The decision of the Congress to field Punjab Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi from two constituencies in the upcoming 2022 Punjab Assembly election, could end up as a double-edged sword for the party’s electoral prospects.
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Mr. Channi would be contesting from Bhadaur, (Scheduled Caste) constituency in Barnala district and from Chamkaur Sahib, which he has represented thrice in the Assembly.
The Congress’s decision indicates that the party is betting its electoral fortunes on the Dalits, as the State has close to 32% population of the Scheduled Caste community, the highest in the country. With the party fielding Mr. Channi, the first Dalit Chief Minister of Punjab from two constituencies, a hint has been dropped that he could be the party’s Chief Ministerial face for the upcoming poll. Congress leader and former president Rahul Gandhi had recently on his Punjab visit stated that the party would be soon announcing its Chief Ministerial candidate.
The decision of fielding Mr. Channi from the Bhadaur (SC) seat could mainly split the votes of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which has a strong presence in Bhadaur and neighbouring constituencies, including Mehalkalan, Dirba, Sunam and Lehra of the Malwa region. Bhadaur constituency falls in the Sangrur parliamentary constituency, from where AAP’s Bhagwant Mann is currently the Member of Parliament. Mr. Mann, who is AAP’s Chief Ministerial candidate is contesting from Dhuri constituency, which is a part of the Sangrur district. In 2017, Pirmal Singh Dhaula of the AAP won from Bhadaur. He later joined the Congress though.
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Both the constituencies — Bhadaur and Chamkaur Sahib from where Mr. Channi will be contesting — are reserved seats and fall in the Malwa region, which comprises 69 Assembly constituencies of the total 117 seats in the State. Punjab is broadly divided into Malwa, Doaba and Majha regions. The Majha region has 25 Assembly seats while Doaba accounts for 23. In the 2017 Assembly elections, of the 20 AAP MLAs, 18 won from the Malwa region.
The Congress is seen predominantly focusing on wooing the SC community votes, but in this exercise, the party could alienate the Jat Sikhs, which could work against the party’s ambition to regain power in Punjab. Political observers feel that the Congress’s decision to field Mr. Channi from the Malwa region could impact the prospects of the AAP. On the other hand, it could also dent the Congress’s Jat Sikh support, which is a dominant class in Malwa.
“With Mr. Channi contesting from Bhadaur, the major impact would be seen on the AAP’s vote bank as his presence would influence Dalit votes in Bhadaur as well as neighbouring seats. Besides, Mr. Channi has been sent to Malwa to counter the AAP in an attempt to negate whatever boost the party could have got from announcing Bhagwant Mann as its CM face. And they may succeed in this attempt as it may give an advantage to the Congress viz-a-viz the AAP,” Pramod Kumar, director of the Institute for Development and Communication in Chandigarh, told The Hindu.
Ashutosh Kumar, professor of political science at the Panjab University, believes that by fielding Mr. Channi from Bhadaur, the Congress seems to be attempting to contain the impact of AAP by garnering the Dalit votes in the Malwa region. “However, by over-focusing on Dalit votes, the party stands a chance of alienating the Jat Sikh voters — this may prove to be a double-edged sword for Congress’s electoral prospects,” he said.
In Punjab, the Jat Sikhs population is around 20%. Since 1977, the State has never seen a non-Jat Sikh Chief Minister — be it of the Congress or the Shiromani Akali Dal, indicating the political dominance of the Jat Sikh community. Giani Zail Singh was the last non-Jat Sikh Chief Minister of Punjab between 1972-77.
“The Chief Minister in Punjab has been mostly a Jat Sikh. In the Congress, Mr. Channi can be seen asserting his leadership - this assertion is surely going to create flutter among the Jat Sikh leaders. It’s natural to have an edginess among the community if they see losing the power seat,” added Mr. Kumar.
