I've been watching Newcastle’s transfer business with interest this summer…and I can guarantee the entire Premier League will be too.
It’s been a bit weird, because no one from any of the clubs in the top flight has really voiced what everyone is thinking: they can change the shape of English football forever. Without doubt, the owners of the club have the capacity to outspend any club in the world, IF they are allowed to.
We’ve seen what PSG have done in the transfer market, and the disastrous effect that has had on some clubs, like Barcelona, trying to compete with them. We’ve seen the impact Manchester City have had too.
If Newcastle’s owners can find a way to manoeuvre through the FFP rules and the Premier League’s profit and sustainability legislation, then they really will be able to compete with those two clubs, and every one of the big guns in English football. I have no doubt they will try, too. The club is owned by the Saudi nation’s Public Investment Fund, and there’s a clue in the title. Newcastle is an investment, and there is a desire to see a return on that investment.
How to do that? Well, simply, grow the club. And that means investing in players, investing in all the things that support the players like training ground, medical support, analysis, fitness, conditioning. Do you know how many French titles Paris Saint-Germain had won before Qatar Sports Investments took over? Two. Since they did, they’ve won eight. And changed European football. They are basically owned by an investment arm of the Qatar ruler, just as Newcastle are owned by a sovereign investment fund. The impact can be the same, if the Saudis can spend big.
Which is why the whole Premier League is watching so closely. The likes of Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea now, and even Liverpool despite their recent success, know the league will change completely if they do. The likes of West Ham, Villa, Leicester and Wolves who have ambitions of breaking into the top six will know they face a tough battle to do that. And even the likes of Manchester City and Manchester United will know they could eventually be facing a war in the transfer market.
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I think Everton will be watching closely too. They definitely had ambitions to break into the top six, and were back not just by a billionaire owner, but by a sponsor in Farhad Moshiri who was amongst the world’s wealthiest people. I don’t know the ins and outs of what has happened there, but I know plenty of people connected to the club, and they all tell me the same thing, the talks with the Premier League over the profit and sustainability rules have made life difficult in the transfer market.
The way I understand it, and I could be wrong, is that they’ve had to run everything by the Premier League, and that is why Richarlison was sold - to balance the books and avoid punishments. I don’t think they are out of the woods yet, either, I don’t think they can simply resume spending now, without clearance from the league. So they will be watching the Newcastle situation like a hawk. Newcastle have done some good business so far. I said this a few years ago, when Pep Guardiola went out and spent - what seemed at the time! - £50m each on four defenders, to strengthen his back line. For me, that is the key to success.
Look at PSG. You can have all the attacking talent you want, but if your defence is dodgy, then it’s hellish hard to win the biggest trophies, even if it’s still pretty easy to win Ligue 1…! Sven Botman is a good signing. A young centre half who is still developing, and no doubt can become one of the best in the world, with the right coaching. That’s what they need, a solid defender who can bring the ball out of defence too.
Nick Pope too, gives them a quality keeper, while they’ve also spent £15m on making left-back Matt Targett’s loan move permanent. And I would expect more signings too. But how much have the new owners spent already, it’s around £150m isn’t it? And the rules say you have to cap your spending in relation to turnover. Again, I’m hardly an expert, but I think the crucial part is, club’s can’t now accept massive sponsorship deals from companies related to the owners, unless it is shown the deal is based on true market value.
Everton have been hit by the sanctions imposed on Alisher Usmanov, who was one of their main sponsors, and that has undoubtedly caused problems for them. I can bet they, and all the other clubs will be watching to see what Newcastle do in terms of sponsorship, because they’ve spent a fair amount already. I did hear they may have to sell Allan Saint-Maximin to help balance the books, so that suggests the Premier League is also watching closely. But the fact remains, their owners can blow everyone out of the water…and they will want to do that, to get Newcastle into the top four, and amongst Europe’s elite clubs. The only two questions remaining are, how long will that take, and how will they do it within the rules?
