Joblessness is on the rise in New Zealand, though not as much as expected, due to many young people giving up on finding work.
On Wednesday, Stats NZ revealed New Zealand's unemployment rate had jumped to 4.8 per cent, up from 4.6 per cent in the June quarter.
That is the highest figure for four years, and if a temporary spike during COVID-19 lockdowns is excluded, the highest since 2017.
The Reserve Bank had forecast an unemployment rate of 5.0 per cent, with most banks also tipping a figure larger than the actual result.
In any case, New Zealand's current recessionary landscape leaves little doubt the unemployment figure will keep rising.
"The unemployment rate is set to approach 5.5 per cent by mid-2025," ASB senior economist Mark Smith said.
Stats NZ also released data on wage growth, which ran at 3.3 per cent in the year to September, or 0.6 per cent in the September quarter - both below forecasts.
ANZ senior economist Miles Workman said the figures showed the Reserve Bank's efforts to raise interest rates, which slowed the Kiwi economy in a bid to rein in inflation, was effective.
"Today's data provides further confirmation that past monetary tightening has done what it says on the tin, with stagnant economic momentum now very clearly translating into rising unemployment," he said.
"Given typical lags, today's data won't be the worst of it."
Mr Smith said the unemployment figure "could have been much higher (in the region of 5.3 per cent) if it were not for sharply falling labour force participation".
"The Q3 figures showed easing worker attachment to the labour force as the prospect of finding work diminishes," he said.
"Labour force participation rate fell sharply to 71.2 per cent of the working age population, the lowest in two years (and) falls were particularly heavy for younger age groups.
"The employment rate eased to 67.8 per cent, the lowest in three years."
Unemployment among Kiwis aged 20-24 grew to 8.4 per cent.
The fresh data has confirmed economists' views that New Zealanders are in line for another 50 basis point cut to the official cash rate (OCR) at the year-ending Reserve Bank meeting on November 27.
After 18 months at 5.5 per cent, the OCR is currently at 4.75 per cent, meaning a 50 basis point cut would take New Zealand's rate below Australia, which sits at 4.35 per cent.
