As a non-nuclear-weapon state, Australia does not – and will not – seek to acquire nuclear weapons;

Australia will not enrich uranium or reprocess spent fuel as part of this program;

Australia will not produce its own nuclear fuel for its [nuclear-powered submarines];

The United Kingdom and United States intend to provide Australia with nuclear material in complete, welded power units that will not require refuelling during their lifetime;

The nuclear fuel that Australia receives cannot be used in nuclear weapons without further chemical processing, which would require facilities that Australia does not have and will not seek; and

This initiative will occur within the framework of Australia’s Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) and Additional Protocol (AP) with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Updated

Why doesn’t Jim Chalmers extend the deal beyond 2027?

Chalmers:

There’s a fair bit to do between now and then. Four years away, when the deal was done, with our support, to give Western Australia its fair share of GST revenue, we proudly supported that deal. We have implemented in government. It’s meant that we have funded to multiple billions of dollars the other states to ensure that they aren’t worse off.

They know and you know that when the deal was first struck, there was a review built into it which is still some years away. We’ll turn our minds to it at the appropriate time.

You can tell the treasurer is in WA because most of the questions in this press conference is about the GST arrangement.

Chalmers is asked about comments from the Victorian treasurer, Tim Pallas, that the WA GST arrangement isn’t equitable:

Chalmers:

I say to Treasurer Pallas, he’s a friend of mine, someone who I have a heap of respect for, the GST deal ensures no state is worse off including Victoria. And that’s the deal that we committed to.

This is the undertaking we have given here in WA on multiple occasions. I don’t think I have been in WA in the last couple of years without being asked about it. And it’s an important opportunity for me to respond to some of the absolute rubbish that Michaelia Cash and others have been saying in recent days.

Today, the Commonwealth Grants Commission releases the new relatives for the GST allocation and I’m proud to say and pleased to say that instead of getting the ten cents in the dollar that WA would have been entitled to under the old regime – its lowest ever – WA will be getting 70 cents in the dollar and the difference between that is $5.6 billion next year.

This is a deal that we are committed to, this is a deal that we are proud of, this is a deal that ensures that we recognise that the Western Australian economy often keeps the world - wheels of the national economy turning.

This is a $5.6 billion thank you to the people of Western Australia for keeping the wheels of the national economy turning, not just in recent times, but before that as well.

I have said the premier McGowan and treasurer McGowan, I said publicly and privately here in WA, we don’t intend to change that deal. The Liberals are lying when they say that is the case.

There are regular reviews which happen all of the time and to treasurer Pallas and other friends and treasurers around the Australia, the current arrangements ensure that even as WA gets this funding that they deserve the other states aren’t worse off

Updated

Position on stage-three tax cuts unchanged, Chalmers says

OK cool, but we are rethinking the stage-three tax cuts right?

Right?

Jim Chalmers:

Our position on the tax cuts hasn’t changed. We’ve made it clear in other ways that we do need to find ways to make the budget more sustainable over time.

You know, the very modest but meaningful change that we announced a couple of weeks ago for example to superannuation, will make the budget a bit more sustainable over time. But we’ve got those five big pressures on the budget - defence is one of those. This is necessary spending. And we need to make sure that we can find ways to make the budget more sustainable more broadly.

So the stage-three tax cuts are part of that?

Our position on the tax cuts hasn’t changed.

Updated

How is Australia going to pay for it?

Jim Chalmers:

Well, Australia can’t afford not to do this. And this is a key investment. It’s a big investment.

But it’s an important investment which will deliver huge returns for our country, for our nation’s security and for its economy. In offsetting $9 billion over the forward estimates, we are not adding to the substantial pressure which is already on the budget.

Beyond that, we’ve already got the $24 billion attack class provision as the beginnings of offsetting what we can from the $50 billion to $58 billion cost over the coming decade.

We know that we’ve got substantial pressures on the budget. The big five fastest growing areas of spending on the budget are the interest costs on the Liberals’ $1 trillion debt that we inherited, the NDIS, aged-care, healthcare and defence.

What we’ve shown here is an ability to offset the cost of this over the forward estimates, partially offset the cost beyond that, but this is a game-changing investment. It will be worth every cent. When it comes to our national security, our national economy and the local economy of WA.

Updated

The treasurer Jim Chalmers is now speaking on the Aukus agreement from WA:

This is a big investment we’re announcing today but it has big returns as well. I talked about the $8 billion over 10 years in WA, $1 billion of that in the forward estimates, thousands of jobs for Western Australia and for the nation beyond.

The forward estimate cost of the whole program is $9 billion over the forward estimates.

That will be completely offset by defence, so that the combination of the $6 billion provision for the attack class plus $3 billion of additional offsets will mean that over the forward estimates this plan won’t add to the deficits over the four years of the forward estimates.

The ten-year cost is between $50 billion and $58 billion. Included or part of the offset for that will be the existing $24 billion provision for the attack class.

Over the life of the project, it will cost an average of 0.15% of GDP. That will average over the life of the project until the middle 2050s.

Today is not a day for partisan politics but it’s important to recognise what we provisioned in our budget is more substantial than our predecessors provisioned in theirs.

The costs we’re announcing today included some of the costs our predecessors did not provision for when it comes to sustainment and training and some of the other important elements of the cost that we are talking about today.

We’re being up-front about the cost of this. It is a big cost but it will deliver big returns for our national security and national economy and here in Western Australia as well.

Updated

Bureau of Meteorology set to declare an end to the triple La Niña

To some other news now

It’s been a long time coming but the Bureau of Meteorology is later today likely to formally declare an end to the La Niña event in the Pacific.

Conditions have been slowly drifting back to neutral conditions in the central equatorial Pacific for some time and the La Niña itself was never a very extreme one to start with.

Still, the fact that we had three La Niña years in a row meant that a lot of catchments were sodden to start with and it didn’t need record-breaking rain to trigger big floods. (Of course, we did have some record falls too.)

The US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration - which uses slightly different measures from our BoM - called an end to the La Niña last week.

Attention has been switching for some time to the prospect of La Niña’s opposite - an El Niño - forming in the Pacific later in the year. The models used by BoM continue to point in that direction at least for now.

La Niñas favour wetter than average conditions for much of Australia, and El Niños tilt conditions the other way. We won’t know for a couple of months whether an El Nino is certain but we can expect drier and hotter weather with the related risks of bushfires and heatwaves rather than floods.

Still, as we’ve seen in the Gulf region this week it’s still possible to get huge floods even with a waning La Niña.

It’s early days yet, but meteorologists will also be watching out for a late-season tropical cyclone (or two), with the possibility of one forming in the Coral Sea next week.

Meanwhile, many parts of eastern Australia might have felt as if summer had passed them by.

That could change in coming days with an extended spell of heat for parts of NSW in particular, with conditions even reaching ‘severe heatwave’ levels for parts of the state’s south coast.

Let’s hope the burst of warmth is not a precursor for what’s ahead next summer, whether or not an El Niño forms.

Updated

Nobel peace prize winner urges Australia to sign UN nuclear-ban treaty

Winner of the 2017 Nobel peace prize, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (Ican), has said that Australia’s decision to buy and build nuclear-powered submarines using highly-enriched uranium is both a major proliferation risk and could be seen internationally as a precursor to Australia acquiring nuclear weapons.

Ican argues that he “clearest signal that Australia could send to our region and the world” it does not intend to acquire nuclear weapons would be to sign the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons: the ban treaty that Ican has championed and to which 68 states around the world are now a party.

Australia’s acquisition of submarines fuelled by HEU undermines our commitment to non-proliferation. It goes against Australia’s past support and actions to reduce use and stocks of HEU, and negates Australia’s support for a proposed Fissile Material Cutoff treaty.

The particular capability of the planned submarines is to support the US in a war in northeast Asia. Whether with China, North Korea or Russia, there is an alarming risk of any such war escalating to use of nuclear weapons.

Nuclear-powered submarines, and their bases, would become high priority targets for conventional or nuclear attack from adversaries. We don’t need to escalate regional tensions with highly-enriched uranium powered submarines.

If Australia acquires nuclear-powered submarines it must unequivocally commit never to develop nuclear weapons, nor host another nation’s nuclear weapons. These are red lines we must not cross. The most effective assurance we can give would be to sign and ratify the UN TPNW.”

Updated

Coalition’s official response to Labor's Aukus announcement

The Coalition’s official response has been released:

The Coalition welcomes the government’s announcement of the next step in the Aukus partnership established by the Coalition government in 2021.

The concept of Aukus was first conceived by prime minister Morrison in 2019 with the development process commenced in 2020. Today’s announcement is an endorsement of the Coalition’s decision to pursue the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines.

It affirms the Coalition’s defence and national security strategy by enshrining the Aukus partnership as the centrepiece of our nation’s defence. The Aukus partnership will play a vital role in sustaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region for generations to come.

The Coalition will continue to seek further details regarding the prime minister’s announcement today, but will provide bipartisan support for the acquisition of nuclear powered submarines, which will radically transform Australia’s ability to defend ourselves and uphold our shared interests in preserving stability and peace for all nations in our region.

We firmly believe that the Aukus endeavour is too important to fail.

Aukus is a multi-generational nation-building task, commenced by the Coalition 18 months ago. Today represents the continuation of that task, as our country commences development of the SSN Aukus.

Aukus would not be possible, if the Coalition had not demonstrated Australia’s commitment to boosting our sovereign shipbuilding capabilities to our allies by commissioning the domestic build and upgrade of more than 70 vessels, and increased defence spending to over 2% of GDP, from its low ebb under Labor in 2013 of 1.56%.

While the purchase of the Virginia class vessels from the United States is a solution which we have advocated for some time, we call on the government to guarantee that this decision will result in no net job losses in South Australia or Western Australia in the short or medium term.

But we must be under no illusion that the pathway presented to us by the Albanese government is high risk and the government must provide surety that the risks in operating three classes of submarines is a feat which can be managed.

The Coalition is calling on the government to have a frank and honest conversation with Australians about the significant investment this decision represents to the national budget, and defence spending. This includes being upfront about what defence capabilities are being cut by $3 billion over the next four years to offset our contribution to US and UK submarine production.

The Coalition also acknowledges that this agreement remains true to Australia’s commitments to not acquire nuclear weapons and our obligations as a signatory to the South Pacific Nuclear-Free Zone treaty, and remains consistent with our position to nuclear non-proliferation. We welcome all three nations’ deep commitment to upholding leadership on global non-proliferation.

Updated

So that seems to be all the immediate reactions to the official Aukus submarine announcement.

Obviously there will be more reaction and responses to come. China is not going to be thrilled with it.

Stay tuned over the coming days (weeks/months/years) as that reaction rolls out.

We’ll bring you what else happens today on that announcement, as well as the other news of the day.

For a run-down of the submarine deal:

Updated

Did Peter Dutton know that Australia was going to take the nuclear waste?

Dutton:

I’ll let the deputy prime minister talk more about that. I think there’s more that we’ve been briefed on that I don’t think is publicly available at the moment

… In our country we have to have a sensible, mature debate about nuclear energy and the disposal of it. We dispose of nuclear waste now in our country.

… we dispose of it safely. We’ve got we’ve got terms of where we sit on the map, we have an incredibly stable environment to store nuclear waste. The Labor party signed up to Aukus knowing that they would have to deal with the waste. And now that they’re in government, they know they’re part of the deal.

Was that undertaking part of the deal when Dutton was in government?

Well, I’m not going into the detail other than to say the Americans demanded nuclear stewardship to be first and foremost and part of that is to develop a domestic industry, which the government, to their credit, is doing. That’s what we’d always envisaged under Aukus. And you need to dispose of the waste sensibly and the government will outline that policy. And the Coalition won’t be playing politics on that.

Updated

Q: The deputy prime minister declined to say this morning where the $3b of cuts in the defence program will be coming from. Have they failed at the first test of transparency?

And secondly, was it a mistake for you last night to single out the NDIS as somewhere where the Coalition could help find savings? Don’t those programs deserve to be judged on their merits?

Peter Dutton:

Well, of course they do. I’ll refer you to what I said in my budget reply speech in October. The opposition is prepared to work with the government if they’ve got changes to make.

The NDIS is an incredibly important program.

We supported it in opposition, in government, and it must continue but it must be sustainable. The government itself has pointed out difficulties around the sustainability and the cost trajectory.

The last thing you want to do is have an important program like that, which is crucial to provide dignity and support to people with disabilities, that is financially unviable.

And if they need to pass legislation, I’ve said nothing different than what I said in October of last year.

In aged care, I think there are significant investment decisions that the government needs to make to make that policy sustainable and if there’s legislation required to give more dignity to people as they age as well, then we’re will to support that through the Senate.

If the government can’t get the support of the Greens. So there are sensible debates that we need to have, but there are only three options available to the Government here.

They can find savings in the budget, go into debt or, you know, what else is available?

Updated

Coalition will back Aukus, ‘come hell or high water’

Peter Dutton then says the Coalition is committed to the Aukus agreement:

I want to give this commitment to the Australian people today that come hell or high water, the Coalition will support Aukus.

We were the authors of it.

We give full credit to the government for continuing it and arriving at today.

Regardless of the next election, if the Coalition is successful or not, Aukus will continue and it must because the times demand it and we will provide support to the government when we’re in Opposition and when we’re in government, we expect the support from the Labor party as well and I believe it will be forthcoming.

I’ve worked with the Obama administration, with the Trump administration, and with the Biden administration and I can tell you in relation to national security matters, it’s completely seamless.

The commitment of the Republicans and the Democrats, the Labor party and the Coalition has underpinned the Five Eyes relationship and the alliance between Australia and the United States for decades and it must into the future.

We’re a population of 25.8 million people and we have to ... if we’re trying to project every scenario over the course of the next century, it’s impossible to see in any of those difficult scenarios where you can be a sole trader.

You need to have that relationship with a trusted partner in the US and the UK. Canada, New Zealand, India, Japan, many others in the region now as well. It’s very important that those relationships continue so I do share the government’s optimism.

Updated

Would Dutton support a deferral of the stage-three tax cuts?

Well, the government went to the last election with a commitment for the tax cuts and they knew about Aukus.

Aukus was something that they received in their lap from the Coalition, and they knew about the expenses in relation to Aukus and they knew about Treasury and Finance from day one and still made a commitment to the tax cuts.

If they’re going to walk away from the tax cuts, then they should be very clear about that and we’ll no doubt find that out in the budget.

Updated

Where does Peter Dutton think the money should come from, if not defence?

The government has a budget coming up in May, so no doubt they’ll detail some of this, if they can identify savings within the budget. They’ll do that, no doubt. If proposing new taxes or reduction of debt they’ll do that.

They’re the government and they’ll no doubt provide all of that detail to you.

I think the most important thing here is we need to achieve the capability given the circumstances we’re in at the moment and everybody agrees that with that.

That’s why we started Aukus negotiations in the first place. It needs to be done at the least possible cost in the quickest time possible.

That’s what the government will lay out.

At the moment, listening to some of the rhetoric this morning, I think there’s a magic pudding episode going on here that somehow, the money is going to appear or it will be cost-neutral. This is not a cost-neutral decision and the government should be clear to the Australian public about that.

And appropriately, the money is being spent because the times demand it. This is the most significant undertaking in our country’s history.

We need to be transparent with the Australian public that there is a cost attached to it because we want to preserve peace in our region and we want to provide stability and country for our near neighbours and for our region.

Updated

To the questions for Peter Dutton (and shadow defence minister Andrew Hastie)

Q: You talk about about not cutting elsewhere in defence, but is it not the case there’s always a fair bit of fat around in defence that some savings could be found without halving operational capabilities and capacities.

Dutton:

I’m sure there is some savings and the government can detail that. But for example when we from were in government we put just under $10b into the Australian Signals Directorate. Long before there is any kinetic action, and any, you know, possible scenario into the future or naval blockades or whatever it is that people are talking about, you’re likely to see cyber attacks. And – cyberattacks and denial of service is here, attacks on our infrastructure, all of that is the reality. And so you need to make sure for example that they’re not going to strip money out of space, which is an incredibly important element of the government’s defences, not just in sea and land, but in the virtual world and space that we need to be careful of our capacities and capabilities and again, I think it’s important that the government is planning to strip money out of defence, it’s important they outline that and what needs to be prioritised and what it means for local companies and defence manufacturers here in Australia that are part of that important supply chain.

Updated

Opposition leader queries Labor’s lack of commitment to east-coast base

Peter Dutton also has questions over why the government won’t commit to an east coast submarine base:

There is obviously a significant question-mark hanging over the government’s commitment to the east coast base and the deputy prime minister has been clear about that this morning.

I suspect what is happening here is that they’re delaying an announcement on that until after the New South Wales state election.

I think the Labor party, frankly, at the moment, is talking out of both sides of their mouth in relation to the east coast base and they might see that as a saving so why wouldn’t they commit to it when they’ve committed to WA and to South Australia? Because that was an important part of the original considerations. It was also an important part of trying to attract a workforce on the east coast.

And this was clear advice from Navy at the time. Most people want to live in WA but not everybody wants to live on the west coast and the idea of increasing the workforce without a base on the east coast from a Navy advice perspective was difficult.

So it was to augment the workforce in the west and to attract people into being a submariner which is obviously an incredibly important part of delivering the Aukus program.

Updated

Dutton accuses government of 'magic pudding' Aukus costing

Here is what Paul Karp gave you a taste of a little earlier – Dutton talking about the cost transparency:

We have to make sure that there is transparency and honesty with the Australian people about the cost involved in Aukus.

It’s not credible for the government to say that there’s no net impact, even over the forward estimates. We can’t allow Labor to cannibalise the defence force to pay for Aukus.

It’s not an either/or option.

Let’s be very clear - when Labor was last in government, they reduced spending by 10.5% in real terms which brought spending down to 1.5% of GDP in defence.

We built that up from the day we were elected to come in at 2% or just over 2% and that put us in a credible position to do this deal with the United States and the United Kingdom.

There’s no way in the world if you were spending $10 billion a year less in defence that United States or UK would have seen us as credible partners in the construction or delivery of the nuclear-powered submarines.

That’s very clear and we can’t allow Labor to go back to a circumstance where they’re going to cannibalise Army or Navy or Air Force to pay for this.

So there is an honest conversation that the government has to have.

There’s no magic pudding.

There’s no way in which you can sugar-coat it. There is extra money that needs to be spent in defence and the United Kingdom has been honest about this, as you saw with prime minister Sunak’s announcement to increase their spending to 2.5% of GDP.

So that is incredibly important and you will require a lot of detail from the government in the run-up to the May budget not just in the forward estimates but into the out years as well. I think this is an important part of the conversation.

Updated

OK, after a press conference about how excited South Australia is, featuring the SA premier and Penny Wong, we move to Peter Dutton in the conga-line of press conferences being held across two time zones today.

Thanks for sticking with us as we work through all this information for you.

Dutton:

This is a necessary decision that’s been taken by the government and Aukus is a huge achievement. It’s been five years, or four years in the making. It’s been quite a remarkable endeavour, across three countries over that period of time.

Dutton goes through his list of people to thank, which of course includes former prime minister, Scott Morrison.

Updated

Peter Dutton is speaking on the announcement – but he has questions on the cost neutrality of the agreement over the first four years:

Updated

Military spending shows poverty is a political choice: Antipoverty Centre

The cost is a conversation Australians will need to be prepared to have, for decades. And the cost of that cost on other services and opportunities.

One of the reasons we have heard (repeatedly and across both major political parties) that we can’t afford to raise welfare rates is because Australia can’t afford it. And yet it seems Australia can afford things, when it chooses to.

The Antipoverty Centre has responded on that point:

The government has proven that poverty is a political choice with its latest military spending announcement.

$368 billion for five submarines over 30 years we can afford. Keeping people housed, fed and the supports they need to survive? Apparently we can’t afford.

People are struggling to keep a roof over their heads as major parties prioritise investors over single parents keeping their kids housed and in school. Neither party will even dare to consider investing in increasing our public housing waitlist for the ever growing list.

People are starving themselves to feed their children as the cost of living soars and both major parties are on a unity ticket to keep tax cuts for the wealthy. Yet Labor won’t take extremely modest action to rein in the most extreme tax breaks for large super accounts until after the next election – if they win.

Updated

‘We have no choice’ but to pay cost of Aukus subs: Joe Hockey

The ABC just played a little from former US ambassador (and treasurer) Joe Hockey’s interview on ABC radio RN Breakfast this morning about the cost of the submarine agreement. He said Australia has no option but to pay:

Well, we have no choice. We have no choice. When it comes to defending national security. You have to allocate a certain amount of money. We increased it when we came into government in 2013.

Q: But this is a dramatic increase.

I don’t know if it is, actually.

Updated

Peter Dutton will be responding on behalf of the opposition very soon.

‘We’re talking about nuclear power, not nuclear weapons’, Biden emphasises again

Joe Biden’s remarks are a lot shorter:

I think everything you said about it is accurate. I want to point out one other thing – I want the world to understand – you and I fully understand, as well as the prime minister of Great Britain – that we’re talking about nuclear power, not nuclear weapons. It’s critical that the world understands that and we work with the IAEA, they sign off … on what we’re doing. And I look forward to coming down there.

Albanese:

It will be fun, too.

The questions from the media begin in earnest. That part of the meeting isn’t shown (it will be a little later).

Updated

Aukus is an economic plan as well as defence and security plan, PM says

Back to the US now, and Anthony Albanese and Joe Biden are holding one of those awkward meetings where they say nice things about each other in front of the cameras.

Albanese:

We look forward to welcoming you down in Australia for the Quad meeting in May. I’m sure it will be a very successful visit and this is our fourth meeting in, I haven’t yet been prime minister for a year – so, we’ve been in very regular contact and developed a personal friendship and relationship of trust, as well, which is something that should be there between our two great nations.

And today what we’ve really done is just to demonstrate a next chapter in our history together.

John Curtin, one of my great Labor prime minister predecessors during World War II, said famously, ‘We turn to America, we look to America in our time of need.’ And ever since then, we have stood side by side and today, I think, is very important, very significant, that you have agreed for just the second time in history to share this technology.

And I think it will make a difference in advancing security and stability in the region. But also we, of course, share a common interest in rebuilding manufacturing in our respective countries.

And we see this is a very much an economic plan, not just a defence and security plan. This hi-tech manufacturing capacity that we’re building will be really important going forward.

When we talk about national security, we have shared your language about climate change being a national security issue as well which is of course the entry ticket into credibility in the Pacific in particular.

We have spent our first year in office really rebuilding relationships in the region based upon our action on climate change. Your inflation reduction act is the most significant piece of legislation ever on climate. We’re trying to also deal with the challenge which is there.

We so much look forward to welcoming you and Prime Minister Modi and Prime Minister Kishida down to Australia in just a couple of months now. And then I look forward to being at Apec as well, you’re hosting that later this year. So we’re going to see a lot of each other on an ongoing basis.

Biden says “that’s a very good thing”. Albanese agrees.

Updated

Transparency has been welcomed by regional leaders, defence minister says

Australia has made 60 or so phone calls to regional leaders to talk through the agreement and any concerns.

Is that enough? Richard Marles says:

I’m really loath to get myself into a space where I’m speaking on behalf of other countries. So ultimately, you’re asking how are they reacting? I’ll ultimately leave it for them to give that reaction. I’d simply say that an awful lot of effort has gone in here. You know, we have done a lot of diplomacy, and the foreign minister has led that. We feel like we’re in the best position we can be in, in terms of the acceptance of our neighbours and the world of the decision that we are making.

I can say that in terms of the conversations I’ve had, and I think Pat would be the same, and I’ve spoken with both Penny [Wong] and the prime minister – they’ve all been pretty constructive calls.

We’ve all been very comforted by the sorts of conversations that we’ve had. And I think the effort that we have put in, in relation to providing transparency here to our neighbours and to our friends, has been welcomed. But it is ultimately a matter for them to provide the definite reaction, obviously.

Pat Conroy:

I think Richard is absolutely right. And it’s not for me to speak on behalf of the leaders of the Pacific. I just make [ two points]; they have generally welcomed the opportunity to be briefed ahead of the announcement. The gesture of that is very important. Operating in a transparent and respectful manner is critical, and I think it’s something that this government is very committed to.

Secondly, our emphasis on the fact that what we’re doing is completely consistent with the treaty of Rarotonga is there and everything is consistent with it and the commitment to non-nuclear proliferation.

Updated

‘There is no decision about an east coast base’: Marles

Where will the east coast submarine base be?

Marles says people need to chill:

I’m aware that there’s been a lot of conjecture about this particularly in certain parts of the east coast. Let me say this – I think everybody who is engaged in that needs to take a very deep breath. This is a long way into the future.

There is no decision about an east coast base which forms part of the decision that we have announced today.

It is the case that the former government announced the need for an east coast base, but we are taking our time here, and all of that is a long way into the future.

Updated

‘Sovereign Australian workforce’ to be trained to build submarines: Conroy

Pat Conroy says building up Australia’s capability also includes building up the workforce:

The simple answer is, we’re going to train Australians to do this. As I said, apprentices starting their training today could work on this project for their entire working life. We’re going to be training Australians to do this and we’re confident that we’re investing now to deliver that.

We’ve talked about – there might need to be some discussions around visa arrangements to facilitate workers from Australia working on US and UK submarines and vice versa.

But as Richard said, at the end of this Aukus process, we need to go from three construction yards across the United Kingdom, Australia and the United States able to make nuclear submarines to four – ie Adelaide. And part of that is having a sovereign Australian workforce that is part of that industrial capability.

That’s our plan.

We’ll look at visa arrangements if we need to, around facilitating work experience and plugging gaps. But we’ll be training Australians to do this job.

Updated

Sovereignty not compromised by sharing defence tech, Marles says

Australia will not provide its own nuclear fuel for the submarines. What does that mean for our sovereignty?

Marles:

This has been an important part of the consideration that is we’ve had in relation to how we have structured all of this. Sovereignty has been totally central to the decisions that we’ve made.

We want the best sovereign outcome that we can possibly have.

Now, when we think about sovereignty with defence platforms generally, people need to understand, as I’m sure everyone does, that we often import technology of various kinds to operate within our defence platforms, from around the world. From the US, but in fact, from around the world.

So defence forces generally now around the world use shared technologies. And there is a sovereignty implementation to that if you compare it to times past where everything was being made and developed within one country.

That’s just not the world in which we live today. But a sealed nuclear reactor which will exist for the life of the submarine itself is an excellent sovereign outcome. Because it doesn’t need to be refuelled.

In other words, we get the reactor and it’s there, and it’s there until the end. And it does offer the opportunity for us to do the full maintenance of the submarine during the life of the submarine.

And so, you’re seeing through the sovereignty lens, this is as good an outcome as you would want and it stands very much on par with the kind of sovereignty outcomes that we get through the importation of other technology and other defence platforms.

Updated

Marles confident in agreement’s future in event of political change in America

Richard Marles says he is confident that the agreement will hold, even if America has a change in political direction:

I kind of don’t want to delve into a critique or an analysis of the lineage of American politic and where it might go. I think that the point really to make is this – if you look across the history of American politic, across all of the lineages – throughout all of that, the alliance with Australia has been strong.

That’s point one.

Point two is if you look across the existing Congress today and the Biden Administration is doing exactly that right now in order to win the approval for those aspects of the arrangement which needs congressional approval, they are finding support across the political spectrum.

Both of those facts give me a sense of confidence about the future and how this will work.

And you know, I mean, America … The American alliance is very central to our worldview. I’ve said, repeatedly, that I don’t think that the American alliance has been more important than it is now in terms of the period since the end of the second world war. I say that in respect of the security guarantee that we get by virtue of that alliance.

But the technology sharing aspect of our relationship is also fundamentally important. And I have complete confidence that that will endure.

Updated

Richard Marles has not been involved in any briefing with China. He says he is unaware of any response to the offer.

Q: When did buying the Virginia class emerge? Recent months or pre-election?

Marles:

It’s not pre-election.

Q: Can you expand on that, and I ask the admiral the same question?

Well, this has emerged since coming to office. One of the critical points that was in one of the very early conversations that I had with the admiral was the need to get the capability yesterday. You know, as soon as possible! That what we faced was a capability gap. And that whilst the life of type extension of Collin was an answer, it could not be the complete answer, because we all understand the diminishing nature of the capability of a diesel-electric submarine, and as I described to you on background, the ability for the process of snorting to be detected.

So from that point of view, we made it really clear that we need a solution earlier than the early 2040s. And it’s really one of the big breakthroughs that Admiral Mead has been able to achieve since the election, to get to a point where we are now having the ability to operate an Australian-flagged vessel in the early 2030s … with nuclear-powered submarines operating from Australia, really in the next few years, you know, from 2027. And that will be a big step forward in terms of the capability in our country.

V Adm Mead:

You know, this work that we do with the Aukus partners over the last 18 months was an evolutionary process. We brought together the US and UK and we looked at a range of options and scenarios that could address those premises of enduring capability, how to close the capability gap, adhere to the NPT, how to do it safely and securely.

Over many months, we worked this, we went over to US. We went over to UK. They came over here. We had something like 13 major in situ meetings of 50 or 60 people together.

The ultimate pathway that we put forward with the Virginias rotating out of Western Australia – we actually see that as a very elegant pathway into having sovereign control of our own Virginias and then the Virginias obviously addressing the capability gap. And then also, as a pathway to leading into SSN-Aukus. Each step, which is really an indevisible step sees it out to the 2040s and 2050s.

Updated

‘There wouldn’t be much of an overlap’ between last Collins-class and first SSN-Aukus subs, Marles says

Q: Is it possible that we’ll be maintaining and operating three classes of submarines? That is the Virginia, the Collins and the Aukus submarines? And if so, is there any concern? And can I ask the admiral as well, is there any concern in defence about the prospect of operating three different submarines?

Marles:

We obviously will be operating two as a result of this announcement.

You know, the preference is to operate as few classes as possible. This is the step that we have needed to take in order to close the capability gap. We can’t escape from the fact that over the last decade, seeing our country go in and out of a deal with Japan and in and out of a deal with France has meant that we lost a decade there.

And the alternative to doing this is to have a capability gap, or probably the alternative is to be solely relying on the life of type extension of Collins, which is an answer – but, through the 2030s, will increasingly become not a great answer. In terms of operating three, that really is going to be a decision for a future government.

There wouldn’t be much of an overlap, but it’s going to be a question of the precise year in which you would retire the last Collins versus the last year in which you would produce the first SSN-Aukus. They would ultimately be decisions for future governments. But we are confident that we can manage having the two submarines in the fleet and there will be a considerable degree of commonality between the Virginias and the SNN-AUKUS, which will mean that the difference is not as large as it was.

V Adm Jonathan Mead says:

I totally agree with what the deputy prime minister said. So we currently have, with the Collins class, a US combat system and a US torpedo.

I have submariners working for me who have just been part of a Virginia-class program at sea for over 12 months.

So the way that we wanted to construct the optimal pathway is retaining that top of lineage and DNA that we have with Collins, and therefore, the Virginia.

And you could put Australian submariners on board a that, and everything there, our submariners would be familiar with.

And once we work with the submarines coming to Western Australia and develop our own capabilities on the Virginias, then the move to SSN-Aukus, which will have incredible commonality with propulsion systems, platforms, weapons, combat systems and sensors, once again, by the time we get SSN-Aukus, our submarine force … and the scientists that have to support Virginia will be able to move … I won’t say seamlessly, because there’s no such thing as a seamless transition, but will be able to move at low risk to SSN-Aukus.

Pat Conroy:

Can I just add, we’ve dealt with the crossovers before. There was a crossover between the Oberon class and the Collins class and there’s more commonality between these two submarines than there was between those two.

Updated

Four US submarines stationed in WA for training not a foreign base: Marles

Q: You made it very clear this morning that the stationed submarines in Western Australia will not constitute a US base. However, if there are up to four submarines out there, helping to train Australian sailors, they could be called on at any time to provide support in the Pacific. In what way is that not a base?

Marles:

Well, it’s a forward rotation. So they’re not going to be based there. But you know, right now, we have a forward rotation of marines, US marines in Darwin. So the same point can be made in respect of that presence.

And we have an ongoing use of the continent in various ways by the United States, and not just by the United States. For example, Singapore probably uses our continent more than any country in terms of its military operations.

But we made clear, and I made clear in my sovereignty statement to the parliament a few weeks ago, that it has been a bipartisan position of governments in this country [and] it remains the position of the Albanese government that there won’t be foreign bases in Australia.

And this will not be a foreign base. It’s a forward rotation.

Updated

Marles ‘confident that this will be an enduring arrangement with the US’

Q: This timeline will span several US presidential administrations. Are you concerned that a future US president will tear it up?

Marles:

Well, I’m not, is the answer to your question. The US alliance has thrived under successive administrations and governments in Australia since the end … Well, since the second world war. And that includes over the last ten years.

So I’m confident that this will be an enduring arrangement with the United States.

I’m confident on that … based on past record. I’m also confident about it because right now, elements of this arrangement will require congressional approval.

Our American counterparts are busily working with members of the Congress in the House and the Senate, and that’s across the political spectrum and across the political spectrum, there is complete support for the relationship with Australia and the AUKUS arrangements. So we enter this with a high degree of confidence.

Updated

Marles questioned on nuclear waste disposal and relationship with France

Q: Just to back up on the waste issue, you’ve been squabbling for 30 years over where to bury low-level waste and it’s still yet to be resolved. You’ve got less time than that to establish a high-level facility and reprocessing. You’ve said defence land. Would it not be easy to just [dispose of] it in Woomera? Which is defence land and has a base up there? And if I could, a second, your conversation with the French defence minister, in November last year, Emmanuel Macron at Apec in Thailand was criticising the Aukus deal saying, listen, it will risk a nuclear conflict with China and cost Australian sovereignty over a submarine fleet. Are the French no longer of that view?

Marles:

Let me answer the second first. I’m not about to speak for France.

Q: You said you spoke to the defence minister.

Marles:

Again, I’m not going to speak for France and they’re very obviously capable of speaking for themselves. I was very grateful for the conversation. I would say that we feel our relationship with France is in a good place. We’ve put in an enormous amount of effort, as have they, to rebuild the relationship from where it was 18 months ago. France matters because they are effectively our closest neighbour. The closest overseas population to where we’re sitting today is in France, it’s in Noumea. And France see us as a critical partner as well. We both want the relationship to be going in the right direction and I genuinely believe it is but ultimately the French will react, as they do, to this and I’ll let them speaks for themselves.

In respect of the first question, firstly, we are talking about more than 30 years from now.

Updated

Q: Australia has been accused of making a time bomb. Was Beijing on the list of the phone calls you made?

Marles:

We’ve offered a briefing to China.

Marles: Defence costing for program is neutral over forward estimates

Q: Even taking difficulties of forecasting it into account, do you endorse the $268bn to $368bn as a figure? Can you clarify the cuts that we may have to have? The opposition leader is talking about cuts to the NDIS.

Marles:

In terms of the first part of the question, I’ll let you do the maths, but whatever maths you end up doing will have a lot of assumptions in it that are difficult to verify at this moment. 0.15% of GDP is the clear and most honest way to identify the costs through the life of the program. I’m not about to turn it this into a press conference about what the budget looks like.

Obviously, the treasurer is … [working with] the [expenditure review committee] right now in full swing and there’s a lot of conversations going on in relation to that. The important point to make about the cost in respect of forward estimates is that defence is covering it. So defence is cost neutral with this over the forward estimates.

The idea that anyone would have suggested that was possible when, you know, we came to government, would have been described as crazy, and yet we have got to a point where it will be defence neutral over that time.

Pat Conroy:

Just to supplement, that 0.15%, to be clear, includes costings that have never been provided for other defence projects in this country. It includes developing and upskilling workforce and industry, supporting the supply chain, the infrastructure in South Australia and Western Australia, the build and delivery of the program, the operations, importantly, sustainment of the platforms and weapons and contingency.

Unlike the attack class which didn’t include the costs of the workforce, the facilities, contingency, weapons, sustainment, or the west coast-based infrastructure. So it’s as the DPM has said, we are being transparent with the public about the costs of this national undertaking.

Updated

Marles: ‘This is as good a value-for-money spend in defence as you will get’

Q: As you said before, this program is very costly and yet there’s 0.15% increase to [defence spending] as a percentage of GDP. That seems rather modest, especially when you consider that experts like Marcus Hellyer and Dennis Richardson were predicting that defence spending would have to be at least 2.75% of GDP if not more. How do you tally the giant cost of it and it being relatively modest?

Marles:

Well, I mean, it’s a really good question. I think 0.15% of GDP is the best way to describe this and I think when you consider what we are doing to transform the capability and potency of the Australian Defence Force, it is modest. I think that’s right.

Q: I’m not endorsing it. I’m questioning why it shouldn’t be higher?

Marles:

No, no. I’m endorsing the idea that it’s modest.

When you think about the potency and capability that comes from this, this is as good a value-for-money spend in defence as you will get. We’ve got a long way to go in terms of how we structure the ADF, and in about a month’s time, there will be the second of the big announcements, which is when we release the public version of the defence strategic review.

And there will be some very big decisions in relation to that as well. But I think it is important to understand that amid all the figures that have been thrown around in respect of this program – and it’s the point I was making earlier – you can take any ability of government and forecast it out to the middle of the 2050s and you will get a large number.

And let’s be clear, there’s something of a guesstimate whenever one does that because inherent in that number is whatever the inflation rate is in 2050 and no one knows that.

But when you bail it all down we’re talking about 0.15% in the context of a defence budget that is right now at 2.0% and growing to 2.2%. And for that 0.15% we transform the potency of our defence force which is why we must do this.

Updated

‘You can judge us at that point’: answers to funding questions will become apparent in budget, Marles says

Richard Marles says the trio will not be able to answer all the questions today.

That includes the first question.

Q: Is a high-level nuclear waste dump the price that South Australia will have to pay for the jobs that go to the state?

Marles:

Well, as I indicated earlier there will be a process that we will determine in the next 12 months … how the site will be identified. You’ve made a leap that we won’t make for some time. It will be a while before a site is identified but we will establish a process.

And the second question:

Q: The $9bn the government is spending over the forwards has a neutral impact on the budget, $6bn because of what was allocated to the attack class but $3bn is coming from the integrated investment program. Can you give more detail about … where that money is coming from? And if not today, when?

Marles:

I won’t give you the detail today except you’re right to identify the integrated investment program and obviously the strategic review has had a good look at all of that. It will be plain in time of the budget.

And the third question.

Q: Why not now, though? You must have an idea where those cuts are going to be? In the interests of transparency, people want to judge what the opportunity cost of the nuclear submarines are. Unless you’re suggesting it’s cuts first and work it out later? Where are the cuts coming from?

Marles:

Well, no. You will get all of that information before the budget, which is measured in just a couple of months, so you can judge us at that point.

Updated

Defence industry minister says skills academy to be established for training apprentices in shipbuilding

Pat Conroy steps up (he is the defence industry minister):

My messages to Australian industry and workers is that this work starts right now. It starts right now – $6bn will be spent in the next four years, investing in the Australian industry and work force, for example infrastructure grades, skills development, training and apprenticeships, capacity building of Australian suppliers will be lifted so they cannot just supply us, but supply our Aukus partners.

The development of the submarine construction yard commences this year. We’ll be expanding the shipbuilding workforce with more apprentices, undergraduates and graduates in the next few months.

We’ll establish a skills academy to deliver training and train hundreds of apprentices each year.

An apprentice who starts on this project today could work their entire career building these submarines for Australia, which is a tremendous opportunity.

We’ll upskill workers in adjacent industries.

Furthermore, hundreds if not thousands of Australian workers will work overseas in US and UK shipyards helping them build their submarines and bringing back valuable skills and experience to help with our building build.

We’ll work with Aukus partners to identify specific opportunities for Australian industry to participate in the nuclear submarine supply chain for our partners.

This will help ease the supply chain constraints the United Kingdom and the United States are currently experiencing.

It will leverage the considerable expertise already present in Australian industry and it will boost our capacity ahead of the commencement of the Australian build program.

… These are just some of the opportunities that we’ll be exploring. We’ll be pursuing opportunities for the construction yard to manufacture components for the United States and UK production lines, helping us build our experience and certify the facilities and the workforce.

And over the course of the program, it’s estimated that we will spend around $30bn just uplifting the skills and capacity of the Australian industry and the Australian workforce.

Updated

‘We’re in a good place with France’, says Marles

Marles continues:

One of the things I would want to make clear is Aukus is not a new alliance. Aukus is a technology-sharing arrangement between Australia, the US and the UK.

In an operational sense, we are building our relationship with France, with a much greater tempo of military exercises, with greater access to our bases on the Australian continent but also French bases in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Ours is a relationship which is growing in strength.

And I’m really pleased about my personal relationship with the French defence minister which for me typifies the warmth of the relationship we have with France.

We’re in a good place with France and that matters because, really, France is effectively our closest neighbour.

The deputy prime minister and defence minister finishes by thanking the public service, which he says has gone above and beyond to get the announcement ready.

Updated

More than 60 diplomatic calls made to regional and world leaders in past week: Marles

Richard Marles:

Now, it’s been said a number of times today that this is a conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarine, so Australia has no intention of operating nuclear weapons from our soil. But we reiterate and reaffirm today that in every part of this arrangement, Australia will be meeting its obligations under the treaty of Rarotonga and that includes through the US and UK rotation at HMAS Stirling from the late 2020s.

There has been a huge diplomatic effort which has underpinned the announcement today and that’s been going on for months, but it’s particularly been going on over the last week.

Between myself, the minister for the Pacific in this context, the foreign minister and indeed the prime minister, we’ve made more than 60 calls to regional and world leaders within the Pacific, within Asean, within our Five Eyes partners.

And I’ll let those countries speak for themselves, but I am very grateful for the response that we have received. Particularly in this context, I want to mention France, given all that occurred 18 months ago. I spoke with my French counterpart last Tuesday. I took him through this announcement in detail. So there are no surprises.

Updated

Marles: Aukus program includes commitment to dispose of spent nuclear reactors

Marles continues:

A precondition of the whole program with Aukus is to be making sure that everything we are doing is compliant with non-proliferation treaty obligations, and we are really confident that we are setting the highest bar in relation to our NPT obligations and we’ve been working closely with the International Atomic Energy Agency in respect of this.

In this respect, the sealed nuclear reactor is our friend, because by virtue of having a sealed reactor, we can provide assurance in respect of every piece of nuclear material through the life cycle of the nuclear material.

We are making a commitment that we will dispose of the nuclear reactor. That is a significant commitment to make. This is going to require a facility to be built in order to do a disposal that will be remote from populations. We are announcing that will be on defence land, current or future.

Now, to be clear, the first of the [nuclear material] we will dispose of will not happen until the 2050s, but within the year, we will announce a process by with this facility will be identified.

We are also a proud signatory to the treaty of Rarotonga. That commits us to not operate nuclear weapons from our territory.

Updated

Cost of subs ‘an investment that we cannot afford not to make’: Marles

On the cost, Richard Marles says:

Now, the cost is significant. But I would be quick to add that the sort of numbers that you have seen are capability of government out to the mid-2050s and you can look at a number of ability of governments beyond defence which, if you cost it out to the mid-2050s, way have similarly large numbers.

But this is a significant cost.

The best estimate of the cost – to be honest, the most transparent and honest estimate of this cost – is 0.15% of GDP through the life of the program.

And that needs to be seen against a defence budgeting which is currently running at 2% of GDP and is expected to grow to 2.2% of GDP.

So for that 0.15% w he completely transformed the capability of the Australian defence force and the potency of the Australian defence force. This is an investment in our nation’s security. It is an investment in our nation’s economy. And it is an investment that we cannot afford not to make.

Updated

Richard Marles, Pat Conroy and Jonathan Mead hold press conference

Richard Marles, Pat Conroy and V Adm Jonathan Mead, the chief of the nuclear powered submarine taskforce, are holding a press conference in Canberra.

Marles is feeling reflective this morning:

We often describe ourselves as living in the most complex strategic landscape since the end of the second world war. We say this because we watch the global rules-based order being placed under enormous pressure in eastern Europe but also in the Indo-Pacific.

And we are witnessing the biggest conventional military buildup that we have seen since the end of the second world war, and that’s happening within our region, and it is not Australia which is doing that, and we need to do this. A failure to do so would see us be condemned by history.

As a trading island nation, so much harm can be done to us before ever setting foot upon our shores. And so it’s fundamentally important for our nation that we have the ability to project, and to project with impact, and a long-range nuclear-powered capable submarine will be at the heart of Australia’s future projection. It will enable us to hold adversaries at risk further from our shores. But the true intent of this submarine, of this capability, is to provide for the peace and stability of our region.

Because when you look at our geography, the defence of Australia is not relevant unless there is security within our region and so we want everyone to understand – the Australian people, but [also] our friends and neighbours – that at the heart of our strategic intent is to make our contribution to the collective security of our region and to the maintenance of the global rules-based order which is so fundamental to Australia’s future; and it’s for that reason that we are acquiring a nuclear-powered submarine.

In making this acquisition, it will enable us to hand on to our children and our grandchildren a country which is much more self-reliant and much more able to take care of ourselves in the very difficult future ahead.

Updated

Costing of Aukus plan in the short, medium and long term

Let’s return to the eye-popping cost of the Aukus plan.

Australia’s entire nuclear-powered submarine program – including acquisition, construction and sustainment – is forecast to cost $268bn to $368bn between now and the mid-2050s, most of it beyond the first four-year budget period.

The longer term figures are inherently harder to predict, because of things like inflation/exchange rates and so on.

But the plan includes $9bn over the initial four-year budget forward estimates (the part that matters to the current planning ahead of the May budget). This is believed to include $6bn domestically, and a contribution of $3bn to assist the US submarine industrial base.

As it happens, when the French submarine project was axed a year and a half ago, the then government never removed the budget allocation, so there was a $6bn allocation over four years for the dumped project. That means there is a $3bn shortfall between now and 2026-27 compared with the dumped project. Defence is being asked to offset that $3bn, through changes to defence projects (likely to be announced next month in the defence strategic review).

Now to the medium term (the 10 years from now to 2032-33):

The whole-of-program Aukus costs are predicted to be $50bn to $58bn over the medium term, compared with $24bn allocated over the same period for the dumped French. We can start to see the costs ramping up significantly over the decade.

As for the longer-term costs (2023-24 to 2054-55), the government is estimating a whole-of-program cost of about 0.15% of GDP a year on average. That is a subset of Labor’s election pledge to keep overall defence spending of at least 2% of GDP annually.

Updated

Like we said – giant flags:

Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, right, meets with US President Joe Biden and Prime Minister of Australia Anthony Albanese, left, at Point Loma naval base in San Diego, US, Monday March 13, 2023, as part of Aukus, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK, and the US.
Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, right, meets with US President Joe Biden and Prime Minister of Australia Anthony Albanese, left, at Point Loma naval base in San Diego, US, Monday March 13, 2023, as part of Aukus, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK, and the US. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/AP

Updated

Aukus nuclear submarine deal loophole prompts proliferation fears

This from our colleague in the US Julian Borger is worth your attention:

The Aukus scheme announced on Monday in San Diego represents the first time a loophole in the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been used to transfer fissile material and nuclear technology from a nuclear weapons state to a non-weapons state.

The loophole is paragraph 14, and it allows fissile material utilized for non-explosive military use, like naval propulsion, to be exempt from inspections and monitoring by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It makes arms controls experts nervous because it sets a precedent that could be used by others to hide highly enriched uranium, or plutonium, the core of a nuclear weapon, from international oversight.

Updated

What is the next step for South Australia?

Malinauskas:

I’m very much looking forward to hopefully having significant members of the federal government here in South Australia tomorrow. We’ve been discussing a range of issues with the commonwealth around that skills workforce piece, but also the infrastructure issues that need to be addressed down at Osborne.

This morning we learned the commonwealth has allocated $2bn worth of expenditure over the next four years at Osborne. That’s going to start this calendar year around gearing up the shipyards to start building the submarines towards the ends of this decade.

It’s an exciting proposition. The money seems to be there, the plan is there, we need to get on with the task which we’re very committed to doing.

Updated

Is the South Australian premier, Peter Malinauskas, confident SA can build these submarines?

Well the short answer is yes, absolutely, without equivocation. We’ve seen here in South Australia that when we’re actually give a continuous pipeline of work to build capacity around, then the industry here in South Australia is more than capable of delivering it.

What has been the challenge up until this point is the constant stop-start policy that we’ve seen from the federal government regarding naval shipbuilding that’s compromising the ability for the private sector to invest.

Now we’ve got this long-term plan, a continuous build, a continuous pipeline, it gives the ability for governments to have the skills program that is required to develop the workforce and private industry the ability to make the capital investments to improve their complexity so they can deliver on such a significant enterprise.

The best example I can give you in real terms is the air warfare destroyer project.

We know the first one was very, very expensive indeed. And there were time delays associated with it. But because there was a second and third, by the end of the third air warfare destroyer, it was largely on budget and operated within an appropriate time frame. So we can do this.

When there’s the ability to plan ahead and now of course we have this with this commitment to continuous nuclear submarine building right here in South Australia.

Updated

The US ambassador to Australia, Caroline Kennedy was at the Aukus announcement and was asked about concerns the agreement would inflame tensions in the region.

Kennedy said:

You heard the leaders talk about [how] this is intended to secure and peace and stability of the region. I think it’s got deterrent capabilities. It doesn’t have nuclear weapons. I think a lot of that is just, you know, trying to diminish the significance of this. But I think this is really going to bring peace and prosperity in the region.

Updated

Richard Marles and Pat Conroy, who look after the defence portfolios, will be holding a press conference in Canberra in just under an hour to discuss today’s announcement.

Aukus deal 'mortgaging our future in order to stoke regional tensions': Greens

You can add the Greens to the list of “not fans of Aukus”. David Shoebridge said in a statement:

This is a 368 billion dollar nuclear-powered raid on public education, health, housing and First Nations justice that will starve core services for decades to come.

Unlike the Coalition, the Greens will not be cooperating with the government to force budget savings on critical public services to pay for these submarines.

Until it is reversed, today’s announcement will force Labor to deliver austerity budgets to funnel billions of dollars offshore to fund the US and UK nuclear submarine industries.

With this one decision, Labor is mortgaging our future in order to stoke regional tensions with a dangerous escalation in regional defence spending.

What should send a shiver down every Australians’ spine is that the $368 billion budget is just the ADF’s starting bid, because we know major defence projects routinely blow their budgets and timelines.

Jordon Steele-John said in that same statement:

The Albanese Government’s announcement of the specifics of the AUKUS pact is a fundamental threat to Australian independence and our ability to collaborate in our region. It will undermine the global effort to fight the climate crisis and unleash a regional arms race that only serves to enrich global arms manufacturers.

The Aukus pact will see an unprecedented nuclearisation of our oceans and open Australia up to the risk of a nuclear disaster which would have effects that last generations. Make no mistake - there is not a single modern technology that has never failed.

It is especially egregious that the government would see fit to announce this deal so close to the 20th anniversary of the US leading Australia into an illegal invasion of Iraq for which they have never apologised or demonstrated that they have learned any of the lessons that come from that humanitarian disaster.

This deal has been compromised from the start. It was dreamt up by a Morrison government on its way to electoral defeat and stewarded by US military advisors who got rich off telling the Australian government how they could best serve American Interests.

Updated

The Australian Conservation Foundation has also responded, and it is safe to say the organisation is not a fan of the plan.

The foundation’s nuclear analyst Dave Sweeney said:

The arrangement announced today will undoubtedly elevate regional tensions and increase risks for Australians and our neighbours.

This deal introduces new and significant safety risks that Australia has never had to deal with before.

There are risks of possible future accidents in our ports and waters, especially given nuclear regulator ARPANSA’s assessment that emergency management arrangements in Australia ‘are not fit for purpose for a future with nuclear powered submarines.’

Pacific nations, Indonesia and others in our region have deep concerns about AUKUS.

This arrangement further entangles Australia in the USA’s war-fighting plans.

It raises serious non-proliferation concerns relating to access to highly enriched weapons-grade uranium and sets a disturbing precedent for imitation and escalation.

Australia would be the only nation without nuclear weapons but with nuclear submarines. It may embolden other nations to go down this path, increasing global nuclear risks.

There is no clarity about how the government intends to manage the resulting high level nuclear waste for the thousands of years it remains radioactive.

As many Australians face daily cost of living pressures – and we all face the pressures of the climate crisis – this deal comes with a massive financial cost we will all bear.

This whole process has lacked rigour or transparency and will cost Australians many billions of dollars that would be much better spent on social and environmental problems.

Updated

The Australian Shipbuilding Federation of Unions has responded to the official Aukus announcement:

The Australian Shipbuilding Federation of Unions (ASFU) cautiously acknowledges the 14 March announcement in San Diego of the parties to the Aukus trilateral security pact – the governments of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States – to commit to a joint-build of a new class of submarine that will maximise the involvement of Australia’s shipbuilding and defence industries.

Today’s announcement raises more questions than answers on how Australia will build the workforce of the future. The ASFU seeks a commitment from the government that today’s announcement is not simply a repeat of successive governments’ failures to plan for the long term.

The ASFU looks forward to working with Defence Minister Richard Marles and Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy to deliver the ASFU’s key priorities for the Osborne Naval Shipyard and the AUKUS project, including several undertakings by the Government in its commitments to the ASFU, including:

  • A joint union/industry led workforce development program in South Australia culminating in the establishment of an Engineering Centre of Excellence to train and develop the next generation of shipbuilding engineers, tradespeople and apprentices;

  • Establishing a precinct-wide industrial agreement that will facilitate the interoperability of the Aukus project between firms located at Osborne, and within the broader defence industry, and facilitate the portability of shipbuilding workers’ employment, skills and qualifications;

  • A building program in South Australia that will ensure a skilled workforce is developed immediately, as will be necessary for the future AUKUS submarine build given that the Life-of- Type Extension of the Collins Class submarines and worker exchanges to the UK and USA will not be sufficient to prepare Australian defence manufacturing industries for the AUKUS build; and

  • A commitment to ASFU consultation and direct involvement in the international UK/USA workforce exchange program.

Updated

The White House pool reporter (there isn’t room for the entire press pack, so one reporter is chosen and reports back to everyone about what they see, who is there etc) has sent through their report about the president’s arrival:

The Beast* pulled up alongside the press hold at 1:33 pm but POTUS got out the other side – not visible to press – and went into a building.

It is quite the scenic venue. Remarks are taking place outdoors on a pier with the US, British and Australian flags in the backroad. Also visible in the water off the pier, the destroyer USS Sterett with colorful flags floating in the breeze; red, white and blue bunting and sailors lined up along the decks at attention.

Also visible the USS Charlotte and USS Missouri – two Virginia class submarines.

*The Beast is what the US president’s car is called – it travels everywhere with the president.

Updated

The announcement ends with Joe Biden awkwardly referring to the personnel on the USS Missouri, like he is showing new friends his favourite toys.

Biden:

With the permission of my colleagues, I don’t know if my friends can hear, the USS Missouri, can you hear us? I see them all over there. They’re standing in attention. Can you tell them at ease?

I’m the commander-in-chief, right?

Anyway, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you. You’re the best. You’re the best.

We’re going to be the best in the world, the three of us.

Sunak finishes with:

This is a powerful partnership. For the first time ever, it will mean three fleets of submarines working together across both the Atlantic and Pacific, keeping our oceans free, open, and prosperous for decades to come.

Joe, Anthony, we represent three allies who have stood shoulder to shoulder together for more than a century.

Three peoples who have shed blood together in defence of our shared values. And three democracies that are coming together again, to fulfil that higher purpose of maintaining freedom, peace, and security now and for generations to come.

Updated

Sunak: new submarines will be 'truly interoperable' across Aukus countries

Sunak:

Those plans could not happen without cutting-edge American technology and expertise, so I pay tribute to you, Mr President, for your leadership.

And to you, Prime Minister, for your vision of what Aukus can achieve.

And for our part, the UK comes to this with over 60 years experience of running our own fleet.

We’ll provide the world-leading design and build the first of these new boats, creating thousands of good, well paid jobs in places like Barrow and Derby, and we’ll share our knowledge and experience with Australian engineers, so they can build their own fleet. Our partnership is significant because not just are we building these submarines together, they’ll also be truly interoperable.

The Royal Navy will operate the same submarines as the Australian Navy. And we’ll both share components and parts with the US Navy. Our submarine crews will train together, patrol together, and maintain their boats together.

They will communicate using the same terminology, and the same equipment. And through Aukus, we’ll raise our standards of nuclear non-proliferation.

Updated

Sunak continues:

Because their security is our security. And we will go further to strengthen our resilience. For the first time the United Kingdom will move away from our baseline commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defence to a new ambition of 2.5%, putting beyond doubt that the United Kingdom is and will remain one of the world’s leading defence powers.

But ultimately, the defence of our values depends as it always has on the quality of our relationships with others. And those alliances will be strengthened through Aukus, the most significant multilateral defence partnership in generations. Aukus matches our enduring commitment to freedom and democracy, with the most advanced military, scientific, and technological capability.

Nowhere is that clearer than in the plans we’re unveiling today for the new Aukus submarine, one of the most advanced nuclear-powered subs the world has ever known.

Updated

And now it is UK prime minister Rishi Sunak’s turn.

Sixty years ago, here in San Diego, President Kennedy spoke of a higher purpose: the maintenance of freedom, peace, and security.

Today we stand together, united by that same purpose, and recognising that to fulfil it, we must forge new kinds of relationships to meet a new kind of challenge, just as we have always done. In the last 18 months the challenge we face has only grown. Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, China’s growing assertiveness, the destabilising behaviour of Iran and North Korea – all threaten to create a world defined by danger, disorder and division.

Faced with this new reality, it’s more important than ever we strengthen the resilience of our own countries. That’s why the UK … [is] announcing a significant uplift in our defence budget, we’re providing an extra #5 billion over the next two years, immediately increasing our defence budget to around 2.25% of GDP.

This will allow us to replenish our war stocks, and modernise our nuclear enterprise, delivering Aukus and strengthening our deterrent. And our highest priority is to continue providing military aid to Ukraine.

Updated

Albanese:

Mr President. Prime Minister. For more than a century, brave citizens from our three countries have been part of a shared tradition of service in the cause of peace, and sacrifice in the name of freedom.

We honour their memory. We always will.

While we respect and honour the past – through Aukus, we turn ourselves to face the future.

Because what the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia hold in common is more fundamental, and more universal, than our shared histories.

We are bound – above all – by our belief in a world where the sovereignty of every nation is respected – and the inherent dignity of every individual is upheld. Where peace, stability and security ensure greater prosperity and a greater measure of fairness for all. And where all countries are able to act in their sovereign interests, free from coercion.

Our historic Aukus partnership speaks to our collective and ongoing determination to defend those values and secure that future – today, in the years ahead, and for generations to come.

A journey that will strengthen the bonds between our nations – as friends, as peers, as leaders.

We embark with great confidence in the capacity and creativity of our people, with optimism in the power of what our partnership can achieve, and with an unwavering conviction that whatever the challenges ahead, the cause of peace and freedom will prevail.

Updated

Albanese:

The scale, complexity and economic significance of this investment is akin to the creation of the Australian automotive industry in the post-World War II period.

And, just as the vision of Curtin and Chifley in creating our automotive industry lifted our entire manufacturing sector, this investment will be a catalyst for innovation and research breakthroughs that will reverberate right throughout the Australian economy and across every state and territory.

Not just in one design element, not just in one field, but right across our advanced manufacturing and technology sectors, creating jobs and growing businesses, right around Australia, inspiring and rewarding innovation, and educating young Australians today for the opportunities of tomorrow.

Our Aukus partnership is not just about the US and UK sharing their most advanced submarine capability with Australia, although we do appreciate that, it’s also about drawing and building on the expertise within our three nations, so that we can achieve things greater than the sum of our parts.

This is a genuine trilateral undertaking – all three nations stand ready to contribute and all three nations stand ready to benefit.

I look out from here today and I see new frontiers in innovation to cross. New breakthroughs in technology to achieve. A new course for us to chart, together.

Updated

Anthony Albanese:

From early in the next decade, Australia will take delivery of three US Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines.

This is the first time in 65 years – and only the second time in history – that the US has shared its nuclear propulsion technology.

We are also proud to partner with the United Kingdom to construct the next generation submarine, to be called SSN-Aukus. A new, conventionally armed, nuclear-powered, submarine – based on a British design, and incorporating cutting edge Australian, UK and US technologies.

This will be an Australian sovereign capability – built by Australians, commanded by the Royal Australian navy and sustained by Australians in Australian shipyards – with construction to begin within this decade.

Australia’s proud record of leadership in the international nuclear non-proliferation regime will continue.

We will of course continue to adhere to our obligations under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and the treaty of Rarotonga.

Our agreement unlocks a set of transformative opportunities – for jobs and skills and research and innovation. In Adelaide and Barrow-in-Furness. In Western Australia and here in the United States.

Opportunities that will shape, and strengthen, and grow Australia’s economy for decades and create around 20,000 direct jobs for Australians from many trades and specialisations.

Engineers, scientists, technicians, submariners, administrators and trades people. Good jobs, with good wages, working to ensure the stability and prosperity of our nations, our region, and our world.

Our future security will be built and maintained not just by the courage and professionalism of our defence forces, but by the hard work and knowhow of our scientists and engineers, our technicians and programmers, electricians and welders.

For Australia, this whole-of-nation effort also presents a whole-of-nation opportunity.

Updated

Albanese speaks at announcement of Aukus subs deal

The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, told the two leaders he was “honoured to stand alongside you both – here, overlooking the Pacific Ocean – as leaders of true and trusted friends of Australia”.

Albanese said:

Today a new chapter in the relationship between our nation, the United States and the United Kingdom begins – a friendship built on shared values, our commitment to democracy and our common vision for a peaceful and prosperous future.

The Aukus agreement we confirm here in San Diego represents the biggest single investment in Australia’s defence capability in our history – strengthening Australia’s national security and stability in our region, building a future made in Australia with record investments in skills, jobs and infrastructure, and delivering a superior defence capability into the future.

My government is determined to invest in our defence capability. We are also determined to promote security by investing in our relationships across our region.

(That last point is a nod to his diplomatic efforts across the region.)

Updated

Biden finishes with:

The unprecedented trilateral cooperation is a testament to the strength and to the shared commitment of ensuring that the Indo-Pacific remains free and open, prosperous and secure, defined by opportunity for all. A shared commitment to create a future rooted in our common values.

That is the objective the United States shares not only with the United Kingdom and Australia, it’s shared by our friends in the region, our friends in Asean, the Pacific Islands Forum and the Quad and other treaty partners in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. Aukus has one overriding objective.

To enhance the stability of the Indo-Pacific amid rapidly shifting global dynamics.

In this first project, this first project is only beginning. More partnerships and more potential. More peace and security in the region lies ahead.

Simply stated, we’re putting ourselves in the strongest possible position to navigate the challenges of today and tomorrow, together. Together.

So I thank you again, Prime Minister Albanese, Prime Minister Sunak, and the United States could not ask for two better friends or partners to stand with as we work to create a safer, more peaceful future for the people everywhere.

I’m proud to be your shipmates!

Updated

Joe Biden again emphasises that the submarines will not have nuclear weapons, and takes the chance to crack a little joke:

I want to reiterate, again, the SSN-Aukus will not have nuclear weapons. It will become a future standard for both the UK and Australian navy.

It will meet the defence needs while bringing the engineers, the shipbuilders, the industrial workforce, our countries, closer together, closer than ever.

Let me emphasise again – nuclear propulsion is tested and safe. The United States and the UK have used it for nearly 70 years with spotless yesterday.

Combined between the US and the UK, all of our nuclear-powered ships have travelled the entire globe around the entire globe, more than 150 million miles.

That’s going to the moon 350 times. We can’t figure out how to get a sub to the moon, but we’ll figure it out.

Updated

Joe Biden mentioned that the USS Asheville – a Los Angeles-class submarine – was visiting Western Australia now. A reminder that the US embassy announced this nearly two weeks ago.

The embassy said then that the USS Asheville arrived at the HMAS Stirling Naval Base in Western Australia “for combined training exercises with Royal Australian Navy submarine forces as part of a regularly scheduled patrol in the Indo-Pacific region”.

Updated

Biden:

There’s a reason why not everyone has nuclear-powered submarines. Nuclear propulsion is a highly complicated technology that requires years of training to master. So we’re starting right away. Beginning this year, Australian personnel will embed with US and UK crews on boats and at bases in our schools and shipyards. We’ll increase our port visits to Australia.

In fact, as we speak, the nuclear-powered sub is making a port call in Perth.

And later this year, there will be a rotational presence of nuclear-powered subs to Australia to help develop the workforce it will need to build.

One of the vessels you see behind me is the Virginia-class submarine, USS Missouri.

Top-of-the-line submarines are the vanguard of US naval power. And excuse me for a point of personal privilege, as they say in the United States Senate where I spend a lot of time – these submarines hold a special place for the Bidens. My wife, Jill Biden, is a sponsor of the USS Delaware, a Virginia-class submarine, and she never lets me forget it!

(There is polite laughter at this)

Updated

Biden:

Each of us standing here today representing the United States, Australia and Great Britain, is deeply committed to strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation regime.

We’ve undertaken this project working hand in glove with the International Atomic Energy Agency and with director general Grossi.

Australia will not produce nuclear fuel needed for the submarines.

We’ve set the highest standards with the IAEA for verification and transparency, and we will honour each of our country’s international obligations.

Working together these past 18 months, we’ve developed a phased approach that’s going to make sure Australian sailors are fully prepared to operate the fleet to deliver the critical capacity on the fastest, fastest possible timetable.

Each of our nations is making concrete commitments to one another. We’re backing it up with significant investments to strengthen the industrial bases in each of our countries in order to build and support these boats.

By the way – this partnership is going to mean an awful lot for good paying jobs, for all workers in our countries, including a lot of union jobs.

Updated

Biden:

So today, as we stand at the inflection point in history where the hard work of announcing deterrence and enhancing stability is going to reflect peace and stability for decades to come, the United States can ask for no better partners in the Indo-Pacific where so much of our shared future will be written.

Forging this new partnership, we’re showing again how democracies can deliver, how our own security and prosperity and not just for us, but for the entire world.

Today, we’re announcing the steps to carry out our first project under Aukus and developing Australia’s conventionally armed nuclear armed submarine capacity. And I want to be clear. I want to be clear from the outset right off the bat so there’s no confusion or misunderstanding at this critical point – these subs are powered - not nuclear armed subs.

They’re nuclear powered - not nuclear armed.

Australia is a proud non-nuclear weapons state, and it’s committed to stay that way. These boats will not have any nuclear weapons of any kind on them.

Joe Biden:

It’s an honour, honour to be here to welcome Prime Minister Albanese and Prime Minister Sunak. And it’s my honour to welcome them both to the United States as they take the next critical step in advancing the Australia-US-UK partnership, Aukus.

It’s an unusual name, Aukus, but it’s a powerful entity! You know, when our countries first announced Aukus 18 months ago, I’m not at all sure that anyone believed how much progress we’d be able to make together and how quickly we’d accomplish it.

Biden continues:

[It is a] testament to the strong and deep support for this partnership across the United States. Australia and the United Kingdom are two of America’s most stalwart and capable allies. Our common values, our shared vision for a more peaceful and prosperous future, unite us all across the Atlantic and the Pacific.

For more than a century, we’ve stood together to defend freedom and strengthen democracy and to spur greater opportunity in all of our countries.

I’ve always said, when I’m asked is the United States is a Pacific country … Around the Pacific Ocean, we are a Pacific power. The United States has [focused on] safety in the Indo-Pacific for decades to the enormous benefits of Asia, to Pacific Islanders and people in the People’s Republic of China.

It has been to the benefit of the entire world. We’ve kept the sea lanes and skies open and navigable for all. We’ve upheld the rules of the road that fuelled international commerce and our partnerships have helped underwrite incredible growth and innovation.

Updated

The music has started and Joe Biden, Anthony Albanese and Rishi Sunak are walking up to the lecterns – the announcement is begginning.

There are trumpets. Again, pageantry.

This meeting will be one of Arthur Sinodinos’s last acts as US ambassador – Kevin Rudd will be stepping into the role very soon.

Updated

Just three guys, sitting around, chatting nuclear submarines. As you do.

The three leaders will make their official announcement sometime around 8am AEDT.

US president Joe Biden participates in a trilateral meeting with British PM Rishi Sunak and Australian PM Anthony Albanese during the Aukus summit at Naval Base Point Loma in San Diego, California
US president Joe Biden participates in a trilateral meeting with British PM Rishi Sunak and Australian PM Anthony Albanese during the Aukus summit at Naval Base Point Loma in San Diego, California. Photograph: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

For those wondering, the giant flags on the USS Missouri, where the official announcement will be made, are in order of the nations in Aukus – so Australia, the UK and the US.

There also seems to be a lot of naval officers taking what will be very bad photos, given how quickly they seem to be throwing the phone up and hitting the shutter. There hasn’t been any time for composition.

One of the key points of interest was always going to be whether South Australia was unhappy with the “off-the-shelf” solution (buying three to five Virginia class submarines in the 2030s) as a stopgap to domestic production.

But the Labor premier of South Australia, Peter Malinauskas, appears happy. According to the information released today, “enabling works” will start this year in Osborne, South Australia, because the shipyard will be almost three times larger than the yard forecast for the abandoned French submarine program.

The Australian government argues up to 4,000 workers will be employed to design and build the infrastructure for the submarine construction yard in Osborne at the peak. In 20 to 30 years, a further 4,000 to 5,500 direct jobs are expected to be created (double the workforce for the French program).

Malinauskas has put his name to a joint statement with the federal government, which says South Australian industry “will see a major capability and capacity uplift as it takes its place at the forefront of one of Australia’s greatest industrial undertakings”. The statement says there will be an estimated investment in South Australia of $2bn over first four years.

Malinauskas said:

The significance of this moment cannot be overstated. The Aukus submarines will be the most complex machines that have ever been built in human history. And they will be built here in South Australia. But it is not just the thousands of workers to be employed at Osborne who will benefit.

This is a transformational opportunity to increase our economic complexity. That means more highly skilled, highly paid jobs across our economy that will help lift the standard of living for generations of South Australians. We now have a massive task ahead of us to prepare the highly skilled workforce to capitalise on this historic opportunity.

Updated

What does Australia “strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation regime” mean?

The White House says:

Our nations have made clear commitments to meet these objectives, including that:

  • As a non-nuclear-weapon state, Australia does not – and will not – seek to acquire nuclear weapons;

  • Australia will not enrich uranium or reprocess spent fuel as part of this program;

  • Australia will not produce its own nuclear fuel for its SSNs;

  • The United Kingdom and United States intend to provide Australia with nuclear material in complete, welded power units that will not require refueling during their lifetime;

  • The nuclear fuel that Australia receives cannot be used in nuclear weapons without further chemical processing, which would require facilities that Australia does not have and will not seek; and

  • This initiative will occur within the framework of Australia’s Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) and Additional Protocol (AP) with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Updated

The White House has released a fact sheet on the agreement. Among the fact breakdown is how Australia will manage the nuclear waste generated through the submarine program:

Responsible Stewardship of Naval Nuclear Propulsion Technology

All three nations appreciate the enormity of this endeavor and are committed to the principles that have upheld the United Kingdom and United States naval nuclear propulsion programs’ unmatched safety records. For over 60 years, the United Kingdom and United States have operated more than 500 naval nuclear reactors that have collectively travelled more than 150 million miles – the equivalent of over 300 trips to the moon and back – without incident or adverse effect on human health or the quality of the environment. Australia is committed to upholding these same standards to safely steward naval nuclear propulsion technology.

As part of this commitment to nuclear stewardship, Australia has committed to managing all radioactive waste generated through its nuclear-powered submarine program, including spent nuclear fuel, in Australia. The United Kingdom and the United States will assist Australia in developing this capability, leveraging Australia’s decades of safely and securely managing radioactive waste domestically. Australia will manage these materials in accordance with its nuclear non-proliferation and other international obligations and commitments.

Updated

Given the UK tories adopting Australia’s “stop the boats” policy, “shared vision” here now means quite a few things.

Updated

That statement continued:

This plan is designed to support Australia’s development of the infrastructure, technical capabilities, industry and human capital necessary to produce, maintain, operate, and steward a sovereign fleet of conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines. Australia is fully committed to responsible stewardship of naval nuclear propulsion technology.

When we announced the AUKUS partnership in September 2021, we committed to set the highest nuclear non-proliferation standard. The plan we announce today delivers on this commitment and reflects our longstanding leadership in, and respect for, the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. We continue to consult with the International Atomic Energy Agency to develop a non-proliferation approach that sets the strongest precedent for the acquisition of a nuclear-powered submarine capability.

Our plan elevates all three nations’ industrial capacity to produce and sustain interoperable nuclear-powered submarines for decades to come, expands our individual and collective undersea presence in the Indo-Pacific, and contributes to global security and stability. In these outcomes, AUKUS reflects the principle that shared action, taken in partnership, can benefit all.

Implementing AUKUS will also require robust, novel information sharing and technology cooperation. Our nations are committed to further trilateral collaboration that will strengthen our joint capabilities, enhance our information and technology sharing, and integrate our industrial bases and supply chains while strengthening the security regimes of each nation.

For more than a century, our three nations have stood shoulder to shoulder, along with other allies and partners, to help sustain peace, stability, and prosperity around the world, including in the Indo-Pacific. We believe in a world that protects freedom and respects human rights, the rule of law, the independence of sovereign states, and the rules-based international order. The steps we are announcing today will help us to advance these mutually beneficial objectives in the decades to come.

Updated

And now the three-way joint announcement is out – the three leaders have released a statement ahead of their appearance on the USS Missouri within the next hour.

From the statement:

In September 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced AUKUS – a new security partnership that will promote a free and open Indo-Pacific that is secure and stable.

The first major initiative of Aukus was our historic trilateral decision to support Australia acquiring conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs). Today, we announce our pathway to achieve this critical capability.

Together we will deliver SSN-Aukus – a trilaterally-developed submarine based on the United Kingdom’s next-generation design that incorporates technology from all three nations, including cutting edge U.S. submarine technologies. Australia and the United Kingdom will operate SSN-Aukus as their submarine of the future. Australia and the United Kingdom will begin work to build SSN-Aukus in their domestic shipyards within this decade.

In order to deliver conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines to Australia at the earliest possible date, we intend to pursue the following phased approach, moving through each phase based on mutual commitments from each nation:

  • Beginning in 2023, Australian military and civilian personnel will embed with the U.S. Navy, the Royal Navy, and in the United States and United Kingdom submarine industrial bases to accelerate the training of Australian personnel. The United States plans to increase SSN port visits to Australia beginning in 2023, with Australian sailors joining U.S. crews for training and development; the United Kingdom will increase visits to Australia beginning in 2026.

  • As early as 2027, the United States and United Kingdom plan to begin forward rotations of SSNs to Australia to accelerate the development of the Australian naval personnel, workforce, infrastructure and regulatory system necessary to establish a sovereign SSN capability.

  • Starting in the early 2030s, pending Congressional approval, the United States intends to sell Australia three Virginia class submarines, with the potential to sell up to two more if needed. This step will systematically grow Australia’s sovereign SSN capability and support capacity.

  • In the late 2030s, the United Kingdom will deliver its first SSN-AUKUS to the Royal Navy. Australia will deliver the first SSN-AUKUS built in Australia to the Royal Australian Navy in the early 2040s.

Updated

And the second half of that announcement:

Our plan elevates Australia’s industrial capacity to produce and sustain advanced SSNs, alongside our AUKUS partners.

Importantly, the SSNs will be an Australian sovereign capability, commanded by the Royal Australian Navy and sustained by Australians in Australian shipyards.
Australia has a proud record of leadership in the international nuclear non-proliferation regime.

Australia and our Aukus partners are committed to setting the highest nuclear non-proliferation standard for Australia’s acquisition of SSNs, in continued close cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

These enhanced defence capabilities will make Australia and our partners better able to deter conflict, and help ensure stability and strategic balance are maintained in the Indo-Pacific.

Together with our Aukus partners, the Albanese Government will deliver the Optimal Pathway, providing a superior and sovereign capability, generations of jobs and a record level of investment which will keep Australians safe.

Updated

The official announcement from Anthony Albanese and Richard Marles is also out:

Today’s significant Aukus announcement about Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines is the single biggest investment in our defence capability in our history and represents a transformational moment for our nation, our Defence Force and our economy.

The agreement will:

  • Strengthen Australia’s national security and contribute to regional stability in response to unprecedented strategic challenges.

  • Build a future made in Australia, by Australians, with record investments in defence, skills, jobs and infrastructure.

  • Deliver a superior capability after a decade of inaction and mismanagement.

Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States have agreed to a phased approach that delivers on the commitments of the Albanese Government and provides significant, long-term strategic benefits for all three countries.

For Australia, the three key elements are:

  • Increased visits of US submarines commencing in 2023 and UK submarines from 2026, and, beginning in 2027, rotations of UK and US submarines to Australia – this will be key to Australian jobs, infrastructure, technology and our ability to be sovereign ready.

  • From as early as the 2030s, delivery of three US Virginia class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia – ensuring there is no capability gap.

  • Australia and the UK will deliver SSN-AUKUS, a new conventionally-armed nuclear-powered submarine, based on a UK design, incorporating cutting edge Australian, UK and US technologies. The UK will deliver its own first SSN-AUKUS in the late 2030s, with the first SSN-AUKUS built in Australia delivered in the early 2040s.

We expect the phased approach will result in $6 billion invested in Australia’s industrial capability and workforce over the next four years, creating around 20,000 direct jobs over the next 30 years.

This whole of nation effort also presents a whole of nation opportunity; for new jobs, new industries, and new expertise in science, technology, and cyber.

Businesses right across the country in every state and territory will have the opportunity to contribute to and benefit from these opportunities over decades.

Over the next four years, this will see $2 billion in expected investment into South Australia, and a further $1 billion in Western Australia.

This commitment from the Australian Government will require funding for the phased approach to amount to around 0.15 per cent of GDP per year, averaged over the life of the program.

Updated

The press releases have started rolling in. South Australia will be the home of the Australian nuclear-powered submarine construction – they will be built at Osborne.

This will see an estimated investment in South Australia of $2bn over the Forward Estimates.

The Submarine Construction Yard created for the build of our next-generation nuclear-powered submarines will be almost three times larger than the yard forecast for the Attack class program.

The work in South Australia begins right away – we are already investing in the workforce required and putting in place the infrastructure to support the build.

At its peak, up to 4,000 workers will be employed to design and build the infrastructure for the Submarine Construction Yard in Osborne, South Australia.

A further 4,000 to 5,500 direct shipyard jobs are expected to be created to build nuclear-powered submarines in South Australia when the program reaches its peak – almost double the workforce forecast by the former Government for the Attack class program. This does not include the additional jobs created in the supply chain for the construction or sustainment of submarines.

Updated

You can read all about what we know, here:

So there you have it – Australia could spend up to $368bn between now and the mid-2050s for up to five US submarines (at least three, another two if needed) and helping to subsidise the US production (because the US can’t keep up with the demand for the Virginia class submarines).

That will also cover the development of the Adelaide shipyard (at Osborne) to build the future Australian-British submarine.

Still, that is an absolutely eye-watering cost.

Updated

Key points of Aukus submarine deal

Daniel Hurst has also broken the announcement down into key points for you:

  • Australia’s entire nuclear-powered submarine program - including acquisition, construction and sustainment - is forecast to cost $268bn to $368bn between now and the mid 2050s, most of it beyond the first four-year budget period. This includes $9bn over the initial four-year budget period. The $9bn over the forward estimates is an increase of $3bn compared with the $6bn earmarked for the abandoned French project - and Defence is being asked to offset that $3bn.

  • Australian shipyard and design construction is expected to begin from 2023. This will include “enabling works this year” in Osborne, South Australian, because the shipyard will be almost three times larger than the yard forecast for the abandoned French submarine program. The government argues up to 4,000 workers will be employed to design and build the infrastructure for the submarine construction yard in Osborne at the peak. In 20 to 30 years, a further 4,000 to 5,500 direct jobs are expected tone created (doubled the workforce for the French program).

  • Australia and the UK plan to start building the SSN-Aukus submarine in their domestic shipyards “beyond the end of this decade” (starting in the 2020s). But building submarines is a major endeavour, and the government believes the first Australian-built SSN-Aukus would not be finished and delivered to the Royal Australian Navy until the early 2040s.

Updated

Submarine program to roll out in four phases

Daniel Hurst is out of the Aukus lockup – here is his first take.

The main phases of the plan:

1. From this year, Australian military and civilian personnel are set to embed with the United States Navy, the United Kingdom Royal Navy “and, subject to any necessary arrangements, within the United States and United Kingdom submarine industrial bases”.

This aims to boost training and development of Australian personnel. The US will also increase nuclear-powered submarine port visits to Australia from this year, with Australian sailors joining US crews for training and development, whereas the UK is set to increase visits to Australia from 2026.

2. From 2027 at the earliest, the UK and the US plan to establish a rotational presence of one UK Astute class submarine and up to four US Virginia class submarines at HMAS Stirling near Perth, Western Australia.

This will be called ‘Submarine Rotational Force-West’ (SRF-West). The Australian government argues this rotational presence “will comply fully with Australia’s longstanding position of no foreign bases on its territory” because these submarines will be rotated through the location and will not be permanently based in Australia. The three countries argue the rotational presence will “put our nations shoulder to shoulder as Australia builds the necessary operational capabilities and skills to steward and operate its own fleet of nuclear-powered submarines”.

3. Beginning in the early 2030s, the US intends to sell Australia three Virginia class submarines, with the potential to sell up to two more if needed (all pending approval from the US Congress).

The three governments argue this is “critical to continue growing Australia’s ability to own and operate a fleet of SSNs, and to provide Australia with a sovereign capability at the earliest possible date” while not allowing a capability gap caused by the retirement of Australia’s conventional Collins class submarines from the 2030s.

4. The final phase is the delivery of the so-called “SSN-Aukus”, a nuclear-powered attack submarine based on a UK design and featuring advanced US technology. This design will eventually be used by both the UK and Australia. The first Australian-built SSN-Aukus would be delivered to the Royal Australian Navy in the early 2040s.

Updated

The USS Missouri in San Diego is the backdrop for the submarine announcement – along with three of the biggest flags I have ever seen.

The US certainly knows pageantry.

Once the dust has settled on this announcement, it is all going to be about how Australia pays for this.

Estimates have ranged from $170bn to $200bn over the next 30 years. That figure will probably end up looking conservative though –anyone with anything to do with defence contracts knows how these things tend to blow out the budget.

Peter Dutton on ABC 7.30 last night said the Coalition would be willing to provide bipartisan support to make the budget work, mentioning support for potential cuts to the national disability insurance scheme.

Paul Karp reports on that here:

Meanwhile, the Coalition is ready to go to war over super tax concession changes that will only impact earnings over $3m and has flat out dismissed any changes to the stage three tax cuts which are estimated to cost the budget $243bn in lost revenue over the next decade.

Updated

‘It’s been well-received’

Anthony Albanese held a bilateral meeting with Rishi Sunak in San Diego yesterday, where the submarine announcement will be made in imminently.

Both were keen to emphasise “the region” in their comments.

Albanese:

Aukus has been a lot of hard work. But it is in the three countries’ interests. The sum of the three is more than one plus one plus one in this case. And I think that the cooperation we’ve had is really exciting. We see that this is an investment in our capability. But at the same time, of course, we’re investing in our relationships in the region as well. And I’ve been talking with other leaders in the region, as well, explaining our position. And it’s been well-received and understood why we’re doing this. It builds on our long-term relationship.

Sunak:

I know that we’re very excited about it. It’s about our commitment to the Pacific region, which, even though it’s geographically a long way from where we are, it’s important in a way to demonstrate our commitment to the values that we hold dear as countries. But also, it is a good year for UK-Australia more generally. We’ve got a free trade agreement, which is going to get passed through and be enforced. And also, hopefully we will get the English Lionesses to be raising the World Cup later. We’ll see how that goes. That should be exciting for us.

Updated

A ‘generational challenge’

Daniel Hurst also sat down with the head of Australia’s nuclear-powered submarine taskforce, Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead, to talk about what this generational change will mean:

Australia will put nuclear safety “above all else” as it begins the “generational challenge” of building and operating nuclear-powered submarines under the Aukus pact, the government’s top adviser has said.

Jonathan Mead has moved to allay concerns – both at home and across the region – about nuclear safety as Australia, the US and the UK prepare to announce their detailed plans within days.

The head of the Australian government’s nuclear-powered submarine taskforce has also insisted that the likely presence of American and British personnel on Australian boats would not inhibit Australian command and control.

Updated

‘We have never operated a military capability at this level before’

The Aukus agreement itself, which was signed by the previous prime minister Scott Morrison, has caused some reflection from the Albanese government, given what it means for Australia’s strategic step-up, as Daniel Hurst examined a couple of days ago:

There was a moment in federal parliament this week when the seriousness of the looming Aukus announcement seemed to dawn on the defence minister, Richard Marles.

“It is difficult to overstate the step that, as a nation, we are about to take,” Marles, in the acting prime minister’s chair, solemnly told the chamber on Thursday.

“Australia will become just the seventh country to have the ability to operate a nuclear-powered submarine. We have never operated a military capability at this level before.”

The statement may not have been intended to raise doubts about whether Australia is up to the task – but it does happen to underline the extremely complex undertaking the country is about to pursue.

Updated

Speculation running hot

Defence watchers are keenly waiting to see how the agreement will play out for Australia:

Australia is set to within a couple of weeks learn some basic details about a program that could cost more than $170bn and will run for decades.

The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, this week warned against opting for a new UK design. For now though, the Aukus submarine program is a “black box”, says Tom Corben, a foreign policy and defence research fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre.

“We’re just speculating until we get the announcement,” he says, adding that the secret has been very well kept, considering the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, is set to go to the US to announce it in March.

And that speculation is running almost as hot as it was in 2016, when France, Germany and Japan were competing to build a replacement for Australia’s ageing Collins class fleet.

Updated

Reassurance for jittery neighbours

Before we get to the announcement, it is worth looking back at how we got here.

There have been some understandable jitters from our regional neighbours since the Aukus deal was announced, as Daniel Hurst has reported:

The Australian government has sought to assure south-east Asian and Pacific countries that its nuclear-powered submarine plan – to be announced early next week – aims to safeguard “the peace and the stability of our region”.

After a series of leaks about the potential shape of the Aukus deal, the opposition offered bipartisan support to the government’s overall decisions, while pledging to “fight to make sure the outcome is achieved as quickly as possible”.

The comments follow a report by the Guardian that the long-term plan for Australian nuclear-powered submarines would likely involve a British submarine design with heavy use of American technology.

Updated

We’ll get these answers very soon – but here is a list of questions ahead of the nuclear submarine announcement, including what we know so far and what we are still waiting to learn. But there is only a few minutes to go.

Updated

Good morning

Welcome to a special edition of our Australia news live blog as we await the details of the Australia, UK and US strategic agreement, Aukus.

Australia is about to learn the fineprint of the nuclear-powered submarine plan, with the leaders of the three nations coming together in the US to make the announcement.

The US president, Joe Biden, the British PM, Rishi Sunak, and the Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, are in the US for the photo op of photo ops – there has been immense speculation about this agreement – so this should answer *most* questions.

We will bring you everything you need to know as soon as the embargo lifts. Our defence and foreign affairs correspondent, Daniel Hurst, will bring you the Australian angles as they emerge, while our UK and US colleagues will cover the international response.

Ready?

Let’s get into it.

Updated

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Sabrina Carpenter Was Worried Releasing "Espresso" as a Summer Song Might Be a Mistake
"I had literally no idea that anyone would like it, but I liked it, and that was kind of all that mattered to me in that moment, and something I try to remember over and over again," she says of releasing the song when she did in spite of her…
Marie Claire
Marie Claire
Pet cats in Los Angeles County are catching bird flu from raw food, milk
The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has warned that raw pet food products have tested positive for bird flu and sickened pet cats in the area.
LiveScience
LiveScience
Leonardo DiCaprio ‘doesn’t see himself ever getting married’
Despite gossip he had secretly popped the question to his model girlfriend, Leonardo DiCaprio reportedly “doesn’t see himself ever getting married”.
BANG Premier
BANG Premier
Arby's sued twice over growing problem in alarming fast food trend
Arby's gets hit with two lawsuits over an alarmingly growing problem among fast food chains.
The Street
The Street
Billie Jean King revives one of last year's biggest design trends on her bookshelf – it's a 'gallery-like space' with a personal twist
The tennis star reminds us why 2024's most talked-about style isn't slowing down for the year ahead – designers love her styling method
Homes & Gardens
Homes & Gardens
How to replace black plastic tools for a healthier, non-toxic kitchen in 2025
Out with the old utensils and in with the new
Homes & Gardens
Homes & Gardens
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.
Download on the AppStore Get it on Google Play