New South Australian COVID-19 modelling shows next wave of cases coming in November

Mask-wearing may be encouraged when the new wave arrives, the Health Minister says. (ABC News: Che Chorley)

South Australia will face another COVID wave in November as immunity wanes, according to the latest modelling released by SA Health.

But following a meeting of the state's Emergency Management Council, Health Minister Chris Picton said the peak would not be as dramatic as COVID-19 waves SA had already experienced this year.

"Waning immunity is likely to lead to increased cases in November," he said.

But Mr Picton said the updated modelling did not account for a potential new variant that could infect even more people.

"That's impossible to model for but that's something that we're mindful for," he said.

Health Minister Chris Picton says hospitalisations are expected to follow new cases down. (ABC News)

Joshua Ross from the University of Adelaide, who provides SA Health with COVID modelling, explained how the increase would occur.

"Infections with COVID are declining at the moment as we currently have sufficient immunity in the population – from both vaccination and/or previous infections," Professor Ross said.

"Unfortunately, this immunity that reduces transmission of COVID, wanes with time and hence we expect to see another wave when the immunity in the population has reduced sufficiently.

"The good news is that in the absence of a new variant emerging before then, we expect the next wave to be smaller than previous waves we have experienced."

Modelling by University of Adelaide and SAHMRI shows cases will start to climb in November. (Supplied)

The latest COVID-19 wave peaked in July, with just over 5,000 cases, after higher peaks in January and April. 

With cases tipped to peak again, Mr Picton said the government might ask the public to take extra COVID precautions such as mask-wearing, but he was thankful a mandate was not needed during the recent wave.

South Australia recorded 850 new COVID-19 cases today, making it the fourth day in a row there have been fewer than 1,000 new infections.

South Australian Chief Public Health Officer Nicola Spurrier has previously warned of a summer COVID wave.

Mr Picton said it was clear the state had passed the peak of the current wave and that hospitalisations were expected to follow, but 242 people remain in hospital, including eight people in intensive care.

"We are still seeing high numbers of people in hospital, [but] we are hoping that will go down over coming weeks," Mr Picton said.

SA Health also reported 10 new deaths, with some of those dating back to April.

Mutations in the COVID-19 virus continue to pose a risk.