Down in the polls but not without a shot in the New Zealand election, Labour's hopes for a third term rest on one factor above all others.
Turnout.
It then needs Winston Peters' surge to come to halt, and to convince around three per cent from the right to switch support by polling day on October 14.
It's a narrow path to power, but it's also remarkable that they have one at all given how far they've fallen.
In 2020, Kiwis rewarded Jacinda Ardern for her government's COVID-19 response with a historic 50 per cent share of the vote.
A current polling average has opposition National with 37 per cent support and Labour on just 27 per cent.
Richard Harman, who has covered every Kiwi election since 1981 including four as TVNZ political editor and now with his own outlet Politik, says convincing traditional Labour voters to turnout was always a tough task.
"The first thing that Labour will be looking to do is to get their vote out," he tells AAP.
"That is probably their biggest single challenge. We know they've been focusing on that now for about two or three weeks."
Senior Labour sources, speaking privately, say that work is happening at pace behind the scenes: including targeted door-knocking and phone banking.
Turnout is currently tracking well below 2020's COVID-inflated levels, but just above 2017.
Leader Chris Hipkins is also engaged in a vicious attack on National's tax plans, public service cuts, and disunity on the right to scare away soft National support.
Radio NZ political editor Jane Patterson, who has covered five prime ministers during her career, said Labour needed to jump higher as well.
"Their drop in support has been a trend baking into the polls since the start of the year. It isn't a rogue dip," she tells AAP.
"Its support is too weak to be in a commanding position to put together a coalition arrangement. It would be very difficult to do it from much lower than 30, 35 per cent."
In New Zealand's coalition-based politics, the gap between National and Labour is not the decisive factor: instead, it's support of overall blocs of the left and right.
National's support partners on the right include ACT, on nine per cent, and New Zealand First, on six, for a total of 52 per cent.
Labour also has two parties likely to join them in parliament, the Greens, on 12 per cent, and the Maori Party on three per cent, for a total of 42 per cent.
Parties need to poll at five per cent, or win an electorate seat as the Maori Party does, to send MPs to parliament.
If NZ First's support slipped below that threshold, it would miss out, effectively polling zero: meaning the right bloc's support slips to 46 per cent.
All of a sudden, the left, on 42 per cent, is just four per cent from victory.
"Which is why you're seeing them attack New Zealand First at the moment," Mr Harman says.
About 10-12 per cent of voters still are undecided according to polls, but a Labour win is not likely. Far from it.
"It would be an incredible turnaround," Ms Patterson said.
"You can't rule anything out but Labour has an incredibly big hill to climb."
Mr Harman, who has also covered federal elections in Australia, likened what Chris Hipkins needs to do to a poll 30 years ago.
"It'd be Keating in '93. That's the great model, the sweetest victory of all," he said.
"One for the true believers where he pulled it back in those last 10 days.
"But I don't think (NZ) Labour's in that position. They needed to be making movement in polls last week. I can't see how they can pull it back between now and election day."
