It should have been a close vote, given last week’s polls. But it seems money talks and sizeable donations to the National party, coupled with a mood for change, means we saw a very defeated Labour party on election night in New Zealand.
Labour’s poor showing was largely due to running a very meek and mild campaign until near the very end, and running scared of its own record in government. Chris Hipkins, the toppled prime minister, seems to have refused to run on Labour’s legacy in combating Covid until the last minutes of the campaign – presumably because he did not want to be overshadowed by the legacy of his predecessor, Jacinda Ardern.
Instead of touting the success of the coronavirus response or the impacts of policies, such as free school lunches, the various housing initiatives that have somewhat lowered prices and eased renter woes, changes to abortion law, fair pay legislation, winter energy and other cost of living payments, minimum wage increases, free prescription medication – the list goes on – they chose to run a lacklustre campaign centred on reviving a policy rejected in 2011 of removing tax from fresh fruit and vegetables.
In the voters’ minds, there was little difference between the National and Labour parties, so they opted for a change in personnel instead of a change in direction. In the televised debates, both leaders answered their rapid questions in almost exactly the same way. If you didn’t think there was any difference between the two parties, why wouldn’t you vote for someone new?
It did not feel as if Labour’s 2020 “mandate” – a near-historic victory – extended to big ticket issues, such as wealth tax or a capital gains tax. Its free dental policy for under 30s came too late, and it could not convince people that the tax off fruits and vegetables would actually be passed on to consumers by supermarkets. In return, voters turned their attention to other parties who were willing to take up the responsibility.
It is clear that Labour’s base swung towards the more left-leaning Greens, while its new supporters from 2020 returned to National as the shininess of the landslide victory wore off. Swing voters and undecided voters want to be on the winning side on election night, and it became clear as the campaign progressed that Labour wasn’t going to be it.
Labour expected this election to be close based on polling, and did not put in the work on the ground to lock in the votes. While its party vote was low compared with the polls, what’s more surprising is the safe seats it lost during the night to National and Green candidates.
Labour will be focused on the large number of lawmakers who will have fallen out of parliament on the results, but the real losers of this election are going to be beneficiaries, low-income families, public servants, young people wanting to buy their first homes, and those with illnesses requiring regular medicines, from which Labour had removed fees this year.
By the end of National’s first term, I believe we will see a major difference in governing styles and policy impacts. While I don’t think the electorate wants to lurch right, the effect of a coalition with the Act party – and potentially New Zealand First, if it’s needed to form a coalition – is going to be just that.
The electorate – according to opinion polls – wanted, for example, the implementation of a wealth tax, but timid Labour was unwilling to give it. So voters, instead, unsurprisingly opted to bring in fresh blood to bring about change another way. Now, there will be large tax cuts for landlords, foreigners will once again be allowed to buy New Zealand’s costliest homes, large public sector cuts have been promised, and many of Labour’s policies on housing, transport, climate and the cost of living will be reversed.
The country does not truly realise what it is in for. But you can’t blame people for hoping for something better after the past few years of pandemic fatigue, extreme weather events, and a never-ending cost of living crisis.
Lamia Imam is a political commentator and a former Labour party staffer
